Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by an improved order structure and effective cost control [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 107.403 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.852 billion, up 115.41% year-on-year for the first three quarters [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company recorded a revenue of 34.763 billion, a 4.76% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.074 billion, reflecting a 97.56% year-on-year growth [1]. Order and Profitability - The company’s order structure has been optimized, with a focus on high-value and green ship types, leading to an increase in profitability [2][3]. - The gross margin for the main business reached 12.56% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the delivery of higher-value ship orders [3]. Cost Control - The company has demonstrated effective cost management, with reductions in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [3]. - The sales expense ratio was 0.21%, management expense ratio was 4.07%, R&D expense ratio was 3.45%, and financial expense ratio was -1.53%, showing a decrease in most areas compared to the previous year [3]. Strategic Developments - The completion of the merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) has optimized the company’s shipbuilding resources and enhanced its competitive position in the global market [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the elimination of previous policy constraints, with new orders anticipated to be released as the shipbuilding industry continues to recover [4]. Market Outlook - The shipbuilding industry has shown sustained improvement since early 2025, with increasing demand for new ships and green technologies [4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 10.315 billion and 18.171 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25 and 14 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in revenue and accelerated performance release due to an increase in the number and price of ship deliveries in the third quarter, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 17.96% for the first three quarters [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters reached 12.56%, an increase of 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, supported by effective cost control measures [2][10]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with orders scheduled until 2029, indicating strong future performance support [2][10]. - The merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) has improved shipbuilding efficiency and is expected to enhance profitability further [2][10]. - The global shipbuilding market is anticipated to recover, with new orders likely to flow back to China, benefiting the company as a leading shipbuilder [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 107.403 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.852 billion, up 115.41% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 34.763 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.76%, and a net profit of 2.074 billion, reflecting a 97.56% increase year-on-year [4]. Order and Delivery Structure - The company has optimized its order structure, focusing on high-value and new energy ship types, leading to a steady increase in deliveries [2][10]. - The order backlog is full, with some orders scheduled as far out as 2029, providing a solid foundation for future revenue [2][10]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in various expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [10]. - The gross profit margin has improved due to a higher proportion of high-value orders being delivered [10]. Market Outlook - The merger with CSIC is expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the global shipbuilding market, particularly in high-end and green ship types [10]. - The lifting of certain trade restrictions is anticipated to lead to a recovery in new ship orders, further benefiting the company [10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the shipbuilding sector, specifically highlighting companies such as China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, China Ship Defense, China Power, and others as key players in the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing robust growth with a revenue of 210.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, which is a 103% increase compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The order backlog remains strong, with a significant increase in high-value orders, indicating a positive outlook for revenue and profit margin recovery in the coming years [27][40]. - The global shipbuilding market is characterized by a supply-demand gap, with a hand-held order coverage of 3.8 years, which is at a historical high, while the proportion of hand-held orders in total capacity is at a historical low of 12% [52][56]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, the shipbuilding sector achieved a revenue of 210.3 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 103% growth [3][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 45.1 billion yuan, also up 12% year-on-year, indicating sustained growth [7][13]. Order Backlog and Market Dynamics - As of Q1 2025, the global shipbuilding order backlog reached 381 million deadweight tons, a 2% increase from the end of 2024, with expectations for a delivery volume of 97.28 million deadweight tons in 2025, representing a 9% increase [52][47]. - The report notes that the ship price index remains high, with a slight decrease of 1% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable pricing environment despite fluctuations [40][36]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that despite challenges from U.S. sanctions, China's position as a global leader in shipbuilding remains unshaken, with a market share of approximately 54% in new orders as of Q1 2025 [71][80]. - The average age of the global fleet is increasing, leading to a projected demand for new vessels, with an estimated annual delivery requirement of about 110 million deadweight tons from 2025 to 2030, driven largely by the need to replace aging ships [59][60]. Future Outlook - The shipbuilding sector is expected to continue benefiting from high demand for bulk carriers, with a focus on high-value orders and improved profit margins as the industry recovers from previous downturns [27][4]. - The report anticipates that the transition to alternative energy vessels will accelerate, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the need for fleet modernization [60][61].

证券分析师：韦译捷 执业证书编号：S0600524080006 证券研究报告·行业研究·专业服务 船舶行业2024年报&2025年一季报总结 在手订单饱满，业绩加速释放 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 我们选取中国船舶、中国重工、中船防务、中国动力、亚星锚链、中国海防为分析对象。 ⚫船厂交付结构持续优化，利润改善明显 2024年船舶板块实现营收2103亿元，同比增长12%，受益于行业高景气与在手订单兑现，增速稳健。归母净利润72亿元， 同比增长103%，船厂交付结构中高价格、低成本的订单占比持续提升，前期包袱逐步出清，利润迎来向上拐点。展望未来， 船舶板块在手订单饱满，且高价船占比持续提升，收入仍有望持续增长，利润率将持续修复：（1）高价订单持续交付。 本轮周期船价自2021年开始回升，2021末-2024年末船价分别同比上涨22%/5%/10%/6%。中国船舶订单交付结构中高船价 比率逐年增长：2024-2026年交付订单中，2021年签单占比分别为65%/7%/0%，利润率有望持续提升。（2）原材料价格与 船价已形成剪刀差，助力 ...