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纯苯、苯乙烯日报:季节性扰动,芳烃震荡运行-20260213
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 13:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene's domestic overall operating rate is at a relatively low level, with a tightened supply but high port inventory. Downstream demand is generally recovering, and with the expected post - holiday demand restoration, the price may maintain a moderately strong oscillating pattern in February [2] - Styrene's domestic supply has not fully recovered in February, and demand has declined seasonally. There is inventory accumulation pressure, but post - holiday demand recovery is expected. Considering the improved valuation and high production profit, styrene may also operate in a moderately strong oscillating manner this month [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - On February 12, the styrene main contract closed down 0.59% at 7453 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.87% at 6071 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 64.6 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil was 69.4 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6060 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [2] - Pure benzene's East China port inventory was 30.5 tons (+0 tons), remaining unchanged. Styrene's East China port inventory was 10.9 tons (+0.8 tons), showing a slow inventory build - up. The overall change in pure benzene's downstream was small, with only the phenol operating rate slightly dropping to 86.0%. Styrene's downstream entered the off - season, with the operating rates of PS and ABS slightly decreasing, and EPS slightly increasing, resulting in a weakened overall hard - rubber operating rate [2] Views - Pure benzene: The overall operating rate of domestic pure benzene is at a relatively low level, with a tightened supply but high port inventory. Except for the weak operating rate of caprolactam, downstream demand is generally recovering, supporting the price. The insufficient demand for caprolactam restricts price increases. As the styrene price rises, its production profit is high, and the expected increase in styrene output may gradually reduce pure benzene's port inventory. Overall, the pure benzene industry chain is showing marginal improvement, and the price may maintain a moderately strong oscillating pattern in February [2] - Styrene: In February, domestic styrene supply has not fully recovered, and demand has declined seasonally, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. However, with the expected post - holiday demand recovery, there are expectations of inventory reduction. The current styrene valuation has recovered beyond expectations, and production profit is at a high level. Whether the high - profit situation can continue depends on marginal demand changes. If the downstream operating rate recovers smoothly after the holiday and the pure benzene fundamentals improve, it may support the styrene cost. Overall, in February, styrene may operate in a moderately strong oscillating manner [3] 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene - On February 12, compared with February 11, the styrene futures main - contract price decreased by 0.59%, the pure benzene futures main - contract price decreased by 0.87%, and the prices of pure benzene in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all increased [5] Production and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene - From January 30 to February 6, China's styrene production increased by 0.98% to 35.1 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 3.29% to 44.3 tons. Styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.95% to 10.9 tons, and pure benzene's national port inventory remained unchanged at 30.5 tons [6] Operating Rate - From January 30 to February 6, among the pure benzene downstream, the operating rates of styrene, aniline increased slightly, while the operating rates of caprolactam and phenol decreased slightly. Among the styrene downstream, the EPS operating rate increased, and the ABS and PS operating rates decreased [7] 3.3 Industry News - Ukraine reported that a bus in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was attacked by Russia, resulting in 15 deaths and 7 injuries - The US PPI in December increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% - The total number of US oil rigs this week was 411, the same as the previous value - Trump hinted that India would buy Venezuelan oil - Many places along the US southeastern coast were hit by the strongest snowstorms and storm surges in decades - The Iranian Foreign Minister expressed confidence in reaching a nuclear agreement with the US [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts showing the prices of pure benzene and styrene, the price difference between styrene and pure benzene, the cost comparison between imported and domestic pure benzene for SM, the inventory of styrene ports, factories, and ABS, the inventory of pure benzene ports, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][12][19][23][28]
芳烃日报:外盘情绪影响下高位回落-20260203
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 11:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The market should be treated with caution. Technically, there is still room for correction. Short - term attention should be paid to commodity sentiment and external market trends [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu Province fluctuated between 94,500 and 123,300 tons. The inventory at major ports in East China is still at a historically low level, and spot liquidity remains tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The Nanjing plant resumed production, and Guangxi Changke restarted, but Lianyungang Petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan each reduced one production line. The industry supply was temporarily stable, the total industry supply was stable, the market sales were average, and the inventory increased [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The manufacturer's supply was still very tight, mainly controlling the quantity of goods. After entering January, most of the goods were high - priced. After the Spring Festival, there were more inquiries in the market, the trading volume increased, and the price rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable month - on - month [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump said that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed. India is about to intervene and buy Venezuelan oil. Trump said over the weekend that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington, sending a signal of easing the situation with the OPEC member, causing a sharp drop in WTI crude oil [2] - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market stopped falling and rebounded during the day, but the strength was general. It is necessary to further observe the market sentiment and inventory changes. Overall, it should be treated with caution. Technically, there is still room for correction. Short - term attention should be paid to commodity sentiment and external market trends [3][4]
芳烃日报:苯乙烯超预期去库、纯苯历史级别高库存-20260113
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 11:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene has large supply - demand pressure, rebounds due to overall sentiment but with limited space, and should be treated with a continued oscillating mindset [4]. - Styrene is strong in the short - term due to the short - term rebound sentiment of overall commodities, export disturbances, and unexpected inventory reduction. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average on the daily K - line and low - buying opportunities. The late Spring Festival and downstream styrene benefits as well as pre - holiday procurement demand in the north have a positive impact on the market [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene factory output was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69% [1]. - From January 2nd to 8th, the consumption of styrene downstream products EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons [1]. - As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48%. As of January 12th, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 100,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.96% [1]. - As of January 12th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 250.79 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 660.46 yuan/ton [1]. - According to past industry rules, January - March is the off - season for styrene demand, with a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the time for seasonal production cut is late [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled, including multiple commodities such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium manganate, etc. [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis No relevant content provided.