发电业务方面，受新能源快速发展影响，火电等发电设备利用率遭挤压。上半年国内火电设备平均利用 小时1968小时，同比减少130小时，其中煤电平均利用小时为2056小时，同比减少了147小时。电价方 面，随着新能源上网电价市场化，电力市场竞争加剧。以中国神华为例，公司上半年燃煤发电售电价同 比下滑5.2%至380元/兆瓦时，其中广西、广东地区售电价下滑明显，分别为377元（-17.9%）和348元 （-11.9%）。 受上述情况影响，中国神华上半年发电量同比下降7.4%至987.8亿千瓦时，总售电量同比下降7.3%至 929.1亿千瓦时；公司平均售电价格为386元/兆瓦时，同比下滑4.2%，由此导致公司上半年发电分部营 业利润额同比下降2.8%至50.87亿元。 为减轻煤炭市场对公司业务影响，公司的铁路、港口分部正加大非煤业务经营。上半年，中国神华铁路 分部完成金属矿石、化工品等非煤货物约1310万吨，同比增长7.4%；港口分部完成油品、矿石等非煤 货物运量720万吨，同比增长5.9%。受业务优化以及经营成本下滑影响，这两大业务分部分别实现经营 利润70.36亿元、13.29亿元，同比增长1.6%、9.7%。 关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of the US energy market have changed synchronously recently. Crude oil inventories have declined, ending three consecutive weeks of growth, while refinery processing volumes have continued to decline, and crude oil production and rig counts have steadily decreased, indicating weakening expansion momentum on the supply side. The refined oil market is differentiated, with gasoline demand seasonally falling and inventories rising, suggesting the end of the summer consumption peak, while distillate and diesel inventories, though increasing, remain at historically low levels, and the structurally tight pattern remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Inventory and Supply - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.86 million barrels to about 422 million barrels in the week ending July 11, the largest decline in nearly a month and the first drop in three weeks, exceeding market expectations and showing a divergence in market expectations [2]. - Cushing's crude oil inventory in Oklahoma slightly increased but remained at the lowest seasonal level since 2014, indicating a tight spot supply [2]. - Crude oil production fell to 13.375 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week, and the number of oil well rigs has continued to decline for 11 consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since September 2021, suggesting further limitations on future crude oil production expansion [2]. 3.2 Refinery Processing - Refinery crude oil processing volumes have declined for the second consecutive week, falling below 17 million barrels per day, the lowest level since spring and lower than the seasonal level of the same period last year. Except for the East Coast, processing volumes in all PADD regions have decreased [3]. - Some refineries in certain regions have been affected by unexpected factors, which may further reduce processing volumes. For example, at least one major refinery on the Gulf Coast has cut operations due to crude oil quality issues, and refineries in the East Coast, Texas, and the Rocky Mountains are at risk of processing volumes falling below 17 million barrels per day due to power outages [3]. 3.3 Refined Oil Market - In the gasoline market, inventories rose to the highest level since April this week, increasing by 3.4 million barrels and approaching the four - year seasonal high. Demand fell below 9 million barrels per day for the first time since early June, and gasoline futures fell by about 1.5% on the day. Regionally, West Coast gasoline inventories rose to the highest level since early August, and East Coast inventories reached the highest level since early March [4]. - In the distillate and diesel markets, inventories increased by 4.17 million barrels in the week ending July 11, the third - largest increase on record in 2025, but still remained at a very low historical level. Demand was at the high end of the five - year seasonal range, and the increase in inventories was mainly due to a surge in imports and a decline in exports. Diesel inventories rose for the first time in four weeks to about 107 million barrels but remained at the lowest seasonal level since 1996 [4][5]. 3.4 Crude Oil Exports US crude oil exports are expected to continue to rise, exceeding 3 million barrels per day, but are not expected to exceed 3.5 million barrels per day. After the restart of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day crude oil unit at BP's Rotterdam refinery, exports may continue to increase [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in Russian coal exports, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% in Q1 2025, and notes that the proportion of loss-making coal companies in the Kuzbass region has risen to 57% [2][3]. - Global energy prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil prices at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% from the previous week, and coal prices at European ARA ports dropping to $92.3 per ton, a decrease of 7.6% [1][3]. - The report emphasizes potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, particularly those involved in share buybacks, which are seen as a positive signal for the industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Russian coal exports via sea decreased by 2.9% in Q1 2025, with exports to China down by 21.5%, accounting for 30% of total sea exports [5][6]. - The Kuzbass region's coal mining output fell to 51 million tons in Q1 2025, a 3.6% decline year-on-year [5][6]. - The report predicts that the total losses in the Russian coal industry could exceed $3.1 billion in 2025, doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks for investment include: - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A at 2.31 [6]. - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A at 2.95 [6]. - Other notable mentions include Huaiyin Mining, Jinneng Holding, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3][6]. Price Trends - Coal prices have shown a consistent decline, with Newcastle coal at $93.8 per ton, down 1.4% from the previous week, and South African Richards Bay coal at $88.1 per ton, down 0.9% [1][3][6].