BZ&EB周报：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 物流在春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | 需求 | • | 总体来看，纯苯下游维持高开工、高利润格局，关注春节之后新订单恢复情况。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：目前京博、玉皇等边际装置3月开车仍然有不确定性，重点关注边际检修的回归。 | | | • | 己内酰胺、己二酸：价格上涨，行业利润快速修复，PA6库存也快速去化，重点关注春节之后新订单的跟进情况。 | | | • | 苯酚：利润维持高位，开工也在持续回升。 | | | • | 苯胺：下游库存开始累库，重点关注节后新订单情况 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices. With the increase in the BZN spread and EB non - integrated plant profits, the overall valuation is moderately high. Amid the narrowing supply of pure benzene, styrene production continues to decline. As the seasonal off - peak season arrives, the profits of downstream three S products are at historically low levels, providing weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices [11]. - Valuation: Styrene has seen monthly declines (cost > futures > spot), with a strengthening basis, a strengthening BZN spread, and rising EB non - integrated plant profits [11]. - Cost: The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.21%, and the closing price of the active contract dropped by 0.96%. The basis fell by 12 yuan/ton, and pure benzene production reached its lowest level in the same period. Last month, China's pure benzene imports were 496770 tons, a 14.18% month - on - month increase and a 14.50% year - on - year increase, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 67.29%, a 0.85% month - on - month increase but a 3.73% year - on - year decrease and an 11.81% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in Q4 will increase month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and Export: Last month, EB imports were 33120 tons, a 34.31% month - on - month increase and a 58.24% year - on - year increase [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products was 42.34%, a 0.23% month - on - month increase. The PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 3.04% month - on - month increase but a 6.39% year - on - year decrease; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 2.70% month - on - month decrease but a 13.75% year - on - year increase; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.66% month - on - month decrease but a 3.46% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, the increase in the operating rate was lower than in previous years [11]. - Inventory: EB factory inventory was 19040 tons, a 2.36% month - on - month increase and a 48.54% year - on - year increase; EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16420 tons, a 14.92% month - on - month decrease but a 421.27% year - on - year increase. Pure benzene port inventory decreased significantly, but styrene port inventory remained at a high level [12]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for styrene (EB2601) is 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton; for pure benzene (BZ2603), it is 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton [12]. - Recommended Strategy: Hold short positions [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple graphs related to styrene, including spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [15][18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Styrene profits rebounded from a low level. The production process of styrene mainly consists of 85% ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% PO/SM co - production, and 3% C8 extraction [40][43]. - Inventory: The report shows graphs of pure benzene and styrene port inventories, as well as styrene factory inventories, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [33][36][37]. 3.4 Cost End - Production Plan: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311000 tons. There are differences in production capacity increases in each quarter [50]. - Price and Spread: The report presents graphs of pure benzene price spreads, import profits, and BZN spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [56][57][59]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of pure benzene showed a seasonal rebound. The profits of phenol and aniline continued to decline, with a moderately fluctuating operating rate. The profits of caprolactam recovered, and the factory inventory of caprolactam decreased significantly [63][71][84]. 3.5 Supply End - Production Increase: In Q4 2025, the supply of styrene will increase, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 242000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419800 tons [96][98][100]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of styrene continued to decline [106]. 3.6 Demand End - Profit: The profits of EPS and PS were at low levels in the same period. The operating rate of ABS decreased as profits declined [116][124]. - Downstream Products: The report also analyzed the production, sales, and inventory of household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, showing that the year - on - year production of washing machines was moderately high [135][143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is oscillating between anti - involution and crude oil fluctuations, with the industry's long - short situation remaining tense. The high - season high -开工 of styrene downstream fails to reduce the inventory in the styrene segment, and the inventory pressure of hard - rubber finished products and external warehouses is increasing. Pure benzene's four minor downstream sectors are starting to reduce their operating rates and enter a weakening off - season mode. Short - term market is mainly in a state of oscillation, while mid - term is bearish [3][76]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: From August to September, the average monthly maintenance loss is 60,000 tons. New device production is weak overall, with production pressure concentrated in August - September. The increment in August is 50,000 tons and 100,000 tons in September. Spot pressure of major refineries' pure benzene emerged in August [3][76]. - Import: August imports are low, resulting in low visible port inventory. September imports are expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and imports in the fourth quarter are expected to rise, with an expected 500,000 tons in October. External market still has large supply pressure [3][76]. Demand - Styrene: There were few maintenance works in August, and the devices are operating at high rates. From August to October, new styrene devices are concentrated for production, with a monthly average increment of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The inventory - swelling pressure in the entire styrene industry chain is prominent [3][76]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into production from August to September. Factories have increased their loads recently, but the finished - product inventories of CPL and PA6 are at high levels, and factories in Shandong and South China maintain high raw - material inventories [3][76]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. High - level production is maintained [3][76]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have restarted recently, and Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new device has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline's operating rate is close to the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI continues to increase its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short - term, which can absorb the increment of new pure - benzene production capacity [3][76]. - 3S hard - rubber downstream of styrene: In the peak season, it has high production, high inventory, and neutral profit. The core issue is how to solve the problem of high external - warehouse and factory physical inventories [3][76]. Market Outlook - The short - term market is mainly oscillating, and the mid - term is bearish. The valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton based on a crude - oil price of $65 per barrel. With the expected weakening of crude oil, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton when the crude - oil price is $60 [3][76]. 3.2 Styrene Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has high inventory, neutral profit, and high production. From August to October, new devices are concentrated for production, with a monthly average increment of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The inventory - swelling pressure in the entire industry chain is prominent [3][48][76]. Downstream Market - ABS: Production continues to expand. Its production enterprises' equity inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and production are at certain levels, and the production profit in the East - China region shows certain fluctuations [63][64]. - PS: Its production capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory are at certain levels, and the production profit also shows certain fluctuations [65][66]. - EPS: Its production capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory are at certain levels, and the production profit in the East - China region shows certain fluctuations [70][74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, styrene lacked unilateral driving factors, and the futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the EB2509 contract closed at 7,235 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, a new 670,000 - ton Jingbo plant was put into operation, and the operating loads of some plants were adjusted. This week, styrene production decreased by 0.64% month - on - month to 359,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.19% month - on - month to 77.73% [7]. - On the demand side, the operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently this week. The EPS operating rate decreased by 10.58% month - on - month to 43.67%, the PS operating rate increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 55%, the ABS operating rate increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 71.1%, the UPR operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month to 30%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month to 73.35% [7]. - In terms of inventory, this week, styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.71% month - on - month to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% month - on - month to 159,000 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 4.73% month - on - month to 15,500 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, this week, the average spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased slightly, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, the non - integrated cost of styrene dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, and due to the weak styrene spot, the non - integrated profit of styrene dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Looking ahead, next week, the output of the new Jingbo plant will increase, and the impact of restarted plants in Northeast and North China will expand. Production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month. The non - integrated profit has fallen to a loss level, and in the long - term, the high - operating state of plants may be difficult to sustain. Recently, the EPS plants under centralized maintenance are about to restart, and some PS and ABS plants plan to increase production. Short - term demand is expected to increase. However, the poor demand in downstream industries and the expectation of finished product inventory accumulation may suppress the growth of styrene demand. Styrene supply and demand will both increase, but overall, the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, the demand in the US fuel peak season still exists, and a meeting between the US and Russian presidents is upcoming. International oil prices are expected to oscillate. The premium or discount of the EB2509 contract is not large, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton, closing at 7,235 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.84% from last week [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side: New plant put into operation, production decreased by 0.64% to 359,200 tons, capacity utilization decreased by 1.19% to 77.73%. Demand - side: Downstream operating rates changed differently. Inventory: Factory inventory decreased by 2.71% to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% to 159,000 tons, South China port inventory increased by 4.73% to 15,500 tons. Cost: Non - integrated cost dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, non - integrated profit dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. Short - term demand may increase, but overall supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure may rise. International oil prices are expected to oscillate, and the EB2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The EB futures main contract oscillated in a range, new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The 09 contract's position - changing is about to start, and the position volume decreased. The 09 - 10 spread oscillated slightly [8][12]. - Spot Market: The spot price fluctuated in a range, and the futures price had a slight premium [16]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - Upstream: Ethylene price fluctuated slightly, East China pure benzene price rebounded after a decline. In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month [22][26]. - Supply: In July, there was no new styrene production capacity. Production was 1.6011 million tons, up 5.83% month - on - month and 22.96% year - on - year. The production capacity base increased, but the operating rate decreased month - on - month [32][36]. - Demand: EPS, PS, and ABS prices dropped slightly. Downstream operating rates changed differently. This week, the EPS operating rate decreased, while the PS, ABS, and UPR operating rates increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [39][44][48][53]. - Import and Export: In June, styrene imports were 21,400 tons, up month - on - month and year - on - year; exports were 14,500 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - Inventory: Port inventory was 174,500 tons, factory inventory was 211,500 tons. East China port inventory was 159,000 tons, South China port inventory was 15,500 tons [61][65]. - Cost and Profit: Non - integrated cost decreased, and process losses increased. Import profit continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [69][73]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the styrene main contract was reported at 18.88%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options was around 18.53% [77].