维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。考虑到公司后续产品储备丰富，经典游戏表现亮眼，有道等创新业务持续发 展，我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润有望达到351.0/384.9/425.3 亿元。维持 "强烈推荐"投资评 级。 风险提示：新游表现不及预期、竞争格局恶化、监管风险。 三季度公司多款经典游戏表现优秀。《梦幻西游》电脑版最高同时在线玩家次数连创四次新高，达到 358 万；新游戏上线进一步丰富产品矩阵，包括《命运：群星》在海外及国内上线后登顶多地区iOS 下 载榜，《无限大》在2025东京电玩展推出线下试玩后引发热烈反响，《逆水寒》手游及《燕云十六声》 于11 月在全球上线，《遗忘之海》有望于2026 年上线贡献增量。此外，暴雪系列游戏中，《魔兽世 界》近期推出国区独家"泰坦重铸"服务器，《暗黑破坏神II》重制版和《星际争霸I》分别于8 月27 日和 10 月28 日回归中国，《暗黑破坏神IV》国区即将在12 月12 日上线。 有道持续推动AI 技术升级与落地，教育及广告领域商业化成果显著。25Q3有道实现收入16 亿元，同比 增长3.6%，环比增长主要来自智能硬件及在线营销服务收入增长；云音乐25Q3 ...

10月市场收入313.59亿元 运营活动与双端产品共促增长 2025年10月，中国移动游戏市场收入达226.33亿元，环比增长5.33%，同比增长2.36%。多款头部产品通过周年庆活动与版本更新有效激发用户活跃度与付 费动力，带动市场收入回升。 海外市场方面，10月中国自主研发游戏海外市场实际销售收入为17.99亿美元，环比增长10.96%，同比增长11.90%。 中国游戏市场实际销售收入 智通财经APP获悉，伽马数据发布的《2025年10月中国游戏产业月度报告》显示，10月中国国内游戏市场收入为313.59亿元，环比增长5.66%，同比增长 7.83%。运营活动与双端产品双轮驱动。 按不同类型看，2025年10月，中国客户端游戏市场收入为72.27亿元，环比增长1.92%，同比增长29.39%。双端互通产品数量、流水双增长。 2025年10月中国国内游戏市场收入为313.59亿元，环比增长5.66%，同比增长7.83%。环比来看，移动游戏市场贡献主要增量，部分产品依托周年庆、版本 更新及相关活动实现有效拉新与留存；同时，《逃离鸭科夫》等单机产品表现亮眼，为单机游戏市场带来环比增量。同比方面，客户端游戏市场成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 31.0%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement in profitability is attributed to gains from fair value changes in stock investments and lower net exchange losses [5] - The company’s contract liabilities reached 19.5 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%, indicating strong growth momentum [5] - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Dream of the Red Chamber" and the successful launch of new games, which are expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 357 billion yuan, 383 billion yuan, and 429 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 15.5, and 13.8 times [5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 103.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and net profit is expected to be 29.4 billion yuan, showing no growth year-on-year [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 60.9% in 2023 to 64.7% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 28.4% in 2023 to 31.4% in 2025 [6]

该行预测网易2025财年第四季、2025财年及2026财年经调整净利分别为96亿、399亿及416亿元，按年持 平、增长19%与增长4%。该行将网易美股目标价由160美元上调至168美元，维持"优于大市"评级。 海通国际发表报告指，网易第三季业绩略逊预期，总营收低于预期3%；游戏营收低于预期2%；经营利 润率因销售与市场支出增加而低于预期3个百分点，非公认会计准则净利润符合预期，主要得益于超预 期的投资收益。 报告指，网易整体利润率趋势健康。由于海外PC及主机平台的《燕云十六声》利润率相对较低，该游 戏在海外市场的扩张可能拖累游戏毛利率。音乐业务毛利率呈上升趋势，而有道业务毛利率因营收结构 变化而下降。同时预期第四季营销费用将因季节性因素按季下降。 ...

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 8% to 28.4 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit rose by 27% to 9.5 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to unrecognized revenue from some products and higher-than-expected marketing expenses [1] - The company declared a dividend of $0.114 per share and extended its share repurchase program of up to $5 billion until January 2029, having repurchased $2 billion by the end of Q3 2025 [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue from games and value-added services grew by 12%, driven by flagship products such as "Dream of Dreams" and "Egg Party," showcasing the company's long-term game operation capabilities [1] - Marketing expenses increased by 17% to 4.46 billion yuan, primarily due to seasonal promotional activities and new version marketing for flagship products, leading to a significant increase in deferred revenue [1] Investment and New Game Releases - The company achieved investment income of 1.38 billion yuan, which helped offset the impact of increased marketing expenses on profits [1] - New games "Destiny: Stars" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are set to launch in overseas and Chinese markets, with the former nominated for the 2025 TGA Best Mobile Game [1] - The company plans to focus on global capabilities and the progress of key new games, with several titles in the pipeline for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current valuations at 16/15x for Hong Kong stocks and 15/14x for U.S. stocks for 2025/2026 Non-GAAP P/E [2] - The company retains an outperform rating and a target price of 275 HKD / 177 USD, indicating an upside potential of 29% for Hong Kong stocks and 33% for U.S. stocks [2]

| NTES 网易 | | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 133,950 ↑ +0.530 +0.40% | | 收盘价 11/20 16:00 美东 | | 131.000 ↓ -2.950 -2.20% | | 盘前价 11/21 04:08 美东 | | 二 2 24 2 5 8 日 ♥ 白 ♥ 白 一 白 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 138.548 | 开盘价 130.305 | 成交量 151.21万 | | 最低价 129.010 | 昨收价 133.420 | 成交额 2.04亿 | | 平均价 134.816 | 市盈率 16.89 | 总市值 848.17亿(m) | | 振 幅 7.15% | 市盈率(静) 20.74 | 总股本 6.33亿 | | 换手率 0.43% | 市净率 3.862 | 流通值 469.94亿 | | 52周最高 159.550 委 比 -52.69% | | 流通股 3.51亿 | | 52周最低 82.739 量 比 1.43 | | 色 主 1胎 | | 历史最高 159.550 股息TTM 2.946 | | 换股比率 ...

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q3 total revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, with online gaming revenue increasing by 13%, both below market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 9.5 billion yuan, in line with expectations, as record-high sales expenses offset investment income [1] - Cash collections grew by 14% year-on-year, matching optimistic forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue growth of 8% year-on-year [1] - Online gaming revenue growth of 13% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit of 9.5 billion yuan, meeting expectations [1] - Cash collections increased by 14% year-on-year [1] Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance resource allocation efficiency in game development and operations [1] - Focus will be on a smaller number of new games with higher potential and the operation of key evergreen titles [1] - Anticipation of continued market attention on the overseas version of "Yan Yun Sixteen Sounds" following its initial success [1] Ratings and Price Targets - The company maintains a "Buy" rating [1] - Target price for Hong Kong stocks adjusted from 270 HKD to 265 HKD [1] - Target price for US stocks adjusted from 172 USD to 170 USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase reported a net revenue of 28.4 billion RMB for Q3 2025, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 32% to 8.6 billion RMB [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 net revenue reached 28.4 billion RMB, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion RMB, a 32% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 26.7% year-on-year growth [1] - Investment income increased from 580 million RMB to 1.38 billion RMB year-on-year, while foreign exchange losses decreased from 1.06 billion RMB to 370 million RMB [2] Business Segments - Revenue from online games and related value-added services was 23.3 billion RMB, an 11.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for approximately 97.6% of the segment's net revenue [6] - Major contributors to online game revenue included classic IPs like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and new releases such as "Marvel Showdown" [6] - Other business segments, including Youdao Education and Cloud Music, fell short of analyst expectations, with Youdao's revenue at 1.6 billion RMB (up 3.6%) and Cloud Music's at 2 billion RMB (down 1.8%) [6] Management Strategy - Management emphasized a focus on refining existing successful products rather than diversifying into uncertain new projects [4][5] - The company aims to enhance efficiency and concentrate resources on evergreen projects while being cautious with new project investments [5] - R&D expenditure for Q3 was 4.5 billion RMB, with AI applications significantly improving production efficiency across various processes [7] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, NetEase's stock fell by 3% in pre-market trading in the US and by 1.39% in Hong Kong, closing at 212.6 HKD per share [3] - Despite recent adjustments, the stock price has increased by over 58% since the beginning of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura analysts predict that NetEase's third-quarter revenue may fall short of high market expectations, with game and related value-added service revenue expected to grow by 12% year-on-year, below market forecasts [1] Group 1: Game Revenue Insights - Mobile game revenue is expected to recover, with a projected growth of 4% in the third quarter, driven by evergreen games such as "Party Animals" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" [1] - PC game revenue growth may slow to 32% due to a high base effect from the return of "World of Warcraft" to the Chinese market last year [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Nomura maintains a "Buy" rating on NetEase's H-shares, with the target price unchanged at HKD 249.00 [1]

Core Insights - Recent personnel changes at NetEase's gaming division indicate a significant restructuring, particularly affecting the Guangzhou-based teams, which have historically been crucial to the company's success [1][4][8] Group 1: Personnel Changes - NetEase's gaming division has experienced a series of high-profile departures, including the resignation of key figures such as Lin Yunfeng and Li Kaiming, indicating a potential shift in leadership strategy [2][6][16] - Li Kaiming announced his departure to pursue entrepreneurial ventures, countering rumors of being forced out, and confirmed he had initiated his resignation process earlier [7][11] - The restructuring is seen as part of a broader strategy by CEO Ding Lei to address underperformance in the Guangzhou region, which has seen a lack of successful new titles in recent years [9][28][36] Group 2: Performance and Strategy - The Guangzhou gaming units, particularly the Dream and Tenth divisions, have faced challenges with recent projects, including the underwhelming performance of "射雕" and the cancellation of "万民长歌：三国," leading to a reassessment of their operational effectiveness [29][31][34] - The restructuring aligns with a trend of shifting focus towards younger talent and innovative projects, as evidenced by the success of titles emerging from the Hangzhou-based teams [25][37] - NetEase's strategy appears to be moving away from its historical reliance on veteran teams in Guangzhou, as the company seeks to rejuvenate its game offerings and adapt to changing market demands [36][37] Group 3: Market Position - Despite the upheaval, NetEase continues to maintain a presence in the mobile gaming market, with "梦幻西游手游" and "率土之滨" remaining top performers, showcasing the enduring appeal of its legacy titles [10][34] - The company is actively recruiting in Hangzhou, indicating a strategic shift in its operational focus from Guangzhou to its headquarters, reflecting a broader trend in the gaming industry towards centralization of talent and resources [36]