Industry Overview - The domestic tea and coffee market is undergoing continuous reshuffling, with leading brands accelerating their scale competition [2] - In October, 27 monitored coffee brands opened 3,341 new stores, a month-on-month decrease of 10.31% but a year-on-year increase of 94.47%, totaling 81,000 stores [2] - The tea beverage sector saw 30 monitored brands with a total of 133,800 stores, netting a growth of 186 stores in October, a month-on-month increase of 0.14% [2] Expansion and Challenges - Despite expansion, concerns are emerging as brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea closed 804 stores, followed by Sweet Lala with 341 closures [3] - Other brands such as Shuyi Burned Grass and Bawang Tea Sister also reported significant closures, indicating potential challenges in maintaining store profitability [3] Product Innovations - Tea brands are increasingly launching new sugar water products, with Gu Ming introducing a slow-cooked series and CoCo also launching a new sugar water bowl [4] - The advantages of tea shops venturing into sugar water include overlapping customer demographics and core ingredients, which help reduce material pressure [4] Marketing Collaborations - CoCo has partnered with the game "Ming Chao," while Tims Coffee collaborates with Avita Motors, showcasing a trend of innovative cross-industry marketing [5] - Notable product performances include Mixue Ice Cream's "Ice Fresh Lemonade" selling over 1.5 billion cups in ten months, indicating strong consumer demand [5] Leadership Changes - Eric Lauterbach, CEO of Piye Coffee, has announced his departure, with Stuart Heflin set to take over, bringing over 20 years of experience in global consumer brands [6] Financial Developments - Manner Coffee is reportedly considering an IPO in Hong Kong by 2026, while Luckin Coffee is monitoring the U.S. capital market for a potential return to the main board [7] - Luckin Coffee reported Q3 2025 revenue of 15.287 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%, with a total of 29,214 stores after opening 3,008 new locations [8] - Starbucks is facing a collective lawsuit from shareholders for allegedly concealing sales declines, highlighting operational risks in the fast-growing industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - The brand "爷爷不泡茶" has rapidly expanded its store network, aiming to reach 4,500 stores by the end of 2024, with a current total of 2,410 stores as of October 8, 2025, reflecting a 6.7% increase from the previous year [2][3][5]. Expansion Strategy - The brand plans to add at least 2,090 new stores in the remaining two months of the year, which requires a daily opening rate of 38 stores, significantly higher than the current rate of 5 stores per day [5]. - As of October 8, 2025, the brand has opened 172 new stores in 107 cities, with 43 of these in new first-tier cities, indicating a strategic focus on urban expansion [3][5]. Store Operations - The majority of stores operate from 10:00 AM to 10:00 PM, with a notable number of campus stores adjusting hours to cater to student schedules, enhancing consumer engagement [6][8]. - The brand has 83 24-hour stores, primarily located in new first-tier cities, indicating a focus on high-traffic areas [8][10]. Geographic Distribution - The brand's stores are concentrated in central, eastern, and southern China, with significant presence in Hubei, Jiangsu, and Guangdong provinces [16][19][21]. - The strategy includes a "province capital first" approach, with major cities like Hangzhou and Nanjing having a disproportionately high number of stores compared to other cities in their respective provinces [32][35]. Market Penetration - The brand has established a presence in 1,401 stores across first, second, and new first-tier cities, which constitutes 58.13% of its total stores, showing a strong foothold in economically robust areas [29]. - The brand has also begun penetrating lower-tier cities, with 1,009 stores in third-tier and below cities, indicating a strategy to tap into emerging markets [35]. Commercial Partnerships - The brand has a significant presence in shopping centers, with 1,116 stores located in such venues, which account for 46.31% of its total stores, enhancing brand visibility and customer traffic [37][39]. - The brand's partnership with Wanda Plaza is particularly noteworthy, with 251 stores, representing 10.4% of its total, indicating a strong alignment with high-traffic commercial properties [39][41]. Special Location Strategy - The brand has opened 132 special location stores, focusing on high-frequency consumer areas such as campuses and transportation hubs, with 97 of these being campus stores [45][47]. - The transportation hub stores, primarily located in metro stations, reflect the brand's strategy to enhance visibility in high-traffic areas [47]. Financial Performance - The brand's reliance on aggressive promotional strategies has led to a lower revenue realization rate of approximately 60%, compared to competitors who maintain higher rates [49]. - As the tea-drinking season slows, the brand may need to increase marketing efforts to sustain customer traffic, which could further impact profitability [49][50].

文丨徐煜萌 编辑丨钱杨 《晚点 LatePost》获悉，霸王茶姬今年净利润预计超过 20 亿元。去年，这一数字是 8 亿多元。据一位接 近茶颜悦色的人士，茶颜悦色去年净利润超过 6 亿元，今年净利润略高于去年。据喜茶投资方，喜茶今年 净利润约 6 亿-8 亿元。 "茶饮最好的五年过去了。" 四年前，霸王茶姬将总部从昆明迁向成都，后逐步开放加盟。今年增长也主要来自门店扩张。霸王茶姬去年 底门店数为 3511 家，近日突破 6000 家，排进茶饮品牌前五。 仍坚持全部直营的茶颜悦色，门店数从去年底的 500 多家增加至现在的 710 家，目前在古风景点密集的南京 已有近 50 家。门店数量增长没有带来等比例的利润增长。 我们从业内了解到，喜茶今年二季度同店销售额下滑 30%。下滑一定程度受到疫情开放带来的高基数和前年 底开放加盟的影响。 多位市场人士估计，霸王茶姬今年同店下滑 30% 以上。在快速扩张带来的利润飙升之下，我们访谈的几位不 同城市加盟商说，他们的霸王茶姬门店销售额不及去年同期六成。 行业整体同店下滑是奶茶店加密和价格战等原因共同导致。 "2019 年到 2023 年很热闹，" 一位投行人士对我们说， ...