证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业 2026 年度策略 行业景气向好，盈利与估值共振可期 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/2/26 2025/4/26 2025/6/26 2025/8/26 2025/10/26 2025/12/26 2026/2/26 沪深300 证券Ⅱ(申万) | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -4 | -6 | -17 | | 绝对收益 | -4 | -1 | 3 | 注：相对收益与沪深300相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 行情复盘：A 股"滞涨"，H 股重估 2025 年券商业绩改善的确定性较强，但估值却呈现"滞涨"，我们认为有 两方面原因：一是 2024.9.24-2025.12.31 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CICC, along with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, has announced a significant asset restructuring plan, which is expected to reshape the securities industry landscape and propel CICC's growth [1] - The share exchange ratios for the merger are set at 1:0.4373 for Dongxing Securities and 1:0.5188 for Cinda Securities, both reflecting varying degrees of premium [1] - Following the merger, CICC's total asset scale is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, making it the fourth "trillion-dollar giant" in the industry [1] Group 2 - The securities sector is anticipated to experience a wave of mergers and acquisitions in 2025, with significant progress expected in 2026 under the guidance of regulatory authorities [2] - Three main lines of mergers are identified: mergers between brokers under the same controlling shareholder, mergers between regional listed and non-listed brokers, and mergers aimed at filling business gaps [2] - The industry still has ample room for incremental business growth, and leading brokers are expected to strengthen their positions through mergers and increased leverage [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has officially resumed trading after a nearly month-long suspension, with positive market reactions observed in both H-shares and A-shares, indicating investor optimism about the company's strategic moves [1][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - CICC announced a significant strategic initiative to reshape the industry by acquiring Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities through a share swap, issuing 3.096 billion A-shares as transaction consideration [4]. - The exchange ratio is set at 0.4373 shares of CICC A-shares for each share of Dongxing Securities and 0.5188 shares for each share of Cinda Securities, with the transaction price per share at 36.91 RMB, reflecting a 5.79% premium over the pre-suspension price of 34.89 RMB [4]. - The transaction requires approval from three shareholder meetings and regulatory review, with CICC's H-share proportion in total equity expected to decrease from 39.44% to 24.03% post-transaction, while Central Huijin will maintain its controlling shareholder status [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the acquisition announcement, CICC's H-shares rose by 2.95% to 19.52 HKD, while A-shares increased by 4.79% to 36.56 RMB, although both experienced a slight pullback after initial gains [1][4]. - The market has largely priced in the merger expectations during CICC's suspension, leading to profit-taking by short-term traders upon resumption, resulting in selling pressure [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The brokerage sector is experiencing increased consolidation, driven by both policy support and market dynamics, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and create strategic opportunities for leading firms [8]. - Regulatory policies have been increasingly supportive since 2019, with the latest "National Nine Articles" further encouraging mergers and acquisitions among top firms to enhance core competitiveness [8]. - Recent data indicates that the top ten listed brokerages now account for 65% of total industry revenue and 70.6% of net profits, highlighting a trend of increasing concentration amid a challenging market environment for smaller firms [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pace of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry will accelerate, particularly among brokerages under the same controlling shareholder, as firms seek to enhance competitiveness through resource integration [9]. - There is an expectation that some brokerages will explore both external and internal growth opportunities, including overseas business expansion, to achieve steady performance growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - The merger and acquisition plan between China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities is a significant step for CICC, expected to reshape the securities industry landscape and enhance its capital strength and comprehensive financial service capabilities [2][6][11]. Group 1: Merger Details - CICC announced a major asset restructuring plan to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with stock trading resuming on December 18 [2][16]. - The merger will result in CICC's total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan, making it the fourth "trillion-dollar giant" in the industry [6][20]. - The share exchange ratios are set at 1:0.4373 for Dongxing Securities and 1:0.5188 for Xinda Securities, with CICC expected to issue approximately 3.096 billion new A-shares [7][21]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - As of November 19, CICC's stock price was 34.89 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 134.7 billion yuan; Dongxing Securities was at 13.13 yuan and 42.4 billion yuan; Xinda Securities was at 17.79 yuan and 57.7 billion yuan [6][20]. - The exchange price for CICC shares is set at 36.91 yuan, while Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities are set at 16.14 yuan and 19.15 yuan, respectively [7][21]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The merger aims to create a comprehensive service system that integrates institutional and retail services, domestic and international operations, and standardized and specialized offerings [11][25]. - CICC's strengths in investment banking and private equity will complement Dongxing and Xinda's regional presence and retail client base, enhancing overall service capabilities and risk management [11][25]. - The restructuring is expected to facilitate deeper strategic collaboration and resource integration among the three companies, positioning them for better service in national strategies and financial risk management [11][25]. Group 4: Industry Context - The merger is part of a broader trend in the securities industry, with expectations for continued consolidation driven by regulatory support and the need for enhanced resource integration [12][26]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions to create influential institutions in the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12][26]. - The current environment restricts equity financing for brokerages, increasing the demand for mergers and acquisitions, particularly among regional boutique firms seeking to expand [13][27].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a major asset restructuring plan by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities marks a significant step towards CICC's transformative growth and is expected to reshape the securities industry landscape [1][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The restructuring plan involves a share swap where CICC will absorb Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, with the trading of their stocks resuming on December 18 [1]. - The share swap prices are set at 36.91 CNY per share for CICC, 16.14 CNY for Dongxing Securities, and 19.15 CNY for Cinda Securities, reflecting their asset values and balancing shareholder interests [7]. - CICC is expected to issue approximately 3.096 billion new A-shares as part of the merger [7]. Group 2: Market Impact - Post-merger, CICC's total asset scale is projected to exceed 1 trillion CNY, positioning it as the fourth "trillion-level" firm in the industry, significantly enhancing its capital strength and service capabilities [5]. - The merger is anticipated to create a comprehensive financial service capability that is resilient to economic cycles, thereby contributing to national strategies and financial risk management [5][11]. Group 3: Strategic Synergies - The merger will enable deep strategic collaboration between CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Cinda Securities, leading to resource integration and an overall enhancement of capital strength [11]. - CICC's existing strengths in investment banking and private equity will complement Dongxing and Cinda's regional presence and retail client base, creating a synergistic effect [11]. Group 4: Industry Context - The restructuring is part of a broader trend in the securities industry, with several firms pursuing mergers to enhance competitiveness and achieve scale, as highlighted by recent activities in the sector [12]. - Regulatory support is expected to continue fostering mergers and acquisitions in the industry, with a focus on creating leading firms with significant international influence [12][13].

Group 1 - The securities industry has significant incremental business opportunities, with leading brokerages expected to enhance their strength through mergers and acquisitions and increased leverage, while smaller firms may receive more policy support for differentiated development [1][2] - The industry landscape is likely to optimize rapidly under the guidance of differentiated and specialized development, with a focus on resource integration and the use of M&A mechanisms by leading firms [1][2] - Regulatory policies will strengthen differentiated supervision, allowing for more flexibility for quality institutions while promoting specialized development for smaller and foreign brokerages [1][2] Group 2 - Since the introduction of policies supporting leading institutions through M&A and organizational innovation, there has been a noticeable increase in M&A activities among top firms, which is expected to accelerate further [2] - Domestic leading brokerages currently have lower leverage ratios compared to their international counterparts, and easing leverage restrictions could enhance their capital utilization and return on equity (ROE) [2] - The industry is expected to see more policy support for differentiated and specialized development for smaller brokerages [2] Group 3 - The securities industry is encouraged to innovate financial products, services, and organizational structures while maintaining risk control, to better meet the needs of various investors [3] - There is a focus on enhancing cross-border financial services and promoting internationalization, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative [3] - The potential business space for the securities industry is vast, with expectations for more measures to support innovation and internationalization, which could catalyze performance growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent positive performance of the brokerage sector, with several stocks showing gains and significant inflows into the brokerage ETF [1][7] - The brokerage ETF (512000) has seen a net inflow of 1.021 billion yuan over the past five days, leading among 14 similar ETFs [1][7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), which is expected to enhance the efficiency of capital markets in serving the real economy [3][9] Group 2 - The merger and acquisition activities in the securities industry are accelerating, with China International Capital Corporation planning to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap [3][9] - The securities industry is experiencing improved market conditions and high trading activity, benefiting from a new round of capital market reforms, which suggests significant growth potential for brokerages [3][9] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected to be 1.2x for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating for the sector [3][9] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the brokerage index tracked by the ETF include prominent firms such as Eastmoney, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [4][10] - The ETF and its linked fund are designed to passively track the performance of the securities company index, indicating a broad representation of the sector [4][10]

Market Overview - On the last trading day of November, A-shares ended with a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.7% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 125.4 billion yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest turnover since August 4, with three consecutive days of declining turnover [1] Index Performance - In November, the A-share market continued to experience fluctuations and corrections, with the growth style indices suffering the most. The STAR 50, ChiNext Index, and CSI 500 fell by 6.24%, 4.23%, and 4.08% respectively [1][2] - The CSI A500 and CSI 300 indices decreased by 2.55% and 2.46% respectively [1] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance for November, the top-performing industries included comprehensive, banking, textile and apparel, and petroleum and petrochemicals, while the worst-performing sectors were computer, automotive, electronics, and non-bank financials [4][5] - The comprehensive sector saw a rise of 4.07%, banking increased by 2.99%, textile and apparel rose by 2.95%, and petroleum and petrochemicals grew by 2.90% [5] ETF Trends - The "Global Vision, Betting on China" top ten core ETFs experienced a decline of 2.98% in November, but recorded a year-to-date increase of 29.53%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14 percentage points [8] - The A500 ETF (512050) saw a weekly increase of 2.15% and a monthly decline of 2.73%, with continuous net inflows, totaling 5.84 billion yuan on the previous day and 23.53 billion yuan over the past 20 days [8][10] - The securities-themed ETFs collectively saw a net inflow of 67.79 billion yuan in November, with a year-to-date net inflow of 902 billion yuan [19] Policy and Economic Outlook - The implementation plan issued by six departments aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, with a target to optimize the supply structure by 2027 and establish a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [15][16] - The focus on boosting consumption has been highlighted as a primary task for economic work in 2025, with various policies being developed to support this goal [16] Securities Industry Insights - The securities industry is expected to see accelerated mergers and acquisitions, enhancing overall competitiveness and moving towards the goal of building a first-class investment bank [20] - The performance of listed securities firms showed significant improvement in the first three quarters of 2025, with total operating income reaching 419.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.55% [20][21]

Core Insights - The securities industry in China is experiencing an acceleration in mergers and acquisitions, leading to a new pattern of "top firms optimizing and strengthening" alongside "small and medium-sized firms developing unique characteristics" [1] - The current "window period" for mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese securities sector presents opportunities not only for scale expansion but also for capital enhancement, capability restructuring, and international advancement [1] Industry Overview - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the Securities Company Index (399975), which selects listed companies involved in securities brokerage, underwriting, and proprietary trading from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of the securities industry in China and covers major securities companies in the A-share market, demonstrating high industry representativeness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of an Indonesian securities company by a leading domestic brokerage's overseas subsidiary marks a significant step in the expansion of Chinese brokerages in Southeast Asia, reflecting a trend of increased internationalization in the industry as China's capital markets continue to open up [1][3]. Group 1: Overseas Expansion - Chinese brokerages have established 38 overseas primary subsidiaries, which have shown steady growth in total and net assets [5]. - The focus on strategic emerging industries has enabled Chinese brokerages to assist numerous companies in completing overseas listings, with 64 companies listed in Hong Kong in 2024, raising HKD 86.4 billion, and 65 companies in the first nine months of 2025, raising HKD 187.4 billion [5]. Group 2: Cross-Border Connectivity - Chinese brokerages play a crucial role in capital market connectivity, facilitating international investors' participation in domestic markets and aiding domestic capital in global asset allocation [6]. Group 3: International Business Growth - In the first half of 2025, 14 out of 16 surveyed brokerages reported year-on-year growth in international business revenue, with the leading firm achieving over 800% growth [8]. - The proportion of international business revenue has increased for 12 brokerages, with the top firm exceeding 30% [8]. Group 4: Industry Consolidation - The Chinese securities industry is undergoing significant consolidation, with a notable merger involving a leading brokerage and two others, indicating a trend towards increased market concentration [11]. - The internationalization of brokerages is being driven by the need to acquire local channels and compliance qualifications through overseas acquisitions [11]. - The strong performance of the brokerage sector is reflected in a 62.38% year-on-year increase in net profit for 42 listed brokerages in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling CNY 169.05 billion [11].