Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 06 月 30 日 制造业 PMI 短期小幅改善，不确定性延迟但未消除 ——PMI 点评（2025.6） 投资要点： 补贴刺激耐用消费、二轮抢出口延续，6 月制造业 PMI 再度小幅改善 但仍低于荣枯线。6 月制造业 PMI 小幅回升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%，连续三 宏 观 点 评 个月位于荣枯线之下，呈现以下结构性特征：1）继 5 月低位大幅反弹后 6 月新出口订单指数再度上行 0.2 个百分点至 47.7%，与出口相关度较高的高 技术制造业和装备制造业 PMI 分别持平于 50.9%、上行 0.2 个百分点至 51.4%，二季度新出口订单整体表现较去年偏弱，显示尽管中美贸易形势阶 段性缓和，但中长期不确定性仍然较高，出口下行风险延迟但未消除。2） 新订单指数反弹 0.4 个百分点至 50.2%，消费品行业 PMI 也改善 0.2 个百分 点至 50.4%，结合 5 月社零增速创阶段性新高来看，本轮财政补贴主要覆 盖的家电通讯两大类耐用品消费表现持续向好。3）生产指数再度上行 0.3 个百分点至 51.0%，显示消费和出口等需求带动生产阶段性改善。 产成品库存指数季节性 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 供给或有扰动 镍价小幅反弹 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 宏观面，美国经济软数据有走弱迹象，劳动力市场整体平 稳。美联储议息会议维持现有政策利率不变，但仍强调未来 经济的不确定性，并在上调通胀预期的同时下修经济增速。 ⚫ 基本面：镍矿价格维持高位，印尼大多数镍铁厂已处于成本 倒挂状态，部分镍铁厂传减产检修计划。传统终端延续弱 势，不锈钢价 ...

♦ 从投向上看，财政对社会保险基金的补贴，集中在基本养老保险和基本医疗保险。进一步拆分看，可发现财 政资金在补贴基本养老保险和基本医疗保险时，侧重点有所区别，目前对城镇居民社会保险相关的财政补贴集 中在养老，而对农村居民社会保险相关的财政补贴则以医疗为主。 本文首发于2025年1月27日 核心观点 ♦ 老龄化加速的背景下，社会保险基金对财政补贴的需求可能持续上升。这种潜在支出责任，也是当前财政加 杠杆的约束之一。 ♦ 2013年以来，社会保险基金累计结余金额能够持续增加，主要是靠财政补贴在支撑。 财政补贴占社会保险基 金收入的比例在两成左右。但对社会保险基金的财政补贴额占公共财政支出的比例逐年上升，2013年公共财政 支出中对社会保险基金的补贴占比为5.3%，2023年上升到了8.8%。 ♦ 展望未来，社保保险基金对财政补贴的需求可能较快上升，有以下三个原因： ♦ 第一， 人口老龄化加速，会在收入和支出两端同时增加社会保险基金，尤其是基本养老金的缺口。 ♦ 第二， 公共福利支出普遍存在只进不退的"棘轮效应"，且由于经济增速中枢下移，面临社会保险断缴人数上 升、失业保险领取比例提高等问题，这些都会增加未来的社保 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， "健全最低工资标准调整机制，科学合理提高最低工资标准"。 现存的最低工资标准调整机制是"每两 年至三年至少调整一次"，主要省市也都是这样执行的。今年要促消费，政府工作报告明确"完善劳动者工资 正常增长机制"。从国家发改委向全国人大做国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况报告中"适当加快提高最低工 资标准，2025年原则上所有省份都要调整"来看，"适当加快"对应频次后续可能会有所提升，更为常态化， 年均复合增幅会更快。目前主要省份年均复合增幅明显低于名义GDP增速，理论上来说，最低工资年均复合 增幅标准向经济增长速度靠拢应是一个可以参照的原则。在《六个角度认识消费》中，我们指出，"从消费的 永续收入假说"（PIH）来看，收入的持续增长预期应比一次性补贴更能带来消费倾向的提升"，后续政策空间 值得进一步关注。 第二，"加大重点工程项目和中小型农业农村基础设施建设领域以工代赈实施力度，扩大劳务报酬发放规 模"。 以工代赈是近年稳定就业的重要思路之一，以2024年为例，国家以工代赈政策累计吸纳就业总数为 332万人，发放 ...

正文 老龄化加速的背景下，社会保险基金对财政补贴的需求可能持续上升。这种潜在支出责任，也是当前财政 加杠杆的约束之一。 社会保险基金，主要包括基本养老保险、基本医疗保险、失业保险和工伤保险四类，生育保险已按照社保 基金的财务制度和职工基本医疗保险合并。它的资金来源，有保险费收入、财政补贴收入、利息收入和委 托投资收入。 需要区分社会保险基金和社会保障基金 。前文对社会保险基金做了简要介绍，而社会保障基金可以理解为 是国家为了应对人口老龄化高峰时期的养老保险等社会保障支出压力，而设立的战略储备基金。同时成立 了社会保障基金理事会来管理这笔资金，社保理事会通过专业化的投资，实现社会保障基金保值增值，为 中国社会保障事业贡献积极力量。 老龄化加速的背景下，社会保险基金对财政补贴的需求可能持续上升。这种潜在支出责任，也是当前 财政加杠杆的约束之一。 2013年以来，社会保险基金累计结余金额能够持续增加，主要是靠财政补贴在支撑 。财政补贴占社 会保险基金收入的比例在两成左右。但对社会保险基金的财政补贴额占公共财政支出的比例逐年上 升， 2013 年公共财政支出中对社会保险基金的补贴占比为 5.3% ， 2023 年上升 ...