Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Report's Core View - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing certain support at the lower end. It is recommended to take short - long positions as the main strategy [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 713 yuan; the main contract position is 93,887 lots, an increase of 10,714 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 352 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the weekly capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82%; the weekly capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 69.739 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 645.5 million US dollars, a decrease of 153.3065 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 20.2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.12%, an increase of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.12%, an increase of 0.58% [2] Industry News - In the western production area, there is little remaining stock of early - maturing Fuji apples, with poor quality, and transactions are priced according to quality. The transactions of Red Star and Huaniu apples are in progress, and the transaction prices are acceptable. In the Shandong production area, the supply of Red General apples has decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm of buyers is okay, with transactions through bargaining. The remaining stock of local stored Fuji apples has slightly poor quality, and the sales are slow, with the market price under pressure. For the new - season apples, the transaction price of Red General apples in Shandong varies widely due to quality, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious. The transactions of early - maturing Fuji apples in the western region are coming to an end, and the picking - green Fuji apples are waiting to color, with a small number of merchants starting to place orders at a price higher than the same period last year. The preparations for the Double Festival are progressing, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji apples is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may delay the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji apples [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the transactions of medium - maturing varieties, the sales speed of the stored apples in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The inventory - removal speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down, and local small merchants tend to choose Red General apples with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of farmers' goods is weak. However, the market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing certain support at the lower end [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - Apple: The price of apple futures rose yesterday with active trading in the early-ripening Fuji market. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. The overall de-stocking speed of stored apples is still average, and the short-term market is expected to run stably [1][2][3] - Red dates: The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. The prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high-level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new-season jujube fruits and the demand for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton or 1.50% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi-commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,225 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed higher. The early-ripening Fuji market had active transactions. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. Last week, there were prominent quality problems with early-ripening Gala in the western region, such as poor coloring and small fruit size. The prices of high-quality goods were significantly higher than those of the same period last year, and the profit of some merchants purchasing high-quality Gala was low. The cold storage inventory in the Shandong production area was mainly for the rigid demand replenishment of merchants, and the price of the stored goods continued to decline. The early-ripening varieties in the Shandong production area, such as Luli, Jindu Red, Huashuo, and Meiba, were gradually listed for trading, with a small overall volume, and the prices followed the expected pattern of high opening and low closing. The remaining inventory of apples in the Shaanxi production area was limited and gradually entered the later stage. Affected by the quality of early-ripening apples, merchants turned to the stored goods in the warehouse, and the price of high-quality stored goods increased. In the sales area market, the wholesale price was stable with obvious polarization. After the early-ripening apples were listed, the number of trucks arriving at the market increased slightly compared with the previous off-season, still mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early-ripening Gala. The sales of early-ripening apples were okay, but the profit of merchants was average, the terminal sales speed was not fast, the digestion speed of high-quality goods was okay, and the digestion of poor-quality goods was slow [1][2] Red dates - The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. In the 2024 production season, the production of red dates was large with high inventory but poor quality. The de-stocking slope of the inventory of 36 sample points was gentler compared to recent years. There is an over - exhaustion problem with the new-season jujube trees, and the estimated new-season production is 56 - 62 tons, with a strong expectation of a reduction. After entering the sugar - increasing period, the growth situation has not shown unexpected changes. The spot price in the sales area market is firm, but the trading volume has decreased, and the demand shows signs of weakness with light trading. Therefore, the prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high - level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new - season jujube fruits. If the subsequent dynamic production assessment is lower than the current expectation, the upward trend of red dates may continue. At the same time, attention should be paid to the demand for Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7] Strategies - Apple: Maintain a neutral stance. Although the sales of stored apples have improved, the overall de - stocking speed is still average. The short - term market is expected to run stably [3] - Red dates: Maintain a neutral stance. Without disproving the reduction in production, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, due to the continuously high inventory of old dates, attention should be paid to the final production of new dates. If the reduction amplitude is less than expected, the red date price may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 3.63% this week. The preliminary estimate of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons from last week. The supply of early - maturing apples increased last week, affecting the inventory clearance speed [6]. - The trading of paper - bag Gala apples in the western producing areas has basically ended, and the overall quality of early - maturing apples is poor. The market is worried that late - maturing Fuji apples may also have the same problem. Due to concerns about the high - quality fruit rate, the expected opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples is high. With low inventory of old apples, high expected opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and expected demand for the Mid - Autumn Festival, the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and set stop - losses [6]. - Future trading factors to watch include inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 3.63% this week [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase by 2.35%. Cold - storage inventory decreased. Early - maturing apple quality is poor, leading to high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 3.63% this week. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 6863 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 0 [6][9][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per jin; the price of bagged 75 above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [19]. 3.3 Industry and Option Situation - **Supply Side**: As of August 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization rates in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased [24]. - **Demand Side**: - As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan per jin [28]. - As of August 22, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.5 yuan per kg, a 0.21% increase; the wholesale price of apples was 9.74 yuan per kg, an 0.83% increase [33]. - As of August 22, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.87 yuan per kg, a 1.01% decrease [37]. - In July 2023, the export volume of fresh apples was 5 million tons, a 25% increase from the previous month [40]. - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the form of a graph [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable is presented in the form of a graph [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views - Apple: With low remaining inventory in production areas and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year, the apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. The market is concerned about the growth of late - maturing Fuji due to the poor quality of early - maturing apples [1][2][3]. - Red dates: Since new jujubes entered the critical flowering and fruit - setting period in June, the market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season production cut. There is a large divergence in the expected new - season output. The market is sensitive to weather changes in production areas. The short - term price may rise due to capital sentiment, but if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak under high inventory pressure [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8414 yuan/ton, up 136 yuan/ton (+1.64%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - maturing Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 semi - commercial late - maturing Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 914 in Shandong and AP10 + 586 in Shaanxi both decreased by 136 from the previous day [1]. - Market information: In Shaanxi, early - maturing paper - bag Gala is in the middle - late stage, with a low proportion of good - quality fruits and a polarized price. In Shandong, varieties like Luli, Jinduhong, and Cream Huashuo are being traded in small quantities, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is okay. The market for stored Fuji apples is stable and dull, with some farmers and holders starting to sell at discounted prices [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. Due to the low proportion of good - quality Gala in the western production areas and the general quality of Shaanxi Gala, concerns about the quality of late - maturing Fuji have increased. The early - maturing fruit market shows a polarized trend, and the stored fruit market is weak. With the low inventory level, the price of stored fruit is supported. The supply of early - maturing apples in northern Shaanxi and Gansu this week may further squeeze the market for stored fruit. It is expected that the price of stored fruit will remain weak in the short term [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Given the low inventory and little change in the expected new - season output, the short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11470 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1870 decreased by 110 from the previous day [4]. - Market information: In Xinjiang, gray jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and weather prevention is crucial. In the Hebei Cui'erzhuang market, 3 trucks of red dates and 4 trucks of walnuts arrived. The price of walnuts decreased to 20.00 yuan/kg. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 3 trucks of red dates arrived, and the morning trading was average [4][5]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales areas has decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market is general, showing a weak - balance pattern. The inventory at sample points has decreased, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down. In the production areas, the fruit - setting of the first - batch flowers in some orchards was average, but the second - and third - batch flowers had better fruit - setting due to temperature drops and rainfall in early July. In August, strong winds in some areas caused some fruit drops. In the sales areas, the spot price is strong, and the trading atmosphere has improved [6]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The price may rise in the short term due to capital sentiment when the production cut cannot be disproven. However, considering the high inventory of old jujubes, if the production cut is less than expected, the price may turn weak [7].

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with a notable price disparity between old and new season apples, influenced by various factors including supply, demand, and seasonal fruit competition [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the latest close, the main contract for apple futures (AP2510) is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-season Fuji apples [1]. - The old season apples, particularly in Shandong, are facing weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with a weighted price of 3.73 yuan/jin for grade 80 and above, down 9.90% from early July [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of early-season apples, particularly the paper bag Gala variety, is significantly higher than the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 0.3 to 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. - In Gansu's Jingning region, the starting price for paper bag Gala apples is between 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is about 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. - The price expectations for late-season Fuji apples are rising, with anticipated opening prices potentially exceeding last year's by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [6]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant yield and lower prices compared to previous years [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing market dynamics [2][6]. - Weather conditions have impacted apple quality, with issues such as insufficient color and smaller fruit sizes affecting early-season apples, leading to higher demand for new season apples [5][6].