货 金 聚酯板块系列专题报告 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 融 研 究 院 ——基础知识篇 弘 业 期 01丨PTA基础知识 02丨MEG基础知识 03丨下游聚酯基础知识 PTA基础知识 什么是PTA 弘 业 期 货 金 融 Ø PTA在2006年12月登陆我国期货市场，是国内上市的第一个化工期货品种，也是脉络复杂的化工产业链中相对简单的一个品种。 研 究 院 Ø PTA是精对苯二甲酸的英文简称，在常温下是白色粉状晶体，无毒、无味、易燃，是下游产品聚酯的原料之一，终端需求主要 是纺织服装、软饮料。 数据来源：公开资料、弘业金融研究院 PTA的仓储和运输 PTA主流的存储是用包装袋打包，囤放在华东主港码头，PTA的仓 储地分布在长江沿岸（江苏段）、杭州湾和福建厦门等主流消费 地。因PTA主流的工厂在大连和宁波地区，一般PTA是走海运到长 江转口内河水路运输，运输成本相对便宜，部分上下游距离较近 企业汽运也有。 弘 业 期 货 金 小于150公里，槽罐 PTA 车运输，约30吨 江浙地区中长途运输 采用运河船舶单船载 重500-700吨 船舶，5000吨- 15000吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with low valuations, there is no need to chase short positions in the short term. For PX, supply continues to shrink, and the unilateral price rebounds. For PTA, the cost is supported, but the monthly spread is under pressure, with the unilateral price oscillating slightly stronger. For MEG, the unilateral price oscillates stably, and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG should be closed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The volatility of the unilateral price comes from crude oil. In July, the supply - demand of PX remains tight, and it is advisable to go long on the monthly spread at low prices. The PXN strengthens, and the gasoline cracking spread also strengthens, improving the refinery's enthusiasm for starting operations. The toluene disproportionation profit continues to rise, while the toluene chemical economy weakens month - on - month, and the MX chemical economy rebounds month - on - month [18][22][30]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The load of CICC Petrochemical decreases, and the PX load slightly drops. In July, attention should be paid to the maintenance plans of Tianjin Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. In May, the domestic PX output increased to 2.97 million tons, and the weekly operating rate was 83.8% (- 1.8%). The apparent consumption in May was 3.55 million tons. In May, the import volume increased to 773,000 tons month - on - month. The Asian PX device operating rate this week was 74.3% (- 1.3%). In May, the Longzhong PX monthly inventory decreased to 4.51 million tons [53][55][62][79]. 3.2 PTA 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The TA device load increases, and the volume of credit warehouse receipts increases at high prices. The cost rises, the PX profit decreases, and the PTA profit remains at a low level. The 9 - 1 monthly spread around 200 yuan is recommended to be closed or appropriately reverse - arbitraged [89][96][95]. 3.2.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The de - stocking intensity narrows, and this week may turn into a stocking pattern. In May, the PTA output was 5.91 million tons, a 1% increase month - on - month. The container freight rate drops, which is beneficial for exports. In May, the export volume was 270,000 tons, a significant decrease. The social inventory is 2.16 million tons (- 40,000 tons), the de - stocking slope slows down, and it will gradually turn into a stocking pattern in July [99][101][108][122]. 3.3 MEG 3.3.1 Valuation and Profit - With the return of Iranian supply and weakening demand, the monthly spread and basis drop significantly. The seasonal demand for ethylene oxide decreases, and attention should be paid to the conversion of production. The profits of coal - based, MTO, and ethylene - purchased MEG production decline from high levels, while the profit of naphtha - based MEG production recovers [130][134][136]. 3.3.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The device operating rate drops. In May, the ethylene glycol import volume was 600,000 tons, and the import from the Middle East decreased. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on ethylene glycol imports may be reflected in August. The import profit decreases month - on - month, which may affect the June imports. The port continues to de - stock, and the import volume will continue to increase to 110,000 - 120,000 tons next week [144][146][151][156]. 3.4 Polyester 3.4.1 Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. 3.4.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.2% (- 0.8%). Multiple polyester devices reduce production, and the overall load will drop to 89.3%. The polyester output increases by 8% year - on - year. This week, the sales are sluggish, and the downstream enters the off - season [160][163][166][168].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1]. - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering. The supply - demand structure in June still shows a favorable inventory reduction, but after the warehouse receipts are cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will increase. The load will return to a high level in July. Overseas, although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes. Later, the recovery of domestic production and the increase in Saudi supply will largely offset the impact of the shutdown of Iranian plants. On the demand side, the current situation is firm, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the end of June and beginning of July, and the demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3]. - For trading strategies, the short - term outlook is bullish. Attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and if the conflict eases, prices may fall. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1] Demand - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Inventory - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]