Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on all brand-name drugs starting in October is expected to have limited impact on the Chinese innovative drug industry chain, according to research from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The new tariff policy does not apply to generic drugs, biosimilars, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [1] - Most Chinese innovative drugs that are exported either have production capacity built in the U.S. or are outsourced to local Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs) [1] - The majority of exported products are APIs or raw herbal extracts, which are not affected by the new tariff, while the proportion of finished dosage forms exported is low [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The direct impact on CXO orders is limited in the short term, but changes in policy could affect the pace of factory construction by multinational corporations (MNCs) in the long term [1] - Upcoming catalysts include the ESMO conference scheduled for mid to late October and the results of medical insurance negotiations along with the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog expected to be released in October-November [1]

消息面上，特朗普近期宣布，10月起对所有品牌/专利药征收100%关税，除非该制造商正在美国境内兴 建生产设施。此关税政策不适用于仿制药、生物相似药及原料药/API等中间体。交银国际认为，这对中 国创新药产业链影响有限，无需过度担忧。 该行指出，当前自主出海品种多在美自建产能或已将生产外包给美国本土CMO，而大部分国产创新药 出海采用BD模式；出口产品以原料药/生药原液为主，暂不受影响，制剂/成品药出口比例较低，下游 MNC客户投资建厂尚需时日，短期内对CXO订单直接冲击有限，长期来看政策变动也可能影响其建厂 节奏。后续催化剂包括：ESMO大会将于10月中下旬举行；医保谈判结果及第一版商保创新药目录将于 10-11月公布。 智通财经APP获悉，医药股表现强势，截至发稿，和铂医药-B(02142)涨8.2%，报15.71港元；再鼎医药 (09688)涨6.83%，报26.6港元；诺诚健华(09969)涨6.61%，报18.87港元；药明康德(02359)涨5.37%，报 115.7港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump to impose a 100% tariff on all imported brand-name or patented drugs starting October 1 has caused significant upheaval in the pharmaceutical supply chain, leading to protests from European pharmaceutical giants and concerns over rising drug prices in the U.S. [1][2] Tariff Policy Impact - The new tariff policy adds complexity to an already intricate pharmaceutical supply chain, with experts urging the White House for clearer details [2] - The 100% tariff applies to imported brand-name drugs, but companies with existing or planned manufacturing facilities in the U.S. may be exempt [2] - The exclusion of generic drugs from the tariff is notable, as they constitute a significant portion of U.S. prescription drug sales [2][3] Economic Implications - U.S. pharmaceutical imports are projected to reach approximately $213 billion in 2024, tripling over the past decade, with over 20% coming from Asia [3] - The new tariffs may lead to increased drug prices for U.S. consumers, as the average spending on prescription drugs is already about twice that of other developed countries [3] - Pharmaceutical companies warn that the tariffs could hinder drug development and raise prices [3] Concerns from Small and Generic Drug Manufacturers - Smaller pharmaceutical companies producing niche drugs may face significant challenges, as they might not afford to relocate production to the U.S. [3] - The potential for supply disruptions exists, particularly for patented drugs that lack alternatives [3] Indian Generic Drug Industry - Indian pharmaceutical companies are currently not directly affected by the tariffs on generic drugs, but there are concerns about future expansions of the tariff scope [4][5] - India supplies over one-third of the U.S. pharmaceutical market, with exports projected to reach $27.9 billion in the 2024 fiscal year [5][6] European Pharmaceutical Industry Response - The European pharmaceutical sector has expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, warning of increased production costs and potential disruptions to international supply chains [7][8] - Germany's pharmaceutical industry heavily relies on the U.S. market, with exports valued at €27 billion in 2024, making the new tariffs particularly concerning [7] - Some companies are taking proactive measures, such as Bayer's commitment to constructive cooperation with the U.S. government [8] Risk of Drug Shortages and Price Increases - The tariffs could exacerbate existing drug shortages in Europe, with reports indicating that around 450 drugs are currently out of stock in Germany [9] - Companies may consider raising prices in European markets to offset losses from the U.S. market, as seen with Sanofi and Eli Lilly [9]

摩根大通发表研究报告指，日前参与药明康德2025年投资者日，适逢美国总统特朗普宣布计划自10月1 日起对进口品牌药及专利药征收100%关税，除非相关药厂已在美国动工兴建生产设施。摩通预期今次 药品关税政策对药明康德等中国CDMO企业不会构成直接影响，因客户通常负责支付关税，而且药明康 德正在扩充其美国产能，以满足客户对本地化生产的需求。 摩通继续列药明康德为中国CXO行业的首选股，指出该公司是中国收入规模最大的合同研究开发与生 产组织，看好其业务基本面，认为小分子CRDMO领域竞争相对温和，同时药明TIDES业务增长动力持 续强劲，维持"增持"评级，目标价138港元。 ...

本文来自微信公众号：每日经济新闻 （ID：nbdnews），作者：林姿辰，校对：魏文艺，原文标题： 《特朗普宣布：加征100%关税！业内：对中国企业没什么影响，"欧洲受影响较大"》，题图来自：视 觉中国 9月26日，港股生物医药股普跌，截至收盘，港股创新药指数（HKD）下跌2.50%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，自10月1日起， 美国将对多类进口产品实施新一轮高额关税。措施包括对厨房橱柜、浴室洗手台及相关建材征收50%关 税，对进口家具征收30%关税，并对专利及品牌药品（any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product） 加征100%关税。 9月26日，多位业内人士对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，仿制药不在本次加征关税的范围之内，中国创 新药到美国销售的品种有限，因此该关税对中国药企的影响很有限，"欧洲药企受影响较大"。 中国药品出口额相对较小，核心出海药品不受关税影响 近年来，中国创新药企业的海外授权（License-out）交易数量日益增加。根据医药魔方数据，在过去4 年，美国企业在这类交易中担任受让方的占比接 ...

Core Points - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding drug import tariffs will not apply to countries with which the U.S. has agreements that include drug provisions, benefiting major economies like the EU and Japan [1] - Drugs imported from the EU will incur a maximum tariff of 15% based on their framework agreement, while Japanese drugs will be taxed according to the agreed rates in the U.S.-Japan agreement [1] - The U.K. faces a different situation, with a potential 100% tariff on drugs exported to the U.S. due to the lack of an agreed-upon tariff rate between the U.S. and the U.K. [1] - Trump's announcement includes a 100% tariff on all "brand or patented drugs" unless companies are building or planning to build drug manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has also reduced auto tariffs from 25% to 15% in alignment with a new trade agreement with the EU [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential imposition of a 100% tariff on imported brand and patented drugs by the Trump administration starting October 1, 2025, has raised concerns among pharmaceutical companies, particularly those in China, leading to a decline in their stock prices [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Pharmaceutical Companies - The announcement of the tariff has caused significant declines in the stock prices of Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with Heng Rui Pharmaceutical dropping 3.03% in A-shares and 2.23% in Hong Kong shares, and BeiGene falling 4.38% in A-shares and 1.55% in Hong Kong shares [2]. - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index (HSIDI) fell by 2.37%, with notable declines in stocks such as Fosun Pharma, which dropped 5.82%, and 3SBio, which fell by 5.34% [3]. - Industry experts suggest that the impact of the tariff on Chinese pharmaceutical companies may be limited, as many are focused on generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [4]. Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Some industry leaders believe that the tariff policy may not be implemented as proposed, citing the high cost of drugs in the U.S. and the potential for political changes in future administrations [4][5]. - Companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical indicated that their current exports primarily consist of generics and APIs, suggesting minimal impact from the proposed tariffs [4]. - Other companies, such as Lepu Biopharma, noted that their licensing partnerships would shield them from significant effects [5]. Group 3: U.S. Policy Context - The Trump administration has previously threatened to impose tariffs on imported drugs, with discussions around a 200% tariff and subsequent smaller tariffs leading to a potential increase over time [6][7]. - Major multinational pharmaceutical companies have responded to the tariff threats by committing to significant investments in U.S. manufacturing, with companies like Novartis and Roche pledging $23 billion and $50 billion respectively over the next five years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of a 100% tariff on all brand-name and patented drugs by the U.S. government starting October 1, 2025, unless companies are building drug manufacturing plants in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Pharmaceutical stocks in multiple markets, including China, Japan, and South Korea, experienced a collective decline following the announcement [3] - Specific declines included a 3.03% drop in Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH/01276.HK) A-shares and a 2.23% drop in Hong Kong shares, while BeiGene (ONC.NASDAQ/06160.HK/688235.SH) saw a 4.38% drop in A-shares and a 1.55% drop in Hong Kong shares [3] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index (HSIDI) fell by 2.37%, with notable declines in stocks such as Fosun Pharma (600196.SH/02196.HK) down 5.82% and 3SBio (01530.HK) down 5.34% [4] Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Industry experts suggest that Chinese pharmaceutical companies aiming to expand internationally need to consider the potential implementation of this policy and explore possible solutions [5] - Some executives believe that the high cost of drugs in the U.S. may hinder the realization of this policy [5] - Hengrui Medicine's executive noted that the impact of the potential policy would be limited as their exports mainly consist of generic drugs and APIs [5] - Other companies, such as Lepu Biopharma, indicated that their licensing partnerships would not be significantly affected [5] - Investors pointed out that this is a political issue that could change with future administrations, suggesting that while there may be short-term negative impacts, the long-term effects may not be significant [5] Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, pharmaceuticals have been excluded from tariff lists, but President Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on imported drugs this year [5] - The Trump administration initiated a "232 investigation" under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows for tariffs if imports threaten national security [6] - Previous statements from Trump indicated plans for escalating tariffs on imported drugs, with initial small tariffs leading to potential increases up to 250% [7] Group 4: Investment Commitments - In response to the tariff threats, several multinational pharmaceutical companies have committed to investing in U.S. manufacturing facilities, with significant investments announced by companies like Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca [8] - Notably, Novartis and Roche pledged $23 billion and $50 billion respectively over five years, while AstraZeneca committed to a $50 billion investment by 2030 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Global pharmaceutical companies are facing a difficult choice: invest billions in building factories in the U.S. or bear up to 100% tariff costs on imported drugs [1][2] Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. tariff policy aims to push pharmaceutical companies to relocate production to the U.S. and encourage investment in domestic manufacturing [2] - Following the tariff announcement, Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks experienced declines, indicating market concerns about the changes [2] - Approximately 80% of generic drug active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and some high-value finished drugs in the U.S. are reliant on imports, highlighting the need for domestic production [2] Consequences for Pharmaceutical Companies - Companies without U.S. manufacturing facilities will face significant losses due to the 100% tariff, potentially doubling the end-user prices of imported drugs [4] - For example, a European company's cancer drug costing $100 per treatment could rise to $200 due to tariffs, forcing companies to either absorb losses or increase prices [4] - Companies dependent on single overseas production sites must urgently evaluate alternatives, such as accelerating U.S. factory construction or seeking non-U.S. production options [4] Global Pharmaceutical Landscape - The tariff policy is expected to accelerate the shift of pharmaceutical distribution networks, with Indian pharmaceutical companies likely to benefit, potentially capturing nearly 50% of global generic drug revenue by 2030 [6] - European pharmaceutical companies are also expressing concerns about the risk of industry migration from Europe to the U.S. due to the tariffs [6] Impact on Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - The tariff announcement is expected to have a limited impact on Chinese pharmaceutical companies, primarily affecting patented drugs, and the operational feasibility of the policy is uncertain [7] - Chinese companies need to enhance risk awareness to address potential challenges arising from geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes [7] - The U.S. foreign investment review process is expanding to include healthcare, which may affect Chinese companies regardless of their listing status [7][9] Market Dynamics and Listing Trends - The attractiveness of the U.S. stock market for innovative pharmaceutical companies is diminishing compared to Hong Kong, as regulatory hurdles increase for Chinese biotech firms seeking U.S. listings [10] - The Hong Kong market has become more appealing for mainland biotech companies, with significant fundraising activity observed in 2023 [12][14] - The introduction of a confidential listing application process in Hong Kong has allowed companies to avoid early public disclosures, enhancing their competitive positioning [14] Future Outlook - The geopolitical environment is complex, but the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is expected to leverage its strengths in drug development and commercialization [16] - China's drug approval activity is increasing, with a projected rise in the share of Chinese drugs in U.S. FDA approvals from 4% in 2024 to 35% by 2040 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 100% tariff on brand-name and patented drugs by President Trump could significantly increase costs for pharmaceutical companies without U.S. production capabilities, putting additional pressure on companies that have not yet initiated manufacturing in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Impact on Pharmaceutical Companies - Companies like Novartis (NVS.US) and Sanofi (SNY.US) have announced large-scale investments in the U.S., but the progress of these projects remains unclear [1] - Merck (MRK.US), Novo Nordisk (NVO.US), and Eli Lilly (LLY.US) have initiated U.S. manufacturing plans in states like Delaware, North Carolina, and Texas to support production of key drugs in oncology, diabetes, and immunology [1] - AbbVie (ABBV.US) plans to expand its production facilities in Illinois for cancer drug Imbruvica and immunology drug Skyrizi [1] Group 2: Economic Estimates and Trade Agreements - Economists estimate that the new tariffs could affect approximately $220 billion in U.S. drug imports, raising the average tariff rate by 3.3 percentage points [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether countries with trade agreements with the U.S. can be exempt from these new tariffs, as seen in the EU's recent agreement which set drug tariffs at 15% [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - Major pharmaceutical stocks in Tokyo, Seoul, and Hong Kong experienced declines following the tariff announcement, as investors assessed the risks to Japanese drugs [3] - Companies like Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. and Daiichi Sankyo Co. are particularly at risk due to their heavy reliance on the U.S. market [3] Group 4: Operational Impact on Asian Companies - The operational impact of the new tariffs on Asian pharmaceutical companies is expected to be limited, particularly for Japanese firms, as few sell brand-name drugs in the U.S. [3] - Shionogi & Co. is still considering whether to move its antibiotic production line for multi-drug resistant infections to the U.S. [3] Group 5: Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - Few Chinese companies sell brand-name drugs in the U.S., primarily through multinational partnerships, which may mitigate the impact of the tariffs [5] - BeOne Medicines, a company with origins in China, has achieved significant sales in the U.S. with its cancer therapy Brukinsa, highlighting the complexities of defining imported drugs [5] Group 6: Long-term Market Entry Plans - The tariffs may affect the long-term plans of Chinese pharmaceutical companies aiming to enter the U.S. market, as many are eager to introduce innovative therapies [6] - There are unresolved questions regarding the implementation details of the tariff policy, including definitions of "under construction" and potential exemptions for using U.S. contract manufacturing [6]