Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The main contract of rebar has seen three consecutive days of shrinking trading volume and narrow intraday fluctuations, closing at 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand: Demand has entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. It is at a near - 4 - year low. Spot market transactions are mainly for rigid procurement, and speculative demand is low. Real estate data continued to decline in November, and the real estate sector still drags down demand. Future attention should be paid to infrastructure demand [2] - Inventory: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory shows the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure is still controllable [3][4] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry [4] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke have stabilized and rebounded, enhancing cost support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous supply contraction, ongoing inventory destocking, expectations of loose policies, large discount on the futures price providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the stop - fall and rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [6] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6] Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the rebar market is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1][6] Core Viewpoint - The current rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the decline in production, the rise in furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide downside support. After the market has digested the off - season demand and the news of steel export licenses, it is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation and run oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start node of winter storage demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main rebar contract oscillated and rose during the day, closing at 3,081 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The trading volume was 778,715 lots, showing a stabilizing and rebounding trend in the past two trading days [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 199 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand side: Demand entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. The spot market transactions were mainly for rigid procurement, and the speculative demand was low [2] - Inventory side: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience, and the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [2] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December was in line with expectations. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive [3] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized and rebounded, enhancing the cost support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous contraction of supply, continued inventory destocking, policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [5]

Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the prominent supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry, aiming for dynamic balance and industrial transformation [1] - The meeting emphasized the prohibition of new capacity, regulation of existing capacity, and elimination of outdated capacity [1] - Key enterprises are expected to lead by implementing capacity replacement policies and ensuring that actual capacity aligns with registered capacity by the end of 2025 [1] Capacity and Production Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the actual annual production capacity of cement clinker is expected to decrease from 2.2 billion tons to below 1.8 billion tons, resulting in a capacity reduction of over 400 million tons and an increase in capacity utilization by over 10% [2] - Since 2024, approximately 7.072 million tons of capacity have been removed through capacity replacement, indicating a significant gap to the 400 million tons target, with the fourth quarter expected to see a peak in capacity indicator replenishment [2] Company Specifics - Hainan Ruize focuses on the production and sales of ready-mixed concrete, new wall materials, and cement [3] - Shangfeng Cement is one of the leading companies in the domestic cement industry, with an annual production capacity of approximately 18 million tons of cement clinker and 20 million tons of cement [3]

Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by policy changes and stricter local government management, with prices reaching 80,500 yuan/ton, a 37.84% increase from the low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 [1][3]. Price Movement - Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up on July 24 and 25, with a closing price of 80,500 yuan/ton on the latter date. The trading volume was significant, with 132 billion yuan on July 24 and 95.6 billion yuan on July 25 [3]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton [3]. Market Dynamics - Traders are currently experiencing higher profit margins, with earnings of 1,000 yuan per ton compared to previous margins of 200 yuan [2]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with traders expressing a bullish outlook on lithium carbonate prices [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - The lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,200 tons in July, while imports decreased by 16.3% month-on-month [7]. - Low inventory levels among downstream manufacturers are contributing to the upward pressure on prices, as many are only holding two weeks' worth of supply [7]. Capacity and Regulatory Environment - The operating rate in the lithium industry is around 60%, up from a low of 50% during poor market conditions [4]. - Local governments are taking actions to reduce production capacity, which is expected to positively impact prices. For instance, certain companies have been ordered to halt illegal mining activities [5][6]. Future Outlook - If lithium carbonate prices reach 100,000 yuan/ton, it is anticipated that all segments of the industry will see improved profitability [1][8]. - The long-term cost support and short-term improvements in market fundamentals suggest that lithium prices may recover from their recent lows [7].