1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, with most being advised to be treated with a "sideways" approach, suggesting an overall "sideways" view for the oil - chemical industry [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic energy and chemical products continue to trade sideways. Some products like asphalt are strong, while others such as styrene are facing significant inventory pressure and are declining [2][3]. - The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policies [4][9]. - For each product, specific factors such as inventory levels, production, demand, and geopolitical events are driving their price movements and market trends [4]. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias. Geopolitical disturbances should be closely monitored [4][9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ production increases lead to a hard - to - reverse oversupply expectation. US production shows resilience, and future crude oil inventories face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases. Geopolitical events like Houthi attacks on oil tankers support the geopolitical premium [9]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premium drives the asphalt futures price to break through the 3500 pressure level [10]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns over potential US sanctions on Venezuela and the interruption of asphalt raw material supply drive up the futures price. However, the narrowing supply - demand gap and weak demand suggest that the high valuation of asphalt may not be sustainable [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Follows the upward movement of crude oil [4]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela increase the geopolitical premium. However, factors such as increased inventory and weak demand limit its upward potential [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Follows the sideways movement of crude oil [4]. - **Main Logic**: Faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. It has a low valuation and is expected to move with crude oil [12]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdowns in the far - month contracts, and the futures price rebounds [4]. - **Main Logic**: The market experiences a decline followed by a rebound. Supply recovery and weak demand lead to the initial decline, while far - month shutdown expectations drive the rebound. The downstream olefin fundamentals provide limited support [28]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market is currently weak but is expected to strengthen after the Indian tender is finalized [4]. - **Main Logic**: The market is waiting for the Indian tender. Once it is finalized, factors such as supply reduction, expected increase in autumn demand, and potential export opportunities are expected to drive the price up [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume in early September is low, and there is still room for a decline in port inventory [4]. - **Main Logic**: With less volume arriving at ports in early September, port inventory continues to decline. Cost support is weak, but low inventory provides some price support [20][21]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. Macroeconomic and cost factors are the main disturbances [4]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term due to plant restarts and new capacity. Downstream demand provides limited support [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The delayed restart of the plant and mediocre demand result in limited price drivers [4]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is weak, and the delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. The overall supply - demand pattern is okay, and the price is expected to follow cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the demand needs further verification [4]. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the movement of upstream costs. Supply remains high, and some plants are planning to restart. Downstream demand is average, and the sustainability of demand needs to be observed [22][23]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary [4]. - **Main Logic**: The cost is fluctuating, and the supply - side plant maintenance supports the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [23][26]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - **Main Logic**: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. Supply continues to increase, and although there is some improvement in demand, the overall outlook is still weak [32][33]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: Temporarily follows the movement of PP [4]. - **Main Logic**: External supply is restricted, and downstream demand is good. The price mainly follows PP in the short term, and the PP - PL processing fee is a key focus [33]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, and it trades sideways in the short term [4]. - **Main Logic**: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. The price is affected by oil price fluctuations, macro - sentiment, and supply - demand factors. It is necessary to monitor downstream demand [30][31]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will resume inventory accumulation, and the price trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the supply of naphtha is expected to tighten. However, the increase in pure benzene imports and weak downstream demand suggest a potential supply - surplus situation [16][19]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and the price continues to decline [4]. - **Main Logic**: The decline is due to the weakening of anti - over - competition sentiment and the poor fundamentals. High inventory levels and weak demand in the downstream market contribute to the price drop [19][20]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions suppress the price, and it trades weakly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Factors such as reduced production in September, weak demand, and potential anti - dumping measures affect the price [36]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for now [4]. - **Main Logic**: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, factors such as the expected increase in alumina production in the future and the current slowdown in the spot price rebound lead to a wait - and - see attitude [36][37]. 4. Product Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each product [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product show the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [39]. - **Inter - Product Spread**: The inter - product spread data reflect the relative price relationships between different products, which can be used for arbitrage analysis and market trend judgment [41]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread data for specific products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., which help in analyzing the price relationships and market trends of these products [42][55][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating Core Views - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with most varieties showing a bearish outlook both in the short and medium - term, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2] - The current market hype about "anti - involution" in the energy and chemical sector regarding "backward production capacity" and "orderly exit" should be treated calmly, as the impact on raw materials may not be positive [3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory and the US peak season, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply during the OPEC+ production increase cycle [4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507 [4] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production starts remain at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is neutral, and the fundamentals are weak, with an expected significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium - term [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 7340 [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's mixed rubber exports and China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expected increase in supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the semi - steel tire inventory has reached a record high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with a late - session rebound testing the 14100 resistance. Pay attention to the outcome of the resistance level in the short - term [11] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of capacity put into production for the raw material butadiene this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have reached record highs, and there is a cost - collapse logic in the future [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily at 11670 [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [13] PX - Logic: After profit recovery, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand side is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [15] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 6870 [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [15] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of polyester production cuts in July, but PTA production starts have declined due to tight PX inventory. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 4840 [17] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and PP production starts have declined. However, recently, the newly put - into - operation capacity has gradually increased, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The short - term resistance level is at 7140 [20] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the previously shut - down plants in Iran are expected to resume production quickly, and the import expectation is still strong. With high supply and weak demand during the off - season, the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, there is a rebound with reduced positions, but the volume is insufficient, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 2510 [22] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearishly viewed [23] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The resistance is temporarily at 4955 [23] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [23] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume production, and the polyester production starts on the demand side have declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The short - term resistance is at 4345 [27] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27] Plastic - Logic: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The resistance is temporarily at 7450 [30] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]