2026年1月9日凌晨，一枚据称"无法拦截"的高超音速导弹撕裂乌克兰西部夜空，精准命中利沃夫战略 储气库。这里储存着乌克兰一半以上的天然气，距离北约边境仅60公里。 俄罗斯说这是报复，乌克兰说这是恐怖袭击。而十天前发生的那件事，才是这场大戏的真正导火索—— 91架无人机，直扑普京官邸。 "榛树"导弹的致命一击 2026年1月9日凌晨，乌克兰西部城市利沃夫的居民还在睡梦中，突然被一声巨响惊醒。紧接着，火光冲 天，浓烟滚滚。. 等天亮后人们才知道，被炸的是利沃夫地下战略储气库——这可不是普通的设施，它的储气量占乌克兰 全国储气库总量的一半以上，说它是乌克兰的"能源心脏"一点都不夸张。 更让人心惊的是，这次俄军动用的武器不是普通导弹，而是"榛树"高超音速中程弹道导弹。这玩意儿 有多厉害？飞行速度10马赫，也就是音速的十倍，从发射到命中，留给防空系统的反应时间几乎为零。 据说目前世界上还没有能拦截它的防空系统，这话可不是吹的，因为之前在实战中已经验证过多次了。 同一天，俄军还发动了大规模空袭，总共发射了36枚各型导弹和242架无人机，打击目标遍布乌克兰多 个关键基础设施。 基辅当天的情况尤其惨烈，4人死亡，25人受伤 ...

很多人认为，中美博弈的主要战场是芯片、科技和制造业。这个观点并没有错，但并不完整。如果从美国的角度出发，考虑如何长期削弱世界第二大经济 体，中国的关键点并不在某一项高科技领域，而是能源。真正能够制约中国的，不是短期内切断油气供应，或者封锁港口，而是通过一种慢刀策略，长期让 中国的工业体系处于高成本、高风险和高不确定性的状态。这才是美中之间真正的能源战争。 为什么美国一直盯着委内瑞拉和伊朗？许多人看不懂，美国为何总是对这两个国家下手。如果你以为这是出于意识形态的斗争，那就错了。实际上，这两个 国家对于中国未来的能源安全至关重要，充当了重要的缓冲区。委内瑞拉有什么？并不是民主制度，而是全球最大规模的石油储备。伊朗同样拥有丰富的能 源资源。美国对这两个国家的策略，从来不是完全摧毁，而是分三步进行：首先，制造政治不稳定，导致石油产能无法正常释放；其次，让这些国家长期处 于低效和制裁状态；最后，使市场中始终存在潜在的供应，但随时都可能因政治风险而突然涨价。油价一旦上涨，受伤最严重的不是美国，而是能源进口 国。这种做法是一种典型的金融化能源战争方式。 许多人会问，既然美国这么害怕中国，为什么不直接与中国正面冲突？答案很简 ...

特朗普近期的行动，虽然表面上看似没有针对中国，实际上却处处与中国相关。从美国与欧盟联合在国 际海运上打击俄罗斯的幽灵船队，到美国航母编队封锁委内瑞拉附近海域，驱赶满载油轮。这些行动看 似与中国无关，但实际上却直接威胁到了中国的能源生命线。在特朗普看来，几乎没有什么方式能真正 击垮中国，因为中国作为世界制造业大国，几乎所有东西都能自给自足，然而，中国强大的工业能力却 面临着能源的短缺问题。 通过投资和持股的方式，彻底控制委内瑞拉的石油资源。对于中国来说，委内瑞拉是一个重要的能源合 作伙伴。2025年6月，委内瑞拉约有84.4万桶/日的石油出口，其中90%通过直接或间接方式运往中国。 到2025年10月，委内瑞拉的石油出口量一度突破每日100万桶，创下自2020年以来的新高，这一增长也 得益于中国市场的支持。 中国能源进口的数量一直保持在较高水平。显然，如果中美关系破裂，那么在美国军事基地的压制下， 中国将很难从中东国家进口原油。此时，中国将不得不依赖委内瑞拉和俄罗斯等国的能源供应，而一旦 切断中俄和中委之间的海运枢纽，中国将面临能源短缺的困境，这对于中国的制造业将是致命打击。那 么，美国是如何切断这些能源供应的 ...

Core Insights - The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has evolved into a new phase where energy infrastructure has become a primary target, indicating a shift from traditional warfare to strategic energy warfare [1][8] - Ukraine's recent sanctions on over 700 oil tankers linked to Russia highlight the importance of disrupting Russia's oil supply, which generates significant revenue for its military operations [1][5] Group 1: Energy Infrastructure Attacks - Ukraine's strike on the Slavyansk oil refinery, which has an annual processing capacity of 3 million tons, directly supports Russian military operations by supplying fuel [3] - The destruction of oil facilities has led to a 15% reduction in Russia's processing capacity, forcing the military to source fuel from the civilian market, thereby increasing domestic oil prices [3][8] - Russia has retaliated with extensive airstrikes on Ukrainian power facilities, aiming to disrupt the electricity supply necessary for Ukraine's military production [3][6] Group 2: Shadow Fleet and Sanctions - A "shadow fleet" of over 1,400 oil tankers has emerged to circumvent Western sanctions, transporting approximately 2 million barrels of oil daily and generating around $150 million in revenue for Russia [5] - The 700 tankers sanctioned by Ukraine are integral to this network, often using complex ownership structures to evade detection and sanctions [5][6] - Recent EU sanctions aim to cut off insurance and port services for these tankers, attempting to disrupt the logistics of oil transport [5] Group 3: Economic Implications - The ongoing energy conflict has resulted in a 40% loss of Ukraine's power generation capacity, with extensive repairs needed after large-scale attacks [8] - Fluctuations in international oil prices due to shipping risks and Russian production issues have led to increased costs in the global energy insurance market [8] - Both sides are engaged in a high-stakes gamble, with Ukraine relying on Western support for energy needs and Russia maintaining oil exports through the shadow fleet [8]

季姆留克港着火了，这不是烟花表演，这是打断俄罗斯钱袋子的那一把火。 有人说战争是兵戎相见，其实更像会计账本的斗争，你掐他收入，他就掐不着你的子弹，这话没毛病， 而这次，乌克兰掐到了位——季姆留克，亚速海边一座不会冬封的港口，成了目标。 冬天不冻，这话很要命，因为俄罗斯其他港口一到12月就关门，季姆留克就像张不眠的银行卡，全年进 账，运LNG，换外汇，换弹药，它是财政体温表上的一根探针。 这不是孤立事件，而是接着来的一串动作，12月5日当天，顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、克里米亚都遭遇打 击，炼油厂、燃料库、无人机库同时被点名，乌克兰这次的节奏不是打单点，而是全链条——从生产到 储存到运输，一环断一环，俄罗斯的补给线被掐在多处。 我们别忘了背景，IEA报告显示2025年前三季度俄罗斯对欧LNG出口已下滑10%，管道气更掉了45%， 在这种下行曲线里，再来个季姆留克的大火，效果不是叠加，是加速下坠。 2025年前十一个月，俄罗斯LNG出口稳得像只老牛，2840万吨不是小数目，欧盟嘴上说制裁，腿脚却 没停过，买得更多，半年给俄罗斯送了45亿欧元，这事儿耐人寻味——你嘴硬，钱包软，你说这是政治 还是经济的双面舞？ 于是乌克兰决 ...

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a significant attack by Russian drones on a 330 kV substation near Kremenchuk, resulting in the destruction of the control room and severe damage to critical equipment [1] - The loss of a gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) system, of which only four exist in Ukraine, represents a catastrophic blow to the country's energy infrastructure, making immediate repairs impossible [1] - The attack has severed the connection between much of Ukraine's left bank and the national energy system, plunging the country into darkness [1] Summary by Sections Attack Details - Russian forces targeted a key substation, leading to the complete destruction of the control room and associated buildings [1] - The GIS system, crucial for energy distribution, was entirely damaged, with no immediate repair options available [1] Impact on Energy Infrastructure - The attack has disrupted the energy supply to a large portion of Ukraine, creating a critical situation for energy engineers [1] - Concerns are rising that the remaining three GIS systems could also be targeted in future attacks, indicating a strategic approach by Russian forces [1][2] Strategic Implications - Ukrainian experts had previously speculated that nuclear power plants might be targeted, but the current strategy focuses on incapacitating substations to achieve widespread power outages [2] - This tactic of "power outage" has proven to be an effective method for Russian forces, complicating Ukraine's defensive measures [2]

Group 1 - The attack on the Voronezh power plant has disrupted the city's power and heating systems, highlighting the brutal nature of the ongoing energy war between Russia and Ukraine [1][3] - In the past 48 hours, both sides have engaged in unprecedented attacks on energy facilities, with Russia using hypersonic missiles and drones to target Ukrainian military and energy infrastructure [1][3] - Ukraine's counterattacks have also been significant, with strikes on Belgorod leading to power outages for 20,000 residents, indicating a tit-for-tat energy warfare strategy [3][5] Group 2 - The destruction of energy facilities has transformed them into military targets, as evidenced by Russia's strategy to cripple Ukraine's power supply, which has resulted in widespread blackouts [3][5] - The harsh winter conditions exacerbate the situation, with many families facing freezing temperatures and lack of basic amenities, illustrating the dire humanitarian impact of the conflict [5][6] - Ukraine has developed a resilient power system through distributed generation, which has become crucial for maintaining energy independence amid ongoing attacks [6][7] Group 3 - The Kremlin's approach to the conflict has shifted towards using civilian infrastructure as military targets, raising ethical concerns about the nature of warfare [3][6] - The ongoing conflict has led to a growing awareness among the Russian populace about the consequences of the war, as they experience the impacts of military actions on their own territory [6][7] - The situation reflects a broader historical context, drawing parallels to past appeasement policies and emphasizing the need for a strong response to aggression [6][7]

Core Points - The article discusses a recent large-scale missile attack by Russia on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, which has led to widespread power outages and significant damage across multiple cities [1][3][14] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for more advanced air defense systems and sanctions against Russia, highlighting the urgency of the situation as the attacks aim to cripple Ukraine's energy supply during the winter [3][10][15] Group 1: Attack Details - The missile strikes occurred in the early hours, causing immediate power outages and significant disruptions in cities like Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa [1][3] - The attacks were characterized as a systematic effort to incapacitate Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with a focus on power plants and substations [5][9][14] - The Ukrainian energy company DTEK reported severe damage to energy facilities, indicating that restoration efforts would take considerable time [3][10] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The attacks are seen as part of a broader strategy by Russia to undermine Ukraine's energy capabilities, especially as winter approaches, which could lead to increased civilian hardship and potential unrest [9][12][14] - The conflict has evolved into an energy war, where both sides are targeting each other's energy resources to gain a strategic advantage [13][14] - The situation has created a pressing need for Ukraine to secure more military support from Western allies to counteract the ongoing attacks and restore its energy infrastructure [10][15]

Group 1: Energy Crisis and Military Impact - The ongoing energy crisis in Ukraine is a result of Russia's targeted missile strikes on energy infrastructure, leading to nationwide emergency power outages and affecting over 10 million people [1][2] - Ukraine's electricity coverage has dropped by 53% compared to pre-war levels, reverting to a state reminiscent of the 1980s [3] - The military production in Ukraine has been severely impacted, with a 40% decrease in monthly artillery shell production due to power restrictions on military enterprises [7][9] Group 2: Strategic Implications of Resource Control - Russia's control over 29 billion tons of iron ore resources poses a significant threat to the global iron ore-dollar system, potentially destabilizing commodity pricing [7][12] - The iron ore reserves controlled by Russia account for 14% of the world's proven reserves, which could lead to a rapid depreciation of the Australian dollar [7] - The energy crisis is not just a military conflict but also a competition between the speed of power restoration and the frequency of missile strikes, highlighting the strategic importance of energy resources [13] Group 3: Limitations of Western Support - Western aid to Ukraine has not effectively changed the situation, with significant delays in the repair of critical power stations compared to the frequency of Russian attacks [10] - The cost of Western military support, such as the IRIS-T air defense systems, is significantly higher than the cost of Russian drones, which complicates the economic sustainability of Ukraine's defense efforts [11] Group 4: Future Challenges - The upcoming winter is expected to exacerbate Ukraine's energy shortfall, potentially increasing the gap to 30% [12] - The shift of Russian iron ore exports towards China may reshape global commodity pricing dynamics [12]

Core Points - The article highlights the severe impact of Russian military attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, particularly as winter approaches, leading to widespread power outages and humanitarian crises [1][3] - It emphasizes the strategic nature of these attacks, which are part of a planned "energy winter operation" by Russian forces, resulting in nearly 3,000 strikes on energy facilities since March, significantly more than in 2022 [3] Energy Infrastructure Impact - On October 3, Russian forces launched a coordinated attack involving 70 missiles and 200 drones, targeting key energy facilities, leaving over 100,000 households without power [1][3] - The ongoing attacks have led to the Ukrainian government implementing rolling blackouts, with power being supplied only for three hours a day in some areas [3] Humanitarian Consequences - The article describes the dire situation faced by civilians, including shortages of heating and electricity, with families resorting to candles and generators for basic needs [3] - Specific accounts illustrate the struggles of individuals, such as a grandmother sewing a coat for her grandson by candlelight and a hospital relying on diesel generators for critical care [3] Repair and Maintenance Challenges - Energy repair crews are overwhelmed, with reports indicating that they can only sustain repairs for about two weeks due to dwindling spare parts and equipment [3] - The article notes that despite international aid, including $700 million from the EU and $192 million from the UK, the speed of repairs cannot keep pace with the frequency of attacks [3] Broader Implications - The article argues that while Russia's energy warfare strategy is evident, it is crucial to consider the humanitarian impact on civilians, particularly vulnerable populations like children [3] - It concludes that the ongoing conflict not only disrupts energy supplies but also threatens the basic living conditions and safety of ordinary people in Ukraine [3]