Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Driven by the rise in international oil prices, BZ2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 5,907 yuan/ton. Last week, two new petrobenzene plants were shut down, and some hydrobenzene plants restarted. Overall, the domestic pure benzene supply decreased week-on-week. The aniline开工率 increased significantly last week, and the开工 rates of caprolactam and phenol increased week-on-week, while the开工 rates of styrene and adipic acid decreased week-on-week. Overall, the weighted downstream开工率 increased slightly. The arrival volume of ships at ports decreased, and the提货 volume increased, leading to a week-on-week decrease in pure benzene port inventory. This week, some petrobenzene and hydrobenzene plants are expected to restart, and the arrival quantity of imported goods is expected to increase, so the pure benzene supply is expected to rise week-on-week. The five major downstream plants have the expectation of increasing production, which may drive short-term demand up. However, in the medium and long term, large-scale styrene production capacity is in the rotation maintenance cycle, which limits the room for pure benzene demand to increase. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises increases, which may support the pure benzene price to some extent. In terms of cost, the global crude oil supply and demand are weak, but the US sanctions against some oil-producing countries may be upgraded, and the international oil price rose significantly yesterday. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate with the oil price. Technically, pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 5,850 and the pressure of the 10-day moving average around 5,985 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,907 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the settlement price was 5,910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The trading volume was 5,133 lots, down 928 lots; the open interest was 12,986 lots, down 480 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5,840 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,947 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6,050 yuan/ton and 5,740 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB mid-price of pure benzene in South Korea was 705 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR mid-price of pure benzene in China was 722.5 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.6 US dollars/barrel, up 1.69 US dollars; the CFR mid-price of naphtha in Japan was 597.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.87 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 450,100 tons, down 5,400 tons. The port inventory was 134,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.44%, down 1.54 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the capacity utilization rate of petrobenzene in China decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 78.35% week-on-week, and the capacity utilization rate of hydrobenzene increased by 5.35 percentage points to 59.94% week-on-week. The weighted downstream开工率 of pure benzene increased by 0.74 percentage points to 74.29% week-on-week. As of September 22nd, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 107,000 tons, down 20.15% week-on-week. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of petrobenzene decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton week-on-week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is oscillating between anti - involution and crude oil fluctuations, with the industry's long - short situation remaining tense. The high - season high -开工 of styrene downstream fails to reduce the inventory in the styrene segment, and the inventory pressure of hard - rubber finished products and external warehouses is increasing. Pure benzene's four minor downstream sectors are starting to reduce their operating rates and enter a weakening off - season mode. Short - term market is mainly in a state of oscillation, while mid - term is bearish [3][76]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: From August to September, the average monthly maintenance loss is 60,000 tons. New device production is weak overall, with production pressure concentrated in August - September. The increment in August is 50,000 tons and 100,000 tons in September. Spot pressure of major refineries' pure benzene emerged in August [3][76]. - Import: August imports are low, resulting in low visible port inventory. September imports are expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and imports in the fourth quarter are expected to rise, with an expected 500,000 tons in October. External market still has large supply pressure [3][76]. Demand - Styrene: There were few maintenance works in August, and the devices are operating at high rates. From August to October, new styrene devices are concentrated for production, with a monthly average increment of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The inventory - swelling pressure in the entire styrene industry chain is prominent [3][76]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into production from August to September. Factories have increased their loads recently, but the finished - product inventories of CPL and PA6 are at high levels, and factories in Shandong and South China maintain high raw - material inventories [3][76]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. High - level production is maintained [3][76]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have restarted recently, and Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new device has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline's operating rate is close to the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI continues to increase its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short - term, which can absorb the increment of new pure - benzene production capacity [3][76]. - 3S hard - rubber downstream of styrene: In the peak season, it has high production, high inventory, and neutral profit. The core issue is how to solve the problem of high external - warehouse and factory physical inventories [3][76]. Market Outlook - The short - term market is mainly oscillating, and the mid - term is bearish. The valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton based on a crude - oil price of $65 per barrel. With the expected weakening of crude oil, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton when the crude - oil price is $60 [3][76]. 3.2 Styrene Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has high inventory, neutral profit, and high production. From August to October, new devices are concentrated for production, with a monthly average increment of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The inventory - swelling pressure in the entire industry chain is prominent [3][48][76]. Downstream Market - ABS: Production continues to expand. Its production enterprises' equity inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and production are at certain levels, and the production profit in the East - China region shows certain fluctuations [63][64]. - PS: Its production capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory are at certain levels, and the production profit also shows certain fluctuations [65][66]. - EPS: Its production capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory are at certain levels, and the production profit in the East - China region shows certain fluctuations [70][74][75].