证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 17 年 月 日 ➢ 南苏门答腊是印度尼西亚主要煤炭生产省份之一，2024 年生产 煤炭 1.135 亿吨，占该国煤炭总产量的 13.6%。该省开采的大部 分煤炭通过火车运输，其余则通过公路和河运驳船运输。 投资建议： 重 点推 荐 煤炭 央 企 中煤 能 源 （ H+A ） 、 中国 神 华 （H+A）；建议关注困境反转的中国秦发；"绩优则股优"，绩优的 陕西煤业、电投能源、淮北矿业、新集能源；弹性的兖矿能源、晋控 煤业、昊华能源、平煤股份，未来存在增量的华阳股份、甘肃能化。 此外，前期完成控股股东变更，目前正在办理资产置换的安源煤业亦 值得重点关注。 风险提示：国内产量释放超预期，下游需求不及预期，原煤进口超预 期。 增持（维持） 行业走势 作者 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 煤炭开采 沪深300 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 刘力钰 煤炭开采 印尼主产省公路禁止 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 03 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2024 年全球新建煤矿产能降至十年低点至 1.05 亿吨 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原油期货 结算价为 69.67 美元/桶，较上周上涨 1.23 美元/桶（+1.80%）；WTI 原油期货结 算价为 67.33 美元/桶，较上周上涨 2.17 美元/桶（+3.33%）。天然气价格方面， 东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.79 美元/百万英热，较上周上涨 0.037 美元/百万英 热（+0.31%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 33.775 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.375 欧元/兆瓦时（+4.24%）；美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.095 美元/百万英热，较 上周下降-0.015 美元/百万英热（-0.48%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭 （6000K）到岸价 108.5 美元/吨，较上周上涨 15.75 美元/吨（+16.98%）；纽卡 斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 117.25 美元/吨，较上周上涨 1.75 美元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in coal prices due to the high costs of overseas coal mines, which may lead to reduced imports and a subsequent increase in domestic coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The European coal market is experiencing a price decline, with ARA port coal prices at $103.4 per ton, down $3.7 per ton (-3.4%) from the previous week. Newcastle port coal prices are at $106.5 per ton, down $0.1 per ton (-0.1%) [1][3]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on natural gas prices, which have led to a simultaneous increase in coal and natural gas prices in Europe by 7-9% [6][3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, which is expected to reverse its current difficulties. Other recommended companies include Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well [3][7].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that oil and gas prices may rise following the U.S. attack on Iran, although the bank's base forecast depends on whether there will be significant disruptions in supply in the region [1] - Analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicate that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by half within a month and maintains a 10% reduction over the next 11 months, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel [1] - If Iranian supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent oil prices could peak at $90 [1] Group 2 - The global oil market is assessing potential price movements as the Middle East crisis escalates, with current crude futures near $79 per barrel [1] - Following the U.S. attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Asian trading saw a significant price increase, although Brent crude later retraced some gains as the market refocused on the fact that actual oil transport remains unaffected [1] - Analysts note that major stakeholders, including the U.S. and China, have strong economic incentives to prevent large-scale disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 3 - The natural gas market is also viewed as risky, with analysts suggesting that European benchmark futures (TTF) could rise to €74 per megawatt hour (approximately $25 per million British thermal units), a level that previously suppressed demand during the 2022 European energy crisis [1] - In the event of a large-scale and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices could potentially rise to €100 per megawatt hour [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3] - The report highlights that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, emphasizing that performance-driven stocks will outperform [3][7] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In May 2025, India's coal imports rebounded, primarily supported by coking coal imports, with total imports reaching 25.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% and a month-on-month increase of 15.28%, marking the highest level since July 2022 [6][2] - The report notes that the coking coal market remains relatively stable, particularly for high-quality hard coking coal, due to tightening supply from Australia [6] - The performance of the electricity, steel, and cement sectors shows significant divergence, with electricity generation from coal declining by 9.5% year-on-year, while crude steel production increased by 9.5% due to infrastructure development [6] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) - Buy - Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7] Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, Newcastle coal prices (6000K) are at $218.90 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $91.35 per ton, up by $0.10 per ton [35] - The report indicates that coal prices in Europe ARA ports remain stable at $89.00 per ton, with no change from the previous week [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [3][38]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices continue to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.19% as of June 13, reaching 4406.00 CNY/ton. In contrast, US and Canadian natural gas futures prices have also decreased, while UK prices have increased by 5.50% [1][2][7]. - China's natural gas production in May fell by 2.99% month-on-month, totaling 613,420 tons. Meanwhile, US and European natural gas inventories have risen, with US inventories increasing by 9.73% and European inventories by 22.55% [1][15][18]. - European natural gas imports in May decreased by 2.20% month-on-month but increased by 8.66% year-on-year. Notably, imports from Russia rose month-on-month but fell significantly by 50.65% year-on-year [2][24][28]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased by 145.00 CNY/ton, a drop of 3.19% month-on-month and 0.50% year-on-year. The US NYMEX natural gas futures price fell by 0.44% month-on-month but increased by 23.67% year-on-year [7][10]. - Canadian natural gas futures prices saw a significant decline of 33.56% month-on-month, while UK prices increased by 5.50% [10][11]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in May was 613,420 tons, down 2.99% from the previous month. The apparent consumption of natural gas in April decreased by 0.86% month-on-month but increased by 2.26% year-on-year [15][16]. Inventory - As of June 13, US LNG/LPG inventories rose to 169,056 thousand barrels, marking a 9.73% increase month-on-month. European natural gas inventories also increased by 22.55% month-on-month, totaling 601.10 billion kWh [18][22]. Imports and Exports - In May, Europe’s total natural gas imports decreased by 2.20% month-on-month to 172,918.64 million cubic meters, while imports from Russia increased by 10.11% month-on-month but decreased by 50.65% year-on-year [24][27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may adjust its monetary policy if the impact of energy price fluctuations persists and continues to transmit through the economy [1] Group 1 - The ECB is closely monitoring the effects of energy price volatility on the economy [1] - There is a potential for changes in monetary policy in response to sustained energy price impacts [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for coal mining companies [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence [3]. - In May 2025, India's coal-fired power generation decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 113.3 billion kWh, marking the largest year-on-year decline since June 2020 [2]. - The report emphasizes that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to increased probabilities of both passive and active production cuts [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of June 6, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: European ARA port coal price at $89/ton (down 2.2%), Newcastle port coal price at $218.9/ton (unchanged), and IPE South Africa Richards Bay coal futures at $91/ton (up 1.2%) [1][32]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Energy (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinko Coal Industry (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal Energy (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [6]. Electricity Demand - In May 2025, India's total electricity generation decreased by 5.3% year-on-year to 160.4 billion kWh, with peak demand down 8% to 231,000 MW, primarily due to mild weather conditions [5].