摘要今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，伦敦金现货最新报价为4504.24美元/盎司，较前一交易日下跌28.25 美元/盎司，跌幅达0.62%，伦敦金日内价格最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低下探至4471.99美元/盎司， 昨日收盘价为4532.29美元/盎司，今日开盘价为4539.45美元/盎司。 分析师强调两大趋势：宏观上商品处大国争夺地缘与技术主导权中心；微观上2025年起能源供应浪潮驱 动能源判断。黄金最受看涨，央行需求是关键——2026年月均购金70吨(近12个月均值66吨，为2022年 前4倍)，贡献金价涨幅约14个百分点，因2022年俄储备冻结改新兴市场监管视角、新兴央行黄金占比仍 低(尤其中国推人民币国际化)、购金意愿历史高位。 私人投资者跟进或推高金价：美黄金ETF仅占私投组合0.17%(较2012峰值低6基点)，份额每增1基点(增 量购买驱动)金价涨1.4%。地缘加剧下商品具保险价值：供应集中+地缘/贸易/AI竞争推高中断风险，短 缺伴增长慢、通胀高、商品强回报，削弱股债分散效果。 价格预测：2026年Q1回调至4200美元，Q2回升超4400美元，Q3创4630美元新高，Q4末达49 ...

高盛大宗商品策略师认为，黄金是明年整个大宗商品领域中最佳的投资选择，如果私人投资者效仿央行进行资产多元化配置，金价很可能超过每盎司4900美 元的基准预测。 "一些国家在人工智能和地缘政治实力上的竞争，以及全球能源供应浪潮，构成了我们核心判断的基础，"他们在《2026年大宗商品展望》报告中写道。"大 宗商品指数在2025年实现了强劲的总回报（例如彭博商品指数回报率为15%），这是因为工业、特别是贵金属领域的强劲回报——这两者都倾向于受益于美 联储降息——超过了能源领域相对温和的负回报。" 展望未来，高盛表示他们的宏观基准预测包括"稳固的全球GDP增长以及2026年美联储降息50个基点"，这应会再次支持大宗商品的强劲回报。 分析师们重点强调了两大结构性趋势，他们认为这将驱动来年大宗商品的前景。 "首先，在宏观层面，大宗商品很可能仍将处于大国争夺地缘政治实力以及技术和人工智能主导地位的中心，"他们写道。"其次，在微观层面，2025年开始 的两大能源供应浪潮驱动了我们对能源的判断。" 在所有研究的大宗商品中，高盛对黄金最为看涨——而央行的需求是重要原因。 "我们预计央行购金需求在2026年将保持强劲，每月平均购买7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in 2025 will experience a tug-of-war between the strong performance of precious metals and the lackluster performance of the energy market, creating significant structural opportunities for investors. This divergence will become more pronounced in 2026, driven by two major global structural changes: the US-China power competition over technological dominance and geopolitical influence, and contrasting supply waves in the energy market, particularly the short-lived oil supply surge and the long-lasting liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Macro and Micro Trends - The overall commodity market performed strongly in 2025, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) returning 15%, largely due to the excellent performance of industrial metals, especially precious metals, which benefited from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][3]. - The macro analysis framework identifies US-China geopolitical competition and AI rivalry as core pillars influencing the commodity market, while the micro analysis highlights two energy supply waves starting in 2025, with oil supply peaking in 2026 and LNG supply expanding significantly [3][4]. Group 2: Gold Demand and Price Projections - Central bank gold purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in 2026, averaging around 70 tons per month, which is over four times the long-term average of 17 tons before 2022. This demand is projected to support gold prices, potentially increasing them by approximately 14% by December 2026 [8][9]. - The model for "sticky belief buyers" (central banks and ETFs) indicates that their demand for gold is less volatile compared to opportunistic buyers, which could further stabilize gold prices [7][8]. Group 3: Copper and Industrial Metals Outlook - Despite recent price increases, copper is still viewed as a favored industrial metal due to its critical role in electrification, which drives nearly half of its demand. The forecast for copper prices in 2026 is an average of $11,400 per ton, with expectations of price stabilization and potential declines in the latter half of the year [27][29]. - The supply of copper is expected to face unique constraints, while strong demand from strategic sectors like AI and defense will provide a bottom support for prices [27][29]. Group 4: Energy Market Dynamics - The oil market is anticipated to experience a supply surplus in 2026, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices projected to average $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively. This surplus is attributed to a significant supply wave leading to an excess of 2 million barrels per day [40][43]. - In contrast, the LNG market is expected to see a rapid increase in supply, with global LNG exports projected to grow by over 50% from 2024 to 2030, driven by investments made during the previous energy crisis [49][50]. Group 5: Long-term Price Predictions - The forecast for gold prices suggests an increase to $4,900 by December 2026, while oil prices are expected to recover gradually by 2028, reaching around $80 per barrel as the market adjusts to long-term demand and supply dynamics [57][47]. - The divergence in performance among different commodities is expected to create significant relative value opportunities, with precious metals likely outperforming other sectors [56].