BZ&EB周报：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 物流在春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | 需求 | • | 总体来看，纯苯下游维持高开工、高利润格局，关注春节之后新订单恢复情况。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：目前京博、玉皇等边际装置3月开车仍然有不确定性，重点关注边际检修的回归。 | | | • | 己内酰胺、己二酸：价格上涨，行业利润快速修复，PA6库存也快速去化，重点关注春节之后新订单的跟进情况。 | | | • | 苯酚：利润维持高位，开工也在持续回升。 | | | • | 苯胺：下游库存开始累库，重点关注节后新订单情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month-on-month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month-on-month. The domestic pure benzene output increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high-level upward trend. In terms of profit, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - In January, two sets of equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be under maintenance, and equipment such as Funeng Jiahua, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical will be restarted one after another. A new device of Guangdong BASF is planned to be put into production, and the domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale downstream styrene equipment is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; a small amount of equipment for caprolactam will resume, and the overall operating rate is expected to change little; some maintenance equipment for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid is planned to be restarted. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and the supply pressure of international crude oil in the real - world remains. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side: last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month - on - month, with domestic pure benzene output rising slightly. Demand - side: the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month - on - month. Inventory: the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high - level upward trend. Profit: the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - **Outlook**: In January, domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of downstream products is expected to remain stable or change little. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range, and the spot price in East China rose slightly, reaching 5345 yuan/ton on December 31 [8]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in North China was 5170 yuan/ton, and in South China was 5300 yuan/ton [15]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in Northeast China was 5210 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrobenzene in Shanxi was 5040 yuan/ton [20]. - On December 29, the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 664 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price of pure benzene in China was 672 US dollars/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation - Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased month - on - month [30]. - In November, 459,600 tons of pure benzene were imported. This week, the import profit fluctuated slightly, and the import window was semi - open [36]. - This week, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively high [42]. - This week, the production cost of petroleum benzene decreased, and the profit recovered. Last week, the production cost of hydrobenzene decreased month - on - month, and the profit recovered [45][50]. - The operating rate of styrene increased month - on - month, and the non - integrated profit increased. The operating rate of caprolactam increased, and the profit decreased. The operating rate of the phenol industry was 78.15%. The operating rate of the aniline industry was 62.98%. The operating rate of the adipic acid industry was 63.6% [55][60][63]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the pure benzene main contract was reported at 11.57%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 19.2% [76].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices. With the increase in the BZN spread and EB non - integrated plant profits, the overall valuation is moderately high. Amid the narrowing supply of pure benzene, styrene production continues to decline. As the seasonal off - peak season arrives, the profits of downstream three S products are at historically low levels, providing weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices [11]. - Valuation: Styrene has seen monthly declines (cost > futures > spot), with a strengthening basis, a strengthening BZN spread, and rising EB non - integrated plant profits [11]. - Cost: The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.21%, and the closing price of the active contract dropped by 0.96%. The basis fell by 12 yuan/ton, and pure benzene production reached its lowest level in the same period. Last month, China's pure benzene imports were 496770 tons, a 14.18% month - on - month increase and a 14.50% year - on - year increase, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 67.29%, a 0.85% month - on - month increase but a 3.73% year - on - year decrease and an 11.81% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in Q4 will increase month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and Export: Last month, EB imports were 33120 tons, a 34.31% month - on - month increase and a 58.24% year - on - year increase [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products was 42.34%, a 0.23% month - on - month increase. The PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 3.04% month - on - month increase but a 6.39% year - on - year decrease; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 2.70% month - on - month decrease but a 13.75% year - on - year increase; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.66% month - on - month decrease but a 3.46% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, the increase in the operating rate was lower than in previous years [11]. - Inventory: EB factory inventory was 19040 tons, a 2.36% month - on - month increase and a 48.54% year - on - year increase; EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16420 tons, a 14.92% month - on - month decrease but a 421.27% year - on - year increase. Pure benzene port inventory decreased significantly, but styrene port inventory remained at a high level [12]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for styrene (EB2601) is 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton; for pure benzene (BZ2603), it is 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton [12]. - Recommended Strategy: Hold short positions [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple graphs related to styrene, including spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [15][18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Styrene profits rebounded from a low level. The production process of styrene mainly consists of 85% ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% PO/SM co - production, and 3% C8 extraction [40][43]. - Inventory: The report shows graphs of pure benzene and styrene port inventories, as well as styrene factory inventories, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [33][36][37]. 3.4 Cost End - Production Plan: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311000 tons. There are differences in production capacity increases in each quarter [50]. - Price and Spread: The report presents graphs of pure benzene price spreads, import profits, and BZN spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [56][57][59]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of pure benzene showed a seasonal rebound. The profits of phenol and aniline continued to decline, with a moderately fluctuating operating rate. The profits of caprolactam recovered, and the factory inventory of caprolactam decreased significantly [63][71][84]. 3.5 Supply End - Production Increase: In Q4 2025, the supply of styrene will increase, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 242000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419800 tons [96][98][100]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of styrene continued to decline [106]. 3.6 Demand End - Profit: The profits of EPS and PS were at low levels in the same period. The operating rate of ABS decreased as profits declined [116][124]. - Downstream Products: The report also analyzed the production, sales, and inventory of household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, showing that the year - on - year production of washing machines was moderately high [135][143].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Driven by the rise in international oil prices, BZ2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 5,907 yuan/ton. Last week, two new petrobenzene plants were shut down, and some hydrobenzene plants restarted. Overall, the domestic pure benzene supply decreased week-on-week. The aniline开工率 increased significantly last week, and the开工 rates of caprolactam and phenol increased week-on-week, while the开工 rates of styrene and adipic acid decreased week-on-week. Overall, the weighted downstream开工率 increased slightly. The arrival volume of ships at ports decreased, and the提货 volume increased, leading to a week-on-week decrease in pure benzene port inventory. This week, some petrobenzene and hydrobenzene plants are expected to restart, and the arrival quantity of imported goods is expected to increase, so the pure benzene supply is expected to rise week-on-week. The five major downstream plants have the expectation of increasing production, which may drive short-term demand up. However, in the medium and long term, large-scale styrene production capacity is in the rotation maintenance cycle, which limits the room for pure benzene demand to increase. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises increases, which may support the pure benzene price to some extent. In terms of cost, the global crude oil supply and demand are weak, but the US sanctions against some oil-producing countries may be upgraded, and the international oil price rose significantly yesterday. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate with the oil price. Technically, pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 5,850 and the pressure of the 10-day moving average around 5,985 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,907 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the settlement price was 5,910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The trading volume was 5,133 lots, down 928 lots; the open interest was 12,986 lots, down 480 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5,840 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,947 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6,050 yuan/ton and 5,740 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB mid-price of pure benzene in South Korea was 705 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR mid-price of pure benzene in China was 722.5 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.6 US dollars/barrel, up 1.69 US dollars; the CFR mid-price of naphtha in Japan was 597.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.87 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 450,100 tons, down 5,400 tons. The port inventory was 134,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.44%, down 1.54 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the capacity utilization rate of petrobenzene in China decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 78.35% week-on-week, and the capacity utilization rate of hydrobenzene increased by 5.35 percentage points to 59.94% week-on-week. The weighted downstream开工率 of pure benzene increased by 0.74 percentage points to 74.29% week-on-week. As of September 22nd, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 107,000 tons, down 20.15% week-on-week. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of petrobenzene decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton week-on-week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is oscillating between anti - involution and crude oil fluctuations, with the industry's long - short situation remaining tense. The high - season high -开工 of styrene downstream fails to reduce the inventory in the styrene segment, and the inventory pressure of hard - rubber finished products and external warehouses is increasing. Pure benzene's four minor downstream sectors are starting to reduce their operating rates and enter a weakening off - season mode. Short - term market is mainly in a state of oscillation, while mid - term is bearish [3][76]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: From August to September, the average monthly maintenance loss is 60,000 tons. New device production is weak overall, with production pressure concentrated in August - September. The increment in August is 50,000 tons and 100,000 tons in September. Spot pressure of major refineries' pure benzene emerged in August [3][76]. - Import: August imports are low, resulting in low visible port inventory. September imports are expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and imports in the fourth quarter are expected to rise, with an expected 500,000 tons in October. External market still has large supply pressure [3][76]. Demand - Styrene: There were few maintenance works in August, and the devices are operating at high rates. From August to October, new styrene devices are concentrated for production, with a monthly average increment of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The inventory - swelling pressure in the entire styrene industry chain is prominent [3][76]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into production from August to September. Factories have increased their loads recently, but the finished - product inventories of CPL and PA6 are at high levels, and factories in Shandong and South China maintain high raw - material inventories [3][76]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. High - level production is maintained [3][76]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have restarted recently, and Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new device has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline's operating rate is close to the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI continues to increase its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short - term, which can absorb the increment of new pure - benzene production capacity [3][76]. - 3S hard - rubber downstream of styrene: In the peak season, it has high production, high inventory, and neutral profit. The core issue is how to solve the problem of high external - warehouse and factory physical inventories [3][76]. Market Outlook - The short - term market is mainly oscillating, and the mid - term is bearish. The valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton based on a crude - oil price of $65 per barrel. With the expected weakening of crude oil, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton when the crude - oil price is $60 [3][76]. 3.2 Styrene Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has high inventory, neutral profit, and high production. From August to October, new devices are concentrated for production, with a monthly average increment of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The inventory - swelling pressure in the entire industry chain is prominent [3][48][76]. Downstream Market - ABS: Production continues to expand. Its production enterprises' equity inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and production are at certain levels, and the production profit in the East - China region shows certain fluctuations [63][64]. - PS: Its production capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory are at certain levels, and the production profit also shows certain fluctuations [65][66]. - EPS: Its production capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory are at certain levels, and the production profit in the East - China region shows certain fluctuations [70][74][75].