Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: General Demand, Egg Prices Decline" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing challenges with weak demand and downward - pressure on prices. The supply side shows a slow de - stocking trend, and the cost of egg - chicken farming is increasing, resulting in negative profits. In the short - term, the egg price is expected to be range - bound, and the long - term outlook depends on the supply - demand balance [5][10][13] Summary by Directory Part I: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas, it was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The demand in the national egg market recovered this week, the inventory was basically cleared, and the egg price rebounded from the low. The old - hen price showed a trend of strengthening first and then stabilizing [5] 2. Supply Analysis - On December 5th, the national main - producing area egg - chicken culling volume was 20.82 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 488 days, 1 day less than the previous week. In November, the national in - production egg - chicken inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chicken chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of November 20th, the corn price was around 2,278 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3,062 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,513 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.76 yuan/jin for eggs. As of November 21st, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of December 5th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7,115 tons, a 4% decrease from the previous week. The production - link inventory decreased, and the circulation - link inventory increased. As of December 3rd, the Shouguang vegetable price index was 144.36, and the national average pork wholesale price was about 14.92 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: The recent increase in culled - chicken volume has relieved the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - stocking speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be range - bound, and the far - month April and May contracts can be considered for long - position building on dips. - Unilateral: The January contract is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Inventory (Zhuochuang) - The data shows the historical in - production egg - chicken inventory and brooding - chicken replenishment volume from 2018 to 2025 [21] 2. Culled - Chicken Situation - The data shows the weekly culled - chicken volume from 2020 to 2025 [22] 3. Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - The data shows the culled - chicken age and the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main producing areas [26] 4. Spread and Basis - The data shows the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 to 2025 [29][30][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of eggs is strong while the demand is weak, and the egg price is still under pressure. The egg futures and spot prices have repeatedly hit new lows, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage. It is recommended to hold the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. The mid - to - long - term capacity reduction process will dominate the probability of market reversal [5][6] - The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference operating range of 2800 - 3200. In terms of options, out - of - the money call options can be sold [6] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - long Views and Strategies - The spot price of eggs has stopped falling, with the main - producing area's average price at 2.91 yuan/jin, a 1.75% increase from last week. The national in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, with great supply pressure. The short - term egg price has touched a new low, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has increased, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [5][13] - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and an 8.87% year - on - year increase. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, resulting in a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory. It is expected that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory in October will continue to decrease slightly, but the supply surplus is still the main theme [5] - Considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses the price. It is expected that the egg price will continue to be under pressure. In October, the demand weakens, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The average spot price of eggs in the main - producing areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a 0.05 - yuan increase from last week, with a 1.75% increase. The low - price area reports 2.53 yuan/jin. The overall supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the egg price is still under pressure [13] 3. Supply Side - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, leading to a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory [23] - In September, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicken seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.8 million, a 2.83% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the chicken - seedling price will still have a slight downward risk next month, with an average monthly price of about 2.85 yuan/feather [29] - This week, the total出栏量 of old hens in 19 representative markets in 10 key producing areas was 609,400, a 1.55% month - on - month increase. The increase in the出栏 volume of old hens has slowed down, and the average slaughter age of culled chickens this week is 497 days [37] - The production - link inventory has increased significantly. Although the storage environment has improved, there is still a bearish sentiment in the market, which is negative for the egg price [42] 4. Demand Side - The egg price shows obvious seasonal characteristics within a year, mainly due to the supply - demand relationship, especially the short - term changes are mainly reflected in the demand side [57] 5. Cost Side - The price fluctuations of corn and soybean meal directly affect the price of egg - laying hen feed raw materials. This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease [65] 6. Cost and Profit - This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease. The farming profit is - 0.50 yuan/jin, a 0.06 - yuan month - on - month increase, with a 10.71% increase. It is expected that the farming profit in October will decline synchronously [65][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, and demand, indicating that the egg market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with weak egg prices and reduced breeding profits. It is expected that in the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices will remain weak, and suggests that previous short positions be closed for profit [5][10][13][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, the same as last Friday. Due to continuous rainy days at the beginning of the week, market demand declined, inventory accumulated, and egg prices fell below the feed cost. After the weather improved, terminal replenishment was active, inventory decreased, and egg prices rebounded slightly. However, overall, egg prices were still weak [5]. - After the National Day, the demand in the egg - laying hen market weakened, the downstream consumption was insufficient, and the confidence of the breeding end in the future was insufficient. The price of old hens was under pressure to decline. As the price of old hens fell to a low point, the breeding end's reluctance to sell gradually emerged, and the price of old hens rebounded slightly at the end of the week [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of the week, affected by egg prices, the enthusiasm of each link to purchase was average, and the inventory in the producing areas was high. Later, as egg prices bottomed out, the breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices, and the inventory decreased. The shipment volume in the main producing areas of national egg - laying hens showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the week of October 16, the slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [10]. - In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6%, higher than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [10]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of October 16, the corn price was around 2,271 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for eggs. This week, the average egg price continued to decline, and the breeding profit decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, after the National Day, affected by the weather, market sales decreased slightly. After egg prices bottomed out, the market's bargain - hunting sentiment increased, and sales increased. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the low prices of substitutes weaken the positive support for egg demand. As of September 11, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7,374 tons, an increase of 2.7% compared with the previous week [16]. - After the National Day holiday, due to bad weather, transportation was restricted, and the inventory in each link was high. In the second half of the week, as the weather improved and egg prices rebounded, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [16]. - This week, the vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly. On October 16, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 96.51, and as of October 15, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.33 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The inventory of laying hens on the supply side remains high, while the demand side is generally weak. It is expected that egg prices will be weak in the short - term, and the nearby contracts are likely to fluctuate weakly. - Unilateral: Close previous short positions for profit. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17].