Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by policy changes and stricter local government management, with prices reaching 80,500 yuan/ton, a 37.84% increase from the low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 [1][3]. Price Movement - Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up on July 24 and 25, with a closing price of 80,500 yuan/ton on the latter date. The trading volume was significant, with 132 billion yuan on July 24 and 95.6 billion yuan on July 25 [3]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton [3]. Market Dynamics - Traders are currently experiencing higher profit margins, with earnings of 1,000 yuan per ton compared to previous margins of 200 yuan [2]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with traders expressing a bullish outlook on lithium carbonate prices [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - The lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,200 tons in July, while imports decreased by 16.3% month-on-month [7]. - Low inventory levels among downstream manufacturers are contributing to the upward pressure on prices, as many are only holding two weeks' worth of supply [7]. Capacity and Regulatory Environment - The operating rate in the lithium industry is around 60%, up from a low of 50% during poor market conditions [4]. - Local governments are taking actions to reduce production capacity, which is expected to positively impact prices. For instance, certain companies have been ordered to halt illegal mining activities [5][6]. Future Outlook - If lithium carbonate prices reach 100,000 yuan/ton, it is anticipated that all segments of the industry will see improved profitability [1][8]. - The long-term cost support and short-term improvements in market fundamentals suggest that lithium prices may recover from their recent lows [7].