据摩根大通11月17日发布的全球市场策略报告，美国联邦预算赤字将在2026财年进一步恶化至1.955万亿美元，约占GDP的6.2%。更为严峻的是，受债务 到期量激增影响，美国财政部在2026至2030财年间将面临高达5.5万亿美元的融资缺口。 面对这一财政压力，摩根大通策略师预测，财政部现有的票据发行策略将难以为继，这迫使其必须调整债务管理模式。 据追风交易台，报告指出，虽然当前的附息国债拍卖日程尚能应对2026财年的需求，但从2027财年起，融资缺口将显著扩大。摩根大通预计，美国财政部 将从2026年11月开始启动一系列持续数个季度的发行规模增加计划。 值得注意的是，新增发行的重点将集中在收益率曲线的中前端，而20年期和30年期国债的拍卖规模预计将保持不变，以应对长端需求结构性疲软的现实。 在短期流动性方面，摩根大通预测2026年美国将净发行7700亿美元的国库券。与此同时，美联储在二级市场的操作将成为关键变量。随着美联储量化紧 缩、预计于2025年12月1日结束，该行计划通过二级市场购买约2820亿美元的国库券，并将抵押贷款支持证券的本金支付再投资于国债。这一举措虽然在 短期内缓解了私营部门的吸收压力，但 ...

Core Insights - Ukraine's President Zelensky stated that the country requires an additional $25 billion annually for drone production [1] - The defense team is negotiating a drone deal with the United States worth up to $30 billion [1] - Ukraine needs to fill a financing gap of $40 billion for the upcoming year [1]

Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, slightly higher than the 3.7% growth in 2023, driven mainly by domestic demand while facing inflation and increased financing needs [1] - The GDP growth at current prices is expected to be 7.9% in 2024, down from 11% in 2023, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Sector Performance - The primary sector is underperforming, with an overall value added decline of 4.5%, agricultural output shrinking by 4.8%, and fisheries growth slowing from 6.9% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 [1] - The secondary sector shows strong growth, with value added increasing by 4.2% in 2024 compared to only 0.8% in 2023, driven by mining (+13%), construction (+5%), manufacturing (+3.3%), and utilities (+2.6%) [1] - The tertiary sector remains active but experiences a slight slowdown, with growth rates decreasing from 5% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, although sectors like transportation and storage (+7.4%) and financial services (+7.3%) are accelerating [1] Income and Savings - National disposable income is expected to grow by 7.7% in 2024, down from 10.2% in 2023, while the national savings rate rises to 28.9% of GDP, compared to 28% in 2023 [2] - The investment rate is projected to be 30.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 29% in 2023, leading to an increase in the financing gap from 1% of GDP to 1.2% [2]