近日，中国平煤神马(新疆)能源公司(下称新疆能源)下属企业四棵树煤炭公司首年盈利超3000万元，铁 厂沟一号井项目刷新全国建矿审批速度，该公司更以"一总部四基地"布局为平煤神马集团构建起辐射中 亚的战略支点。 作为中国平煤神马集团"西进"战略的核心载体，新疆能源自2025年5月成立以来，紧紧围绕"能源安全强 支撑、产业发展新高地、国际化经营排头兵"战略定位，加速推进战略实施。 四棵树煤炭公司作为中国平煤神马集团在疆收购的首个生产矿井，通过精细化管理和流程优化，实 现"当年融合、当年见效"的突破，全年煤炭产销达120万吨，利润突破3000万元，验证了域外项目作为 中国平煤神马集团高质量发展重要利润源的战略定位。 据悉，新疆能源已经全面铺开"一总部四基地"战略布局。乌鲁木齐总部作为区域运营管理、资本运作、 科技创新、市场服务的核心枢纽，统筹吐哈、准东、伊犁、塔城四大基地发展。吐哈地区聚焦煤炭开采 与分质分级利用，建设千万吨级高端煤化工基地；准东地区发展煤制天然气、煤电一体化及疆电入豫第 二通道，打造绿色低碳产业集群；伊犁地区重点培育光伏、储能、新材料等新能源产业；塔城地区结合 新疆棉纺织业优势，发展尼龙66民用丝 ...

《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》提出，扩大有效投资，促进转型升级，科学调控重大 项目建设;加强现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险；适度布局煤制油气、 煤制化学品项目，开展煤化工与新能源耦合、先进材料、技术装备、工业操作系统等产业化应用示范， 以及二氧化碳捕集、利用及封存工程示范。 然而，"碳多氢少"的先天不足使煤化工成为排碳大户。做好碳排放的"减法"，成为必然。 我国70%以上的合成氨、甲醇产能以煤为原料，43%的乙二醇产能采用煤化工路线。在合成氨和甲醇两 种产品纳入碳交易市场已进入倒计时的背景下，煤化工企业实现源头减碳、过程降碳、末端固碳及二氧 化碳资源化利用刻不容缓。 2025年11月11日，陕煤集团榆林化学有限责任公司400万吨/年碳捕集与封存(CCS)示范项目先导试验工 程榆碳1井首次注入成功，二氧化碳"捕集—输送—封存"项目全流程打通，填补了我国现代煤化工大规 模碳捕集与封存工程化应用领域的空白。该公司总经理段立波表示，项目为在西北地区构建国家级碳减 排示范基地提供了技术支撑与工程实践经验，助推煤化工行业低碳绿色发展。 在做好"减法"的同时，煤化工与新能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has revised and issued the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" to enhance the clean and efficient utilization of coal in line with national policies and the "dual carbon" goals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Framework - The "2025 Edition" aims to strengthen the leading role of benchmark levels and the constraint role of baseline levels in the coal industry, promoting a transition from low-end to high-end coal products [1][3]. - The document reflects the urgency of updating standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, as the proportion of coal in total energy consumption is projected to decrease from 56.7% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Key Updates and Adjustments - Compared to the previous "2022 Edition," the "2025 Edition" expands the applicable scope by adding two new areas: coal-to-natural gas and coal-to-oil, while also introducing new efficiency indicators for existing sectors [5][6]. - The updated indicators reflect recent national standards and policies, enhancing the constraints and guiding roles of the benchmark and baseline levels [6][7]. Group 3: Implementation and Support - The "2025 Edition" encourages enterprises to upgrade projects to meet benchmark levels, with a focus on categorizing management for new and existing projects [7][8]. - Specific timelines for upgrades are set, generally not exceeding three years, with a clear directive for projects failing to meet standards to be phased out [7][8]. - Financial and technical support mechanisms will be enhanced to facilitate the transition to cleaner and more efficient coal utilization, including funding, financial policies, and preferential policies for equipment and technology upgrades [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the investment in the industry is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly debt resolution by local governments and the implementation of central "dual heavy" projects [1][15] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a robust backlog ensuring long-term stable growth. The cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 show a mixed trend, with a notable improvement in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][15] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure. Despite revenue and profit pressures, the company has implemented a three-year plan to control financial metrics, resulting in a significant reduction in cash outflow [3][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, affecting infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate sectors. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests stabilization due to government initiatives [1][15] Company Performance - The company’s new contract amounts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 are as follows: +10.39% in 2021, +15.09% in 2022, +1.51% in 2023, -7.80% in 2024, and +3.08% in 2025. The first three quarters of 2025 show a marginal improvement in new orders [2][15] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts amounting to 8.10 trillion RMB, which is sufficient to support long-term growth [2][15] Financial Health - The company reported total revenue of 728.4 billion RMB in 2025Q1-3, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.8 billion RMB, down 5.6% year-on-year. The company is focusing on financial recovery through a three-year plan [3][15] - The aging structure of accounts receivable has improved, with the proportion of long-term receivables decreasing, indicating better cash flow management [3][15] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report notes a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares, with H-share PE (TTM) at 3.6X and PB at 0.25X, making it more attractive for dividends, with H-share dividend yield at 5.93% [3][15] - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 at 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.3 billion RMB respectively, with a target market cap of 779 billion RMB based on a PE of 3.6X for 2026 [4][15]

反内卷与查超产推动动力煤筑底，本地消纳与疆煤外送需求共振。2025 年7 月以来，国家能源局及各省 区要求核查煤矿产能，煤价自底部反弹；公司露天煤矿开采成本低，且煤矿周围密布高能耗企业，后续 受益于铁路外运量提升，煤炭业绩有望触底反弹。 煤电联营成本优势显著，煤化工项目开工建设。公司运营4 座火力发电厂，其中准东坑口电站通过输煤 廊道直供电厂，显著降低发电成本，盈利能力稳健。2025 年6 月，公司20.5 亿Nm?/年煤制天然气项目 获核准，建设周期预计约3 年。 公司是输变电制造与能源企业，同时也是新疆优质动力煤生产商。公司业务涵盖高端输变电装备与工程 服务、动力煤产销、火电、多晶硅生产以及新能源工程建设与运营。截至2025 年6 月底，公司煤炭资源 储量约120 亿吨，主要煤种为不粘煤，旗下拥有3 座准东露天煤矿，核定产能7400 万吨/年，未来经各 部门审批有望提升至1.64 亿吨/年。公司已形成煤-电-硅一体化布局，参与疆煤外运、疆电外送，并推进 20 亿Nm?/年煤制天然气项目建设，投产后将接入西气东输管道、进一步增厚公司业绩。 电网改造与出海共振，电气装备景气度持续高企。受"风光大基地"建设和国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Securities research report indicates that Jiufeng Energy is continuously implementing its "onshore" development strategy, leveraging both "marine gas" and "land gas" upstream resources for rapid growth [1] Company Summary - On September 30, 2025, Jiufeng Energy announced its investment in the second phase of the Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group's 4 billion cubic meters coal-to-natural gas project, marking the company's official entry into the Xinjiang coal-to-gas sector [1] - The timing of Jiufeng Energy's entry into the coal-to-gas industry and strategic positioning in Xinjiang reflects significant changes in the local coal-to-gas market [1] - The profitability of coal-to-gas projects is highly sensitive to raw coal prices, with core competitiveness relying on the ability to acquire and control low-cost coal resources [1] - Jiufeng Energy's Qinghua Phase II coal-to-gas project is expected to benefit from local coal mines, initiating a predictable and relatively secure second growth curve [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating for its stock [1]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national energy security and the Belt and Road Initiative, highlighting its transition from a peripheral region to a key energy hub [7][8][10] - The focus is on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms, which are seen as critical for Xinjiang's economic development [11][10] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang Index stands at 131.19, with a week-on-week increase of 1.29%. The coal chemical investment index is at 129.74, down 0.48%, while the state-owned enterprise reform index is at 133.26, up 2.30% [14] - Notable stock performances include Alloy Investment (+20.85%), Zhongji Health (+13.03%), and ST Tianshan (+11.87%), while Donghua Technology (-5.61%), TBEA (-10.72%), and Bayi Steel (-12.36%) saw declines [14][16] Key Data Tracking - Key coal prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 215 CNY/ton, and main coking coal at 700 CNY/ton. Methanol prices are at 1630 CNY/ton, and urea prices are at 1443 CNY/ton [21] - In October 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines totaled 3.429 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%, while raw coal production in September was 43.563 million tons, down 2.57% year-on-year [21] Key News and Company Announcements - Xinjiang Tianye plans to establish a joint venture with Tianchi Energy, named Xinjiang Tiantian United New Materials Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 50 million CNY, aimed at developing green low-carbon technologies in coal chemical processes [4][35] - The report highlights significant progress in major coal chemical projects, including the completion of 108 km of pipeline for the coal-to-gas project in the eastern region, which is expected to enhance natural gas supply capabilities [35][37] Coal Chemical Development Advantages - Xinjiang possesses inherent advantages for coal chemical development, including improved transportation infrastructure, a growing industrial base, and enhanced human resources due to educational investments [8][9] - The economic advantages of Xinjiang's coal chemical sector are underscored by lower raw material costs compared to other regions, despite higher transportation costs to end markets [9][10] Project Progress and Investment Opportunities - The report outlines significant planned capacities and investments in coal chemical projects, totaling 962.8 billion CNY across various sectors, including coal-to-gas, coal-to-oil, and coal-to-olefins [41][44] - Key companies to watch include TBEA, Jiufeng Energy, Baofeng Energy, and local state-owned enterprises that are expected to benefit from ongoing reforms and investment opportunities [13][11]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianye and Tianchi Energy have established a joint venture to explore new opportunities in the coal chemical industry, leveraging their respective strengths and resources in Xinjiang [1][2] Group 1: Joint Venture Formation - The joint venture will be 51% owned by Xinjiang Tianye and 49% by Tianchi Energy, focusing on coal chemical projects [1] - The partnership aims to promote the early-stage work of coal chemical projects in the region [1] Group 2: Resource and Production Capacity - Tianchi Energy holds exploration rights for four coal mines in Xinjiang, with a total proven coal reserve of 12.6 billion tons and an approved production capacity of 74 million tons per year [1] - The company has initiated a coal-to-natural gas project with a capacity of 20 billion cubic meters per year, which commenced construction at the end of September [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Future Outlook - China's natural gas consumption is projected to reach 426 billion cubic meters in 2024, with imports accounting for 181.7 billion cubic meters [2] - By 2030, natural gas consumption is expected to grow to approximately 550 to 600 billion cubic meters, indicating a strong market for coal-to-gas projects as domestic alternatives to imported gas [1][2] Group 4: Strategic Importance - The establishment of the joint venture aligns with Xinjiang Tianye's strategic development goals and is seen as a significant step for the company's future growth [2] - The joint venture will focus on sustainable development in coal chemical production by adopting advanced clean production technologies and optimizing processes to reduce energy consumption and emissions [2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal-to-gas industry is experiencing a revival due to improved market conditions, including a market-oriented pricing mechanism, fair access to national pipelines, and advancements in coal chemical technology [1][2][13] - There are currently 12 coal-to-gas projects planned in China, with a total capacity of 44 billion cubic meters per year, indicating a renewed interest in the sector [1][13] - The cost structure of coal-to-gas production shows that coal and depreciation account for approximately 73% of total costs, making coal prices and investment costs critical to competitiveness [2][31] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context and Current Landscape - Prior to 2017, China planned 70 coal-to-gas projects, but only 4 were realized due to various constraints, including high coal prices and low gas prices [10] - As of 2025, only 4 companies are operational in the coal-to-gas sector, with a total capacity of about 7.5 billion cubic meters per year [10] 2. Catalysts for Industry Growth 2.1 Technological Advancements - Significant improvements in coal gasification technology have been made, enhancing the efficiency and economic viability of coal-to-gas projects [16][17] - The development of large-scale gasification equipment has reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [17] 2.2 Policy Changes - The introduction of a market-oriented pricing mechanism for coal-to-gas has improved profitability potential for projects [20] - The national pipeline reform has facilitated fair access for coal-to-gas companies, enhancing competition and operational viability [21][22] 2.3 Resource Availability - Xinjiang is identified as a major coal resource area, providing sufficient raw materials for coal-to-gas projects [24][25] - The region's coal production has increased significantly, supporting the growth of coal-to-gas initiatives [25] 2.4 Market Demand - The demand for natural gas in China is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable market environment for coal-to-gas projects [28] - The expected annual increase in natural gas demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is estimated at 20.7 billion cubic meters [28] 3. Cost Competitiveness - The cost structure analysis indicates that coal prices significantly influence the profitability of coal-to-gas projects, with a stable low coal price being essential for economic viability [31][38] - A coal price of 200 RMB per ton allows for a production cost of approximately 1.46 RMB per cubic meter of gas, leading to a potential net profit of around 1.6 billion RMB for a 2 billion cubic meter project [2][36][38]

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 15.6 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%; the single-quarter net profit was 400 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year, but up 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The LNG business showed good development, while the LPG business was impacted by extreme weather and maintenance activities, with an estimated total impact of approximately 97 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in the second phase of the coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, which is expected to produce 5.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [2] - Upon completion, the project is anticipated to generate sales revenue of approximately 7.3 billion yuan and a total profit of about 1.5 billion yuan [2] - The company expects to accelerate the promotion of the Xinjiang coal-to-gas project and finalize the construction of the Huizhou LPG storage base to support long-term high-quality development and performance growth [2] Group 3 - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.576 billion yuan, 1.880 billion yuan, and 2.153 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The coal-to-gas layout is expected to open up medium to long-term growth opportunities for the company [2]