1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to repeated geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and EU sanctions targeting third - country ports, which bring uncertainties to the supply side [1]. - Fuel oil prices are likely to oscillate. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in March. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is strengthening. Both are affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil costs [3]. - Asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price follows the cost - side oil price but may be volatile after the US - Iran negotiation, so light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PX and PTA prices may follow the cost and weaken, while ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [3][5]. - Rubber prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals and a slight increase in port inventory [5]. - Methanol prices are likely to have a narrow - range fluctuation. The decrease in Iranian shipments in February will support the price, but the slow destocking speed at ports and the approaching Spring Festival will limit the price movement [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. With the end of downstream enterprise restocking and the approaching Spring Festival, the market trading activity will decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Although the supply is high and domestic demand is slowing, the export tax - refund policy before April 1 will provide short - term support [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI March contract closed at $64.36/barrel, up $0.81 or 1.27%; Brent April contract closed at $69.04/barrel, up $0.99 or 1.45%; SC2604 closed at 475.2 yuan/barrel, up 9.2 yuan or 1.97%. OPEC's January oil production decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 28.34 million barrels per day, with Nigeria having the largest decline. The EU plans to expand sanctions on Russia to ports in Georgia and Indonesia. The short - term oil price will oscillate due to geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.5% at 2,794 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 closed down 1.22% at 3,248 yuan/ton. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the expected increase in arbitrage cargoes from the Western market in February will put pressure on the Singapore low - sulfur market. However, the inflow of arbitrage cargoes in March is expected to decrease. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is strengthening [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.98% at 3,334 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt has increased. The demand has basically ended before the Spring Festival. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price follows the cost - side oil price [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,192 yuan/ton, up 0.5% on the previous day; EG2605 closed at 3,739 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The PX futures main contract 605 closed at 7,290 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The polyester load is weakening, and the near - term performance is under pressure, while the far - month is expected to be strong [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 165 yuan/ton to 16,245 yuan/ton, and the NR main contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 13,150 yuan/ton. The cost - side raw material prices are supported by stocking, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak with a slight increase in port inventory [5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the Taicang spot price was 2,205 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the Iranian supply is low. The load of the Ningbo Fude MTO device will gradually increase, and there is rigid demand support. The decrease in Iranian shipments in February will support the price, but the destocking speed at ports will be slow [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,530 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The upstream production is at a high level, and the downstream factories will gradually stop production. The downstream restocking is basically over, and the polyolefins will start to accumulate inventory, so there is pressure for the price to rise [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the price in the East China PVC market was stable, and the price in the South China market rose slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is slowing down before the Spring Festival, and the demand for pipes and profiles is decreasing. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the export policy will provide short - term support [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On February 9, the US issued a new guide for merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters and not to resist if boarded by the Iranian military [11]. - According to traders and shipping data, Russian oil tankers are increasingly listing Singapore as the official destination, but Singapore does not import Russian crude oil, and its offshore waters are often used for ship - to - ship transfers [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2022 to 2026 [13][15][17][19][21][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31][36][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, BU/SC ratio, etc. [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts for LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash - flow chart for ethylene - based ethylene glycol [64][66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and provides risk management and investment strategies for many enterprises [70]. - **Du Bingqin**: Energy and Chemical Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards and is often interviewed by the media [71]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and Polyester Analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the research of rubber and polyester - related futures varieties, has won several awards and published views in many media [72]. - **Peng Haibo**: Methanol, Propylene, Pure Benzene, Polyolefin, and PVC Analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and CFA Level 3 certification [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the studied energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillation" [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of oil prices is oscillating and rebounding, but the rhythm is still changeable. Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October. Russia's offline refining capacity reached a record high in August, and it extended the ban on refined oil exports [1]. - The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as sanctions, inventory changes, and supply and demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will continue, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened. The FU sentiment is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by factors such as rainfall, capital, and project construction. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of demand [2][3]. - The polyester market has improved demand expectations, but the cost - end crude oil price has declined. The PX and TA have large - scale accidental maintenance, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - The rubber market is supported by tire exports, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber follows the cost fluctuations [3][4]. - The methanol market has a short - term increase in port inventory, and the domestic supply will gradually recover. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The polyolefin market is gradually moving towards a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern [5]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has a stable increase in domestic demand, but the export will weaken. The production profit will be gradually compressed, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price center moved up. WTI October contract closed up $0.45 to $64.60 per barrel, a 0.7% increase. Brent October contract closed up $0.57 to $68.62 per barrel, an 0.84% increase. SC2510 closed at 486.6 yuan per barrel, up 5.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.14% increase. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.21%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2511 closed up 0.14%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.57%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.66%, EG2601 closed down 0.36%, and PX futures main contract closed down 0.78%. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 rose 185 yuan per ton, NR main contract rose 165 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 270 yuan per ton. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The polyvinyl chloride market is expected to oscillate [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in the past month [7]. 3.3 Market News - From August 22 - 28, the gasoline inventory in the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp (ARA) center decreased from 104.5 tons to 99.1 tons, the fuel oil inventory increased from 104.6 tons to 104.9 tons, the diesel inventory increased from 203.2 tons to 208.5 tons, the aviation fuel inventory decreased from 94.6 tons to 91.9 tons, and the naphtha inventory increased from 55.2 tons to 58.4 tons [9]. - Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil's official selling price possibly being lowered by 40 - 70 cents per barrel [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21][22] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27][31][33][35][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [38][39][41][44][47][49][52][55] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [56][57][60][61][62] - **Production Profit**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some energy and chemical products [63][65][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related analysts Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]