Oil fell 2.5% on Tuesday morning following reports that Ukraine has mostly agreed to a peace deal with the U.S. European Gas Prices Chill at Lowest Levels Since May 2024 - European gas prices have fallen below the €30 per MWh threshold (the equivalent of $11 per MMbtu) as the triple whammy of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, warmer weather and ample supply lowered the TTF benchmark to its lowest since May 2024. - Following a brief cold spell that brought this winter season’s first snow, temperatures across ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.53 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.63% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, down 49.03% year-on-year - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 6.78 billion yuan, a decline of 25.81% year-on-year, with net profit at 159 million yuan, down 71.01% year-on-year - The decline in performance is attributed to falling coal prices and increased water and soil conservation fees, alongside pressure on natural gas prices and a decrease in long-term contract gas sales - The approval and progress of the Marang coal mine project are expected to support future production growth, while the Zaisang oil and gas project is set to become a significant growth point after coal and natural gas [2][5][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 22.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.63% year-on-year - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.01 billion yuan, down 49.03% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.78 billion yuan, a decline of 25.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, down 71.01% year-on-year [2][5] Market Conditions - The domestic coal market saw a rebound in prices in Q3 2025, with the average price for 5000 kcal coal at 599.48 yuan/ton, up 6.77% quarter-on-quarter but down 20.32% year-on-year - The average price for 5500 kcal coal was 673.68 yuan/ton, up 5.16% quarter-on-quarter but down 20.95% year-on-year - Despite a 75.97% year-on-year increase in coal sales volume in the first half of 2025, Q3 saw a decline in both production and sales volume due to previous low prices [11] Future Growth Prospects - The Marang coal mine has received necessary approvals and is progressing well, which is expected to enhance production capacity - The Zaisang oil and gas project is advancing, with geological research and drilling activities ongoing, positioning it as a future growth driver [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key coal companies such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, and recommends attention to China Qinfa for potential turnaround opportunities [2][5]. Core Insights - The Indian government has adjusted the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on coal and related products from 5% to 18%, while removing a compensation cess of 400 INR per ton. This tax reform is expected to enhance tax transparency and management efficiency, potentially reducing the generation cost for Indian power companies by 0.12 INR per kWh [2]. - The report highlights a marginal adjustment in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $108.25 per ton, down by $3.25 per ton (-2.91%) compared to the previous week [1][29]. - The report indicates a slight increase in natural gas prices, with the Northeast Asia LNG spot price at $11.292 per million British thermal units, up by $0.146 (+1.31%) [1][16]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a decrease in coal prices across various markets, with European ARA coal at $95.75 per ton (-0.52%), and IPE South African Richards Bay coal at $87.3 per ton (-2.20%) [1][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal companies with strong performance metrics, recommending companies like Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Huainan Mining for their robust earnings [2][5]. Energy Prices - Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.5 per barrel, down by $2.62 (-3.85%), while WTI crude oil futures were at $61.87 per barrel, down by $2.14 (-3.34%) [1][12]. - The report also highlights the marginal increase in natural gas prices, with the Dutch TTF gas futures at €32.412 per megawatt hour, up by €0.853 (+2.70%) [1][16]. Power Demand - There is a noted marginal increase in coal power demand, indicating a potential recovery in the coal electricity sector [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [3] Core Viewpoints - The ban on coal truck transportation on public roads in South Sumatra, Indonesia, starting January 2026, is expected to lead to a reduction of 10 million tons in annual coal production capacity [2] - South Sumatra is a major coal-producing province in Indonesia, contributing 13.6% of the country's total coal output in 2024 [2] - The report recommends focusing on key coal companies such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, while also suggesting attention to companies like Qinfa and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [2] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The ban on coal truck transportation in South Sumatra may impact annual coal production by 10 million tons [2] - The coal prices at various ports are as follows: Newcastle port coal (6000K) at $112.1/ton, IPE South Africa Richards Bay coal at $90.15/ton, and Europe ARA port coal at $108.5/ton [2][32] Price Trends - Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.85/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.11%) from the previous week [1] - WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.8/barrel, down $1.08 (-1.69%) from the previous week [1] - Northeast Asia LNG spot price is $10.858/million BTU, down $0.537 (-4.71%) from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (Buy), China Shenhua (Buy), and Qinfa (Buy) [5] - Other notable companies include Shaanxi Coal, Datong Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, which are expected to perform well [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - Global new coal mining capacity is expected to drop to a ten-year low of 105 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 46% compared to 2023, representing the smallest increase in a decade [2] - The slowdown in new capacity may reflect delays in expansion approvals, the inherent long-term nature of coal mine development, and a potential easing of supply-demand pressures after a surge in capacity in the previous two years due to special events [2] Summary by Sections Coal Mining Capacity - In 2024, global new coal mining capacity is projected at approximately 105 million tons, accounting for only 1% of the total global coal production capacity of 8.9 billion tons [2] Price Trends - As of August 1, 2025, coal prices at various ports have shown significant fluctuations, with European ARA port coal prices at $108.5 per ton (up 16.98% week-on-week), Newcastle port coal at $117.25 per ton (up 1.52%), and IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures at $93.6 per ton (down 1.04%) [1][39] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy (H+A) and China Shenhua (H+A), as well as turnaround opportunities like China Qinfa [3] - Other recommended stocks include high-performing companies such as Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, China Power Investment, Huai Bei Mining, and New Energy [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that many countries are still planning to build new coal mines, with a total capacity of 2.27 billion tons, where new thermal coal capacity dominates, accounting for 75% of the proposed projects [11] - China, India, Australia, and Russia account for nearly 90% of the planned development projects, with China alone accounting for 1.35 billion tons of the proposed capacity [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in coal prices due to the high costs of overseas coal mines, which may lead to reduced imports and a subsequent increase in domestic coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The European coal market is experiencing a price decline, with ARA port coal prices at $103.4 per ton, down $3.7 per ton (-3.4%) from the previous week. Newcastle port coal prices are at $106.5 per ton, down $0.1 per ton (-0.1%) [1][3]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on natural gas prices, which have led to a simultaneous increase in coal and natural gas prices in Europe by 7-9% [6][3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, which is expected to reverse its current difficulties. Other recommended companies include Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well [3][7].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that oil and gas prices may rise following the U.S. attack on Iran, although the bank's base forecast depends on whether there will be significant disruptions in supply in the region [1] - Analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicate that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by half within a month and maintains a 10% reduction over the next 11 months, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel [1] - If Iranian supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent oil prices could peak at $90 [1] Group 2 - The global oil market is assessing potential price movements as the Middle East crisis escalates, with current crude futures near $79 per barrel [1] - Following the U.S. attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Asian trading saw a significant price increase, although Brent crude later retraced some gains as the market refocused on the fact that actual oil transport remains unaffected [1] - Analysts note that major stakeholders, including the U.S. and China, have strong economic incentives to prevent large-scale disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 3 - The natural gas market is also viewed as risky, with analysts suggesting that European benchmark futures (TTF) could rise to €74 per megawatt hour (approximately $25 per million British thermal units), a level that previously suppressed demand during the 2022 European energy crisis [1] - In the event of a large-scale and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices could potentially rise to €100 per megawatt hour [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3] - The report highlights that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, emphasizing that performance-driven stocks will outperform [3][7] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In May 2025, India's coal imports rebounded, primarily supported by coking coal imports, with total imports reaching 25.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% and a month-on-month increase of 15.28%, marking the highest level since July 2022 [6][2] - The report notes that the coking coal market remains relatively stable, particularly for high-quality hard coking coal, due to tightening supply from Australia [6] - The performance of the electricity, steel, and cement sectors shows significant divergence, with electricity generation from coal declining by 9.5% year-on-year, while crude steel production increased by 9.5% due to infrastructure development [6] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) - Buy - Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7] Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, Newcastle coal prices (6000K) are at $218.90 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $91.35 per ton, up by $0.10 per ton [35] - The report indicates that coal prices in Europe ARA ports remain stable at $89.00 per ton, with no change from the previous week [35]