能源开采｜2026 策略报告 20251215 摘要 OPEC 在 2025 年四季度暂停增产，并计划在 2026 年一季度继续暂停， 此策略转变优于市场预期，有助于缓解供给压力，支撑 65 美元/桶以上 的油价。 炼化行业自 2022 年起已触底四年，部分品种长期亏损，预计未来 3-5 年有望迎来上行周期，但具体节奏和高度需结合中国和全球平衡表及具 体品种进行观察。 2025 年政策已对煤炭市场产生筑底作用，预计 2026 年煤价中枢将高 于 2025 年，或高出几十到一百元，下限保住 700 元/吨，高点可能在 850 元/吨左右，动力煤底部已过，板块体现红利属性。 近期天然气市场变化显著，美国 Henry Hub 价格上涨，欧美价差收敛， 原因、持续性及对中国市场的影响需进一步关注。 2025 年中国战略储备大规模补库，未来仍有补库意愿，新《能源法》 要求企业承担原油战略储备责任，并计划新建储油设施，增加 1.7 亿桶 容量。 Q&A 2026 年原油市场的总体预期如何？ 对于 2026 年的原油市场，我们持相对乐观的态度。尽管供应平衡表和库存方 面存在一定压力，但从 OPEC 剩余产能以及非商业机构投 ...

储气库每年7个月注气，4个月采气。采用我国自主研发的40兆帕高压大排量离心式注气压缩机，实现成套设备100%国产化，大幅提升储气库的注气效率。 中国石油塔里木油田迪那采油气管理区设备工程师 张勇：经过严格测试，其机械性能和试验主要指标均达到了国际先进水平，填补了国内空白。 今天（12月3日），记者从中国石油了解到，塔里木盆地最大储气库——塔里木油田牙哈储气库地面扩建工程日前完工，日注气能力增加1000万立方米。 牙哈储气库依托深层高压大型整装的牙哈凝析气田而建设，气藏平均埋深超5100米，是我国在超5000米地下深层建设的库容量最大的储气库。 中国石油塔里木油田迪那采油气管理区经理 陈文龙：牙哈储气库新建集注站1座，最高日产气可达2000万立方米，承担着西气东输管网的季节调峰、应急供 气、国家能源战略储备等重要任务。 在加快地面建设的同时，塔里木油田提前着手开展环塔里木盆地4座储气库年度注气，注气量达12亿立方米，创下历史新高。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal-to-gas industry is experiencing a revival due to improved market conditions, including a market-oriented pricing mechanism, fair access to national pipelines, and advancements in coal chemical technology [1][2][13] - There are currently 12 coal-to-gas projects planned in China, with a total capacity of 44 billion cubic meters per year, indicating a renewed interest in the sector [1][13] - The cost structure of coal-to-gas production shows that coal and depreciation account for approximately 73% of total costs, making coal prices and investment costs critical to competitiveness [2][31] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context and Current Landscape - Prior to 2017, China planned 70 coal-to-gas projects, but only 4 were realized due to various constraints, including high coal prices and low gas prices [10] - As of 2025, only 4 companies are operational in the coal-to-gas sector, with a total capacity of about 7.5 billion cubic meters per year [10] 2. Catalysts for Industry Growth 2.1 Technological Advancements - Significant improvements in coal gasification technology have been made, enhancing the efficiency and economic viability of coal-to-gas projects [16][17] - The development of large-scale gasification equipment has reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [17] 2.2 Policy Changes - The introduction of a market-oriented pricing mechanism for coal-to-gas has improved profitability potential for projects [20] - The national pipeline reform has facilitated fair access for coal-to-gas companies, enhancing competition and operational viability [21][22] 2.3 Resource Availability - Xinjiang is identified as a major coal resource area, providing sufficient raw materials for coal-to-gas projects [24][25] - The region's coal production has increased significantly, supporting the growth of coal-to-gas initiatives [25] 2.4 Market Demand - The demand for natural gas in China is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable market environment for coal-to-gas projects [28] - The expected annual increase in natural gas demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is estimated at 20.7 billion cubic meters [28] 3. Cost Competitiveness - The cost structure analysis indicates that coal prices significantly influence the profitability of coal-to-gas projects, with a stable low coal price being essential for economic viability [31][38] - A coal price of 200 RMB per ton allows for a production cost of approximately 1.46 RMB per cubic meter of gas, leading to a potential net profit of around 1.6 billion RMB for a 2 billion cubic meter project [2][36][38]

2025年这阵子，全球油市有点不太寻常。 这波操作引得外界议论纷纷，有人猜测是不是地缘局势有变，也有人怀疑是不是经济要加速启动了。 但真正的答案，其实没那么神秘，也没那么刺激，它更像是一场系统性的"提前准备"，一场以法律、科 技、地缘和金融为支撑的战略布局。 油不是乱囤的，是有章有法的国家工程 要理解这场"囤油大戏"，得先从20251月1日年正式实施的新《能源法》说起。 这部法律不光是写在纸上的条文，它直接规定了国家、企业、地方都必须参与战略能源储备，而且把这 项任务变成了硬性义务。 以前大家囤油，更多是出于企业经营考量，现在倒好，国家出手定规矩，谁都得按章程来。 尤其是国有能源企业，储备任务直接和业绩挂钩，做得好不好一目了然。地方政府也得配合，不能光靠 中央"兜底"，要上下联动、全国一盘棋。 油价不涨，交易却热闹得很，业内人一查数据才发现：中国成了幕后最大"买家"。有几个月，中国一个 国家的原油进口量，几乎"包圆"了全球新增库存的九成。 法律立住了，还得有地方放油。这些年中国在全国范围布局了不少大型储油基地，从东部沿海到内陆腹 地，储油能力已经提升到了一个新台阶。 据公开信息，全国战略和商业石油储备总和接近 ...