中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标仍将持续定 调板块未来走向，流动性适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素共 同推动证券板块景气度上行，中长期资金扩容预期进一步增强基本面改善预期。截至2025年9月12日， 证券板块PB估值1.49x，处于2010以来30.1%分位，仍然具备较高安全边际，板块配置正当时。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 市场集中度进一步提升，行业马太效应加剧。2025H1，行业净利润CR5达到45.88%，同比提升6.81pct; 净利润CR10达到67.44%，同比提升9.04pct，行业利润向头部集中。头部券商通过综合化经营扩大竞争 优势，并在衍生品、跨境业务等领域建立壁垒;中小券商聚焦区域特色或细分赛道，通过高弹性业务实 现突围。此外，外资券商加速布局中国市场。凭借在财富管理、跨境展业等领域具备先进的国际视野和 竞争优势，倒逼中资机构提升专业能力与服务效率。 盈利能力步入上行通道，资本管理持续优化 市场边际向好推动行业盈利能力显著改善。2025H1，行业年化ROE为7.07%，同比提升1.63个百分点;杠 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongyuan Securities' stock price closed at 4.49 yuan on July 30, down 1.54% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 810,329 hands and a transaction amount of 365 million yuan [1] - Zhongyuan Securities is a comprehensive securities company based in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, offering services in securities brokerage, investment banking, and asset management [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The internationalization process of the brokerage industry is accelerating, with several firms expanding overseas through listings in Hong Kong or increasing capital in their Hong Kong subsidiaries [1] - Currently, 13 mainland brokerage firms have achieved "A+H" dual listings, with Zhongyuan Securities being one of them [1] - In 2024, some leading brokerages are expected to see significant growth in international business revenue, with CITIC Securities reporting a 116% year-on-year increase in net profit from international operations [1] Group 3: Market Activity - On July 30, Zhongyuan Securities experienced a net outflow of 13.864 million yuan in principal funds, indicating a trend of net outflow for the day [2]

Group 1 - As of July 30, 2025, the stock price of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) closed at 37.08 yuan, down by 0.38 yuan or 1.01% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 233,179 lots, with a total transaction amount of 869 million yuan [1] - CICC is a leading investment bank in China, primarily engaged in investment banking, equity business, fixed income, wealth management, and investment management [1] Group 2 - The internationalization process of the brokerage industry has accelerated, with several brokerages expanding their international business through listings in Hong Kong or increasing capital in their Hong Kong subsidiaries [1] - Currently, 13 mainland brokerages have achieved "A+H" dual listings, with CICC being one of them [1] - In 2024, CITIC Securities' international business generated revenue of 2.26 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 41%, indicating a positive trend in the development of brokerage international business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Shouchao Securities' plan to list in Hong Kong marks a significant step in the trend of Chinese brokerages pursuing internationalization and capital enhancement through overseas listings [1][2]. Group 1: Hong Kong Listing and Internationalization - Shouchao Securities is expected to become the 14th brokerage to achieve "A+H" share listing, joining a list of 13 existing brokerages that have already listed in both mainland China and Hong Kong [2]. - The move to list in Hong Kong is seen as a way for brokerages to enhance their capital strength, support cross-border operations, and improve international brand recognition [1][2]. - The Hong Kong market is characterized by a mature financing mechanism and an international investor structure, making it a key area for mainland financial institutions to expand their overseas presence [1]. Group 2: Capital Injection and Business Expansion - Several brokerages have been increasing their capital in Hong Kong subsidiaries, with notable examples including Guangfa Securities and Xibu Securities, which have injected significant amounts into their Hong Kong operations [3]. - The primary purpose of these capital increases is to bolster cross-border business capital, expand investment banking operations, and enhance derivatives capabilities [3][4]. - The trend indicates that brokerages are not only focusing on traditional services like IPOs and bond issuance but are also expanding into comprehensive services, including cross-border funds and structured products [4]. Group 3: Growth of International Business - Despite the current low proportion of international business revenue among brokerages, there is a clear upward trend, with expectations that it will become a crucial area for performance improvement [5]. - For instance, Citic Securities reported a significant increase in international revenue, achieving $2.26 billion in revenue and $530 million in net profit in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 41% and 116% respectively [5]. - Analysts suggest that international business will be a key battleground for brokerages, especially as traditional commission rates decline and domestic asset management faces challenges [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shouchao Securities plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy amid a booming Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. - As of July 26, Shouchao Securities has officially announced its intention to become the 14th mainland broker to achieve "A+H" dual listing, which is expected to inject new vitality into the market [1][4]. - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 27.4% year-to-date, creating favorable conditions for mainland brokers to consider overseas listings [1][4]. Group 2 - Shouchao Securities aims to enhance its capital strength and overall competitiveness through the H-share listing, while also seeking to better integrate international resources and expand its global influence [4][6]. - The company has engaged Ernst & Young Hong Kong as its listing audit firm to support the H-share listing process, indicating a serious commitment to its internationalization efforts [4]. - The Hong Kong market has seen a significant increase in equity financing, with a total of 291.64 billion yuan raised as of July 21, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 288.75% [4]. Group 3 - Since its A-share debut on December 22, 2022, Shouchao Securities has shown stable performance, but it faced a decline in Q1 2025, prompting the need for new growth avenues [5][6]. - In 2024, the company reported impressive financial results with operating revenue of 2.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.49%, and a net profit of 985 million yuan, up 40.49% [6]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue drop of 23.34% to 432 million yuan and a net profit decline of 31.42% to 151 million yuan, highlighting the urgency of its decision to pursue a Hong Kong listing [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the acceleration of internationalization among Chinese securities firms, particularly in response to the dual opening of capital markets and the expansion of cross-border investment channels [1][3] - Western Securities has announced plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong, named "Western Securities International Financial Holdings Limited," to meet strategic development needs and serve cross-border investment demands [1] - The establishment of the Hong Kong subsidiary is seen as a move to create an international business platform and support the sustainable and comprehensive development of the company [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong market is becoming a preferred choice for Chinese securities firms to expand their international business, with major firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities already having a strong presence [1] - Analysts believe that the recovery of the Hong Kong stock market is driving Chinese securities firms to expand their service offerings and capture market share [2][3] - The ongoing reforms in the Hong Kong IPO process and the trend of Chinese concept stocks returning to the market are expected to enhance the role of Hong Kong as a bridge between domestic and international capital markets [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a positive outlook for growth in this industry [2]. Core Insights - Guotai Junan International has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, marking a significant step for Chinese brokerages in international markets [2][3]. - The upgrade allows clients to trade cryptocurrencies and stablecoins directly on the Guotai Junan platform, introducing a new revenue stream for the brokerage [2]. - The report anticipates that the approval of the stablecoin regulation in 2025 will further enhance Hong Kong's position as a "virtual asset hub," potentially leading to substantial growth for Guotai Junan International [2]. - Currently, 40 brokerages have been approved to conduct virtual asset trading, with expectations that more Chinese brokerages will enter this market [2][4]. - The report highlights three investment themes: 1) Stronger institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, recommending stocks like GF Securities and CITIC Securities; 2) Brokerages with high earnings elasticity, recommending East Money and China Merchants Securities; 3) Firms with strong international business capabilities, recommending China Galaxy and CICC [2]. Summary by Sections Virtual Asset Trading Services - Guotai Junan International's upgrade to provide virtual asset trading services is a pivotal development, allowing for direct trading of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins [2]. - The SFC has been progressively establishing a regulatory framework for virtual assets since 2018, adapting existing financial licenses to include virtual asset-related businesses [2]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Hong Kong virtual asset market is evolving, with a roadmap set by the SFC to simplify market entry and introduce innovative investment products [2]. - The anticipated growth in the stablecoin market is expected to provide significant incremental business for Guotai Junan International [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines within the brokerage sector, highlighting the potential for growth and profitability as the market for virtual assets expands [2].

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities plans to invest 1 billion RMB to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong, aiming to enhance its international business and meet cross-border financing needs [3][5]. Company Strategy - The establishment of the Hong Kong subsidiary is part of the company's strategy to adapt to the dual opening of capital markets and to serve the cross-border investment needs of the real economy [3]. - The company aims to create an international business platform to support its sustainable and comprehensive development [3]. Recent Developments - In August 2024, Western Securities had just dissolved its international business department, and within 10 months, it is now planning to set up a Hong Kong subsidiary [2][4]. - The company has faced scrutiny regarding its investment banking income and declining market share in IPO underwriting, particularly due to personnel turnover [2][9]. Market Context - The Chinese securities industry has established 35 subsidiaries in Hong Kong, with a significant market share in financing activities [6]. - Major domestic securities firms have reported strong growth in their international business, with some achieving over 40% year-on-year revenue growth [6]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the Hong Kong market is intensifying, with both domestic and foreign firms vying for market share [7]. - The establishment of the Hong Kong subsidiary reflects a trend of smaller securities firms accelerating their internationalization efforts [7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Western Securities reported a revenue of 6.712 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.64% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 20.38% [9]. - The company's revenue in Q1 2025 saw a significant decline of 23.75% year-on-year, although net profit increased by 48.33% [9]. Operational Challenges - The company faces challenges in maintaining its investment banking team, with a turnover rate of 18.6%, which is higher than the industry average [10]. - The company is actively pursuing the acquisition of Guorong Securities, which is currently under regulatory review [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international business capability has become a crucial indicator of the comprehensive competitiveness of securities firms, with firms that do not engage in international business at risk of losing their core competitiveness in an increasingly competitive industry [1][2]. Group 1: International Business Development - Western Securities announced plans to invest the equivalent of 1 billion RMB to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong, named "Western Securities International Financial Holdings Limited," to enhance its international business development [1]. - The establishment of the Hong Kong subsidiary aims to meet the strategic development needs of the company, align with the trend of capital market opening, and serve the cross-border financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - Leading securities firms are adopting comprehensive "going global" strategies, leveraging domestic client resources to capture market share, and enhancing core capabilities through mergers or building overseas teams [2][3]. - Mid-sized securities firms are taking a more cautious approach, focusing on serving cross-border client needs and establishing minimal overseas entities to connect with domestic operations [2]. Group 3: Industry Landscape - The international business of mid-sized securities firms is still in the exploratory phase, facing challenges due to a lack of local client base and brand reputation [3]. - Stronger securities firms are experiencing significant growth in their international subsidiaries, with increased business scale and market share, supported by substantial capital injections from their parent companies [3][4]. Group 4: Performance and Growth Drivers - The international business of securities firms is entering a harvest phase, with international subsidiaries expanding their balance sheets and contributing increasingly to overall performance [4]. - The current trend in the internationalization of Chinese securities firms involves both organic growth and external mergers, transitioning from traditional brokerage services to a comprehensive financial system [4].

Core Summary - In 2025, the securities industry is expected to experience a dual increase in profitability and valuation due to favorable policies and liquidity support, with a focus on the improvement of brokerage services, proprietary asset allocation, and international business as sources of performance differentiation [4][5] Group 1: Policy and Liquidity Support - The major highlight for the securities sector in 2025 is the favorable policies and liquidity support, particularly the implementation of the "Plan to Promote Long-term Funds into the Market," which sets clear investment scale and ratio requirements for public funds, insurance funds, and pension funds [4][12] - The People's Bank of China implemented a "combination punch" of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in May 2025, which is expected to drive residents' deposits and bank wealth management products towards equity assets [4][34] Group 2: Wealth Management - The trend of residents moving their deposits to equity assets is accelerating, supported by the new public fund regulations and the full rollout of the personal pension system, which is expected to bring incremental investments to public funds [4][32] - The public fund fee structure is being reformed to focus on investor returns, aiming to enhance the investment value and attract more long-term capital into the market [4][35] Group 3: Proprietary Business - The proprietary investment performance is expected to be differentiated due to regulatory restrictions on derivatives and limited space for bond market allocation, with equity allocation becoming the core of proprietary performance [4][21] - The securities firms are encouraged to increase their allocation to high-quality equity assets, while the fixed income segment is expected to shift from a "lying win" strategy to a more diversified "fixed income+" investment approach [4][5] Group 4: International Business - The internationalization of securities firms is seen as an inevitable trend, with large firms accelerating their global market penetration, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, driven by the demand for cross-border financing and mergers [4][5] - The regulatory environment is being optimized to create a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment, facilitating the expansion of international business for securities firms [4][5] Group 5: Investment Analysis - The overall outlook for the securities sector is positive, with expectations of profitability and valuation increases, driven by differentiated competition in proprietary investment, wealth management, and international expansion [4][5] - Recommended investment targets include leading firms with strong comprehensive capabilities, firms with significant earnings elasticity, and those with robust international business competitiveness [4][5]