证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20251110-20251116） 推荐（维持） 新疆天业拟与天池能源设立合资公司 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 相关研究报告 《新疆周报（20251027-20251102）：国家能源 集团哈密煤制油配套 1500 万吨煤矿项目获批》 2025-11-03 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 本周新疆指数 131.19，环比+1.29%；新疆煤化工投资指数 129.74，环比- 0.48%；新疆国企改革指数 133.26，环比+2.30%。本周涨幅前三：合金投资 （000633.SZ）上涨+20.85%，中基健康（000972.SZ）上涨+13.03%，ST 天山 （300313.SZ）上涨+11.87%。本周跌幅前三：东华科技（002140.SZ）下跌- 5.61%，特变电工（ ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianye and Tianchi Energy have established a joint venture to explore new opportunities in the coal chemical industry, leveraging their respective strengths and resources in Xinjiang [1][2] Group 1: Joint Venture Formation - The joint venture will be 51% owned by Xinjiang Tianye and 49% by Tianchi Energy, focusing on coal chemical projects [1] - The partnership aims to promote the early-stage work of coal chemical projects in the region [1] Group 2: Resource and Production Capacity - Tianchi Energy holds exploration rights for four coal mines in Xinjiang, with a total proven coal reserve of 12.6 billion tons and an approved production capacity of 74 million tons per year [1] - The company has initiated a coal-to-natural gas project with a capacity of 20 billion cubic meters per year, which commenced construction at the end of September [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Future Outlook - China's natural gas consumption is projected to reach 426 billion cubic meters in 2024, with imports accounting for 181.7 billion cubic meters [2] - By 2030, natural gas consumption is expected to grow to approximately 550 to 600 billion cubic meters, indicating a strong market for coal-to-gas projects as domestic alternatives to imported gas [1][2] Group 4: Strategic Importance - The establishment of the joint venture aligns with Xinjiang Tianye's strategic development goals and is seen as a significant step for the company's future growth [2] - The joint venture will focus on sustainable development in coal chemical production by adopting advanced clean production technologies and optimizing processes to reduce energy consumption and emissions [2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal-to-gas industry is experiencing a revival due to improved market conditions, including a market-oriented pricing mechanism, fair access to national pipelines, and advancements in coal chemical technology [1][2][13] - There are currently 12 coal-to-gas projects planned in China, with a total capacity of 44 billion cubic meters per year, indicating a renewed interest in the sector [1][13] - The cost structure of coal-to-gas production shows that coal and depreciation account for approximately 73% of total costs, making coal prices and investment costs critical to competitiveness [2][31] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context and Current Landscape - Prior to 2017, China planned 70 coal-to-gas projects, but only 4 were realized due to various constraints, including high coal prices and low gas prices [10] - As of 2025, only 4 companies are operational in the coal-to-gas sector, with a total capacity of about 7.5 billion cubic meters per year [10] 2. Catalysts for Industry Growth 2.1 Technological Advancements - Significant improvements in coal gasification technology have been made, enhancing the efficiency and economic viability of coal-to-gas projects [16][17] - The development of large-scale gasification equipment has reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [17] 2.2 Policy Changes - The introduction of a market-oriented pricing mechanism for coal-to-gas has improved profitability potential for projects [20] - The national pipeline reform has facilitated fair access for coal-to-gas companies, enhancing competition and operational viability [21][22] 2.3 Resource Availability - Xinjiang is identified as a major coal resource area, providing sufficient raw materials for coal-to-gas projects [24][25] - The region's coal production has increased significantly, supporting the growth of coal-to-gas initiatives [25] 2.4 Market Demand - The demand for natural gas in China is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable market environment for coal-to-gas projects [28] - The expected annual increase in natural gas demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is estimated at 20.7 billion cubic meters [28] 3. Cost Competitiveness - The cost structure analysis indicates that coal prices significantly influence the profitability of coal-to-gas projects, with a stable low coal price being essential for economic viability [31][38] - A coal price of 200 RMB per ton allows for a production cost of approximately 1.46 RMB per cubic meter of gas, leading to a potential net profit of around 1.6 billion RMB for a 2 billion cubic meter project [2][36][38]

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 15.6 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%; the single-quarter net profit was 400 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year, but up 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The LNG business showed good development, while the LPG business was impacted by extreme weather and maintenance activities, with an estimated total impact of approximately 97 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in the second phase of the coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, which is expected to produce 5.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [2] - Upon completion, the project is anticipated to generate sales revenue of approximately 7.3 billion yuan and a total profit of about 1.5 billion yuan [2] - The company expects to accelerate the promotion of the Xinjiang coal-to-gas project and finalize the construction of the Huizhou LPG storage base to support long-term high-quality development and performance growth [2] Group 3 - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.576 billion yuan, 1.880 billion yuan, and 2.153 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The coal-to-gas layout is expected to open up medium to long-term growth opportunities for the company [2]

Summary of TBEA Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TBEA Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Power transmission and transformation, new energy, coal, and coal chemical industry Key Points Financial Performance - **Total Revenue Growth**: Over 30% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - **Electrical Equipment Revenue**: Increased by 24% [2][3] - **Complete Engineering Revenue**: Grew by 17.86% [2][3] - **Domestic Market Contracts**: Grew by 9.4% [2][3] - **International Market Contracts**: Increased by over 80%, with new orders reaching $1.24 billion [2][3][7] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon Production**: 59,400 tons produced, with sales of 54,700 tons, generating revenue of 1.753 billion yuan [3] - **EPC/BT Business**: Revenue from photovoltaic and wind power projects reached 4.813 billion yuan [3] - **Profit from Power Station Operations**: Total profit of 1.166 billion yuan [2][3] High Voltage Projects - **Progress**: Slow due to inter-provincial coordination and government approvals, but bidding has started for several projects [4] - **Future Construction**: Expected to start 4-5 new DC lines annually to meet increasing electricity demand [4] Profit Growth Factors - **Profit Growth vs. Revenue Growth**: Profit growth outpaced revenue growth due to product and market structure adjustments [5][6] - **Export Contribution**: Increased export ratio with higher profitability compared to domestic sales [6] International Market Strategy - **Current International Revenue**: Approximately 11% of total revenue [8] - **Future Target**: Aim to increase international revenue share to over 30% by 2030 [8][20] - **Market Focus**: Emphasis on grid upgrades in developed countries and renewable energy needs in developing countries [2][9] Coal Supply and Pricing - **Stability in Xinjiang Coal Supply**: Minimal impact from national supply tightening due to Xinjiang's abundant resources [13][15] - **Coal Pricing**: Prices remained stable with slight seasonal increases expected [15] Strategic Development - **Future Plans**: Focus on expanding polysilicon capacity, developing new energy projects, and enhancing coal production [24][38] - **New Materials Sector**: Expected growth driven by rising aluminum prices and new projects [38] Challenges and Opportunities - **Global Power Supply Challenges**: Aging grids and insufficient dispatch technology for high renewable energy ratios [28] - **AI Data Center Demand**: Increased demand for power equipment due to the growth of AI data centers [26][27] Product Development and Innovation - **New Product Lines**: Plans to develop new products for energy quality management and storage solutions [22] - **Research and Development**: Continuous investment in R&D to enhance product offerings and meet market demands [32][33] Market Expansion - **Overseas Production Strategy**: Establishing assembly plants in high-demand regions like the Middle East to reduce costs [23] - **Collaboration with Multinational Corporations**: Potential partnerships with companies like Siemens and ABB to enhance production capacity [11] Future Outlook - **Overall Growth Confidence**: Positive outlook for 2026 with expected improvements across various sectors [39]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that Xinjiang is positioned as a frontier hub benefiting from the shift from coastal economies to the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing its geopolitical advantage [7] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to thrive due to favorable external conditions, including rising coal prices and strategic resource allocation [7][8] - The focus is on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang [7][11] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang Index is reported at 125.30, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.52%, while the Xinjiang Coal Chemical Investment Index is at 124.22, down 0.50% [13] - The top three gainers this week include Hangyang Co., Ltd. (up 12.22%), Daqo New Energy Corp. (up 11.38%), and Unification Enterprise (up 6.57%) [13][14] Key Data Tracking - Key coal prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 215 CNY/ton, and main coking coal at 700 CNY/ton [20] - In September 2025, the coal railway dispatch volume from state-owned key coal mines was 3.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, while the raw coal output was 43.563 million tons, down 2.57% year-on-year [20] Key News and Company Announcements - The National Energy Group's coal-to-oil project in Hami, with a total investment of 13.284 billion CNY, has been approved, marking the start of substantial construction [4][33] - The Xinjiang New Industry Group's coal-to-natural gas project, with an investment of 15.5 billion CNY, has also received approval, aiming for an annual production capacity of 2 billion cubic meters [33][38] Overview of Key Coal Chemical Projects - The report outlines significant coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including a coal-to-natural gas project with a total investment of 167.93 billion CNY and a production capacity of 20 billion cubic meters per year [38][39] - The total planned capacity for coal chemical projects in Xinjiang includes 41.6 billion cubic meters for coal-to-natural gas, 5 million tons for coal-to-oil, and 945 million tons for coal-to-olefins, with a total investment of 962.8 billion CNY [40][41]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 15.608 billion yuan (down 8.45% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.241 billion yuan (down 19.13% year-on-year) [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to extreme weather impacts, operational costs, and expenses related to employee incentive plans [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.180 billion yuan (down 10.39% year-on-year) and net profit of 0.380 billion yuan (down 11.29% year-on-year) [1] - The total impact on pre-tax profit due to extreme weather and operational issues was approximately 82 million yuan and 15 million yuan, respectively [1] LNG and LPG Business Outlook - The LNG business showed resilience with steady growth in gross profit, despite a challenging market environment characterized by supply surplus and price pressure [2] - The completion of maintenance at the Guangzhou Huakai receiving station and the establishment of a dynamic operation system for LPG are expected to enhance LPG sales [2] - The company anticipates improved profitability in its LPG business following the resolution of weather-related disruptions [2] Investment Plans - The company plans to invest in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, aiming to produce 5.5 billion cubic meters of synthetic natural gas annually, with a total investment of 23.033 billion yuan [3] - This project is expected to fill the company's resource gap and diversify its upstream resource pool [3] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 22.865 billion yuan, 25.18 billion yuan, and 27.138 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.7%, 10.1%, and 7.8% respectively [4] - Net profit projections for the same period are 1.763 billion yuan, 1.966 billion yuan, and 2.104 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.7%, 11.5%, and 7.1% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiufeng Energy (605090) [1] Core Views - Jiufeng Energy is advancing into the Xinjiang Yili coal-to-gas project, marking a new journey as a comprehensive energy service provider. The project has received approval from the National Development and Reform Commission and is progressing well in environmental assessments and safety reviews [1][9] - The total investment for the project is RMB 23 billion, with Jiufeng Energy contributing RMB 3.45 billion and holding a 50% stake, which corresponds to an annual production capacity of 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas [1] - The coal-to-gas project is expected to benefit from low coal prices, enhancing profitability even if natural gas prices decline. The project is positioned favorably on the cost curve, with significant potential for returns exceeding market expectations [9] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for Jiufeng Energy is expected to decline by 17.0% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 2.2% in 2025, before rebounding with growth rates of 22.1% in 2026 and 11.2% in 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.684 billion in 2024, with a growth of 28.9%, followed by a decrease of 5.4% in 2025, and then growth rates of 11.0% and 16.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4] - The target price for Jiufeng Energy is set at RMB 45.72, with the current price at RMB 33.07, indicating significant upside potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiufeng Energy announced its plan to invest in the second phase of the Xinjiang Qinghua coal-to-natural gas demonstration project, in collaboration with Xinjiang Qinghua and Henan Silk Road, with a total investment of 23.033 billion yuan [1] Investment Details - The total investment for the project is 23.033 billion yuan, with Jiufeng Energy contributing no more than 3.455 billion yuan, which will grant it a 50% stake in the second phase, corresponding to an annual production of 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas [1] - The project is located in the Yili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang and has completed energy-saving assessments and is actively conducting environmental impact evaluations and safety reviews [1] Resource Consumption - The second phase is expected to consume 11.796 million tons of raw coal annually, primarily sourced from the Yining No. 2 and No. 7 mines, with an estimated annual water usage of approximately 22.316 million cubic meters [1] - Relevant water extraction permits have been obtained for the project [1] Infrastructure Development - Xinjiang Qinghua has completed a 43-kilometer gas pipeline from the coal-to-gas base to the national pipeline network, allowing the coal-to-natural gas to be fed into the main pipeline of the West-to-East Gas Transmission project [1] Strategic Implications - The implementation of this project will address Jiufeng Energy's shortfall in equity gas resources, creating a diversified upstream resource pool consisting of "equity gas + long-term contract gas + spot gas" [1] - The future core resources will be a combination of equity gas and long-term contract gas, significantly enhancing cost advantages and self-control capabilities [1]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a frontline hub due to the Belt and Road Initiative. This shift positions Xinjiang as a key player in energy security and coal chemical industry development [7][8] - The report identifies two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang. It suggests that the external environment for coal chemical development is now favorable, driven by rising coal prices and the need for energy security [7][10] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 125.47, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.43%. The coal chemical investment index is at 122.27, down 7.19%, while the state-owned enterprise reform index is at 130.68, down 0.61% [14] - The report lists the top gainers and losers in the market, with Huijia Times (603101.SH) up 13.82% and Guangdong Hongda (002683.SZ) down 12.21% [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 215 CNY/ton, and urea at 1430 CNY/ton, with a price difference of -130 CNY/ton compared to Shandong [18][27] - In September 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, while the raw coal production in August was 42.2 million tons, down 2.18% year-on-year [18][30] Key News and Company Announcements - On October 14, a key evaluation meeting for the Xinjiang New Industry Group's 2 billion cubic meters/year coal-to-natural gas project was held, marking a significant step towards project approval and construction [33][37] - Several other coal chemical projects are progressing, including a 60,000 tons/year synthetic gas ethanol project and a 1.5 million tons/year coal clean utilization project, indicating a robust pipeline of developments in the sector [36][37] Overview of Target Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal chemical investments in Xinjiang, such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, Jiufeng Energy, and Baofeng Energy, as well as service providers and local state-owned enterprises that may benefit from ongoing reforms [11][12][40]