智通财经APP讯，中芯国际(688981.SH)在财报中展望，2025年上半年，在国内外政策变化的影响下， 渠道加紧备货、补库存，公司也积极配合客户保证出货，这样的情况预计将持续到三季度。四季度是行 业传统淡季，急单和提拉出货的情况会相对放缓。由于公司整体产能供不应求，因此放缓的量并不会对 公司的产能利用率产生明显影响。在外部环境无重大变化的前提下，公司全年的目标是超过可比同业的 平均值。 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月03日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [美国就业加速降温，降息转折是否 Table_NewTitle] 显 现？ ——海外观察：美国2025年7月非农数据 [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：当地时间8月1日，美国劳工局公布2025年7月美国非农就业数据。美国7月季调后非 农就业人口新增7.3万人，预期10.4万人，前值由14.7万人下修至1.4万人。7月失业率从前 值4.1%回升至4.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国7月非农就业新增7.3万人不及预期，但让市场担忧加剧的不仅仅是7月非 农新增数据，而是前值数据失真。5、6月非农新增数据分别从13.9万人和14.7万人下修至 1.9万人和1.4万人，累计减少25.3万人。与之相反，时薪增速方面则保持较高增速，私营 部门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by policy changes and stricter local government management, with prices reaching 80,500 yuan/ton, a 37.84% increase from the low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 [1][3]. Price Movement - Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up on July 24 and 25, with a closing price of 80,500 yuan/ton on the latter date. The trading volume was significant, with 132 billion yuan on July 24 and 95.6 billion yuan on July 25 [3]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton [3]. Market Dynamics - Traders are currently experiencing higher profit margins, with earnings of 1,000 yuan per ton compared to previous margins of 200 yuan [2]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with traders expressing a bullish outlook on lithium carbonate prices [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - The lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,200 tons in July, while imports decreased by 16.3% month-on-month [7]. - Low inventory levels among downstream manufacturers are contributing to the upward pressure on prices, as many are only holding two weeks' worth of supply [7]. Capacity and Regulatory Environment - The operating rate in the lithium industry is around 60%, up from a low of 50% during poor market conditions [4]. - Local governments are taking actions to reduce production capacity, which is expected to positively impact prices. For instance, certain companies have been ordered to halt illegal mining activities [5][6]. Future Outlook - If lithium carbonate prices reach 100,000 yuan/ton, it is anticipated that all segments of the industry will see improved profitability [1][8]. - The long-term cost support and short-term improvements in market fundamentals suggest that lithium prices may recover from their recent lows [7].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[2] - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, indicating ongoing export challenges despite temporary easing in US-China trade tensions[3] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, with consumer goods PMI improving by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%[3] Inventory and Production Trends - Finished goods inventory index surged by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, but annualized index fell by 0.1 percentage points to a low of 47.6%[4] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, reflecting a temporary improvement in production driven by consumption and export demand[4] Economic Outlook and Risks - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to subsidies stimulating durable consumption and a second wave of export efforts[4] - Future uncertainties hinge on the domestic real estate market's recovery and the potential impact of the US tax reduction plan on local production and consumption[4] - There is a risk of additional interest rate cuts if the real estate market continues to struggle, with potential for increased subsidies for durable goods[4]