【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：成交缩量窄幅震荡 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约连续三日成交缩量，日内窄幅震荡，收于 3084 元/吨，上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%。成交量 593611 手。近三个交易日 呈现企稳回升走势。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3280 元/吨，较 上一交易日持平。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 196 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上可能支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截止 12 月 11 当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 10.53 万吨至 178.78 万吨，公历同比下降 39.29 万吨，产量处于近 4 年低位。我的钢铁网 公布的 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%，环比下降 1.53 个百分点。同比去年 减少 1.92%。钢厂盈利率 35.93%，较上一周下降 0.43%，日均铁水产量减少 3.1 万吨至 229.2 万吨。本轮产量下降原因主要由于高炉检修，亏损减产导 致。后续关注本周四产量数据。 需求端：需求进入传统淡季，截止 12 月 11 日当周，表 ...

一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约日内震荡上涨，收于 3081 元/吨，上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅 0.55%。成交量 778715 手。近两个交易日呈现企稳回升走势。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3280 元/吨，较 上一交易日上涨 10 元/吨。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 199 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上可能支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截止 12 月 11 当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 10.53 万吨至 178.78 万吨，公历同比下降 39.29 万吨，产量处于近 4 年低位。我的钢铁网 公布的 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%，环比下降 1.53 个百分点。同比去年 减少 1.92%。钢厂盈利率 35.93%，较上一周下降 0.43%，日均铁水产量减少 3.1 万吨至 229.2 万吨。本轮产量下降原因主要由于高炉检修，亏损减产导 致。后续关注本周产量数据。 需求端：需求进入传统淡季，截止 12 月 11 日当周，表观消费量周 ...

Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the prominent supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry, aiming for dynamic balance and industrial transformation [1] - The meeting emphasized the prohibition of new capacity, regulation of existing capacity, and elimination of outdated capacity [1] - Key enterprises are expected to lead by implementing capacity replacement policies and ensuring that actual capacity aligns with registered capacity by the end of 2025 [1] Capacity and Production Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the actual annual production capacity of cement clinker is expected to decrease from 2.2 billion tons to below 1.8 billion tons, resulting in a capacity reduction of over 400 million tons and an increase in capacity utilization by over 10% [2] - Since 2024, approximately 7.072 million tons of capacity have been removed through capacity replacement, indicating a significant gap to the 400 million tons target, with the fourth quarter expected to see a peak in capacity indicator replenishment [2] Company Specifics - Hainan Ruize focuses on the production and sales of ready-mixed concrete, new wall materials, and cement [3] - Shangfeng Cement is one of the leading companies in the domestic cement industry, with an annual production capacity of approximately 18 million tons of cement clinker and 20 million tons of cement [3]

Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by policy changes and stricter local government management, with prices reaching 80,500 yuan/ton, a 37.84% increase from the low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 [1][3]. Price Movement - Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up on July 24 and 25, with a closing price of 80,500 yuan/ton on the latter date. The trading volume was significant, with 132 billion yuan on July 24 and 95.6 billion yuan on July 25 [3]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton [3]. Market Dynamics - Traders are currently experiencing higher profit margins, with earnings of 1,000 yuan per ton compared to previous margins of 200 yuan [2]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with traders expressing a bullish outlook on lithium carbonate prices [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - The lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,200 tons in July, while imports decreased by 16.3% month-on-month [7]. - Low inventory levels among downstream manufacturers are contributing to the upward pressure on prices, as many are only holding two weeks' worth of supply [7]. Capacity and Regulatory Environment - The operating rate in the lithium industry is around 60%, up from a low of 50% during poor market conditions [4]. - Local governments are taking actions to reduce production capacity, which is expected to positively impact prices. For instance, certain companies have been ordered to halt illegal mining activities [5][6]. Future Outlook - If lithium carbonate prices reach 100,000 yuan/ton, it is anticipated that all segments of the industry will see improved profitability [1][8]. - The long-term cost support and short-term improvements in market fundamentals suggest that lithium prices may recover from their recent lows [7].