证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 广发证券（000776） 广发拟配售 H 股及发行可转债，募资用于拓 展国际业务 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 23,300 | 27,199 | 34,577 | 39,278 | 44,134 | | 同比（%） | -7.29% | 16.74% | 27.13% | 13.60% | 12.36% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,978 | 9,637 | 14,776 | 17,153 | 19,645 | | 同比（%） | -12.00% | 38.11% | 53.32% | 16.09% | 14.53% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.92 | 1.26 | 1.94 | 2.25 | 2.58 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 25.30 | 18.32 | 11.95 | 10.29 | 8.98 | [Table ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for the Chinese securities industry, focusing on deepening functional positioning and high-quality development, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions, international expansion, and technological innovation, particularly through AI applications [1][2]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The year marks a critical phase for mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, with major firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities merging to form Guotai Haitong Securities, and other significant consolidations such as Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Guotai Haitong leading in net profit, and Guolian Minsheng's ranking improving significantly from around 40th to the top 20 [3]. - New merger cases are emerging, such as CICC's plan to merge with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, potentially creating a new entity with over 1 trillion yuan in total assets [3]. Industry Integration Logic - Two main integration strategies are evident: resource consolidation under the same actual controller and market-driven mergers aimed at enhancing national influence [4]. - Analysts suggest that resource integration may become the most important way for securities firms to quickly enhance scale and comprehensive strength [4]. Classification Evaluation Reform - A significant revision of the classification evaluation for securities firms is underway, emphasizing the need for firms to enhance their functional roles and professional capabilities [5][6]. - The new regulations aim to shift focus from revenue expansion to improving operational efficiency and professional skills, thereby enhancing overall industry competitiveness [5]. Margin Trading Market - The margin trading market is heating up, with a record balance of 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a 36.6% increase from the beginning of the year [7]. - Several firms have raised their margin trading limits, and a price war on interest rates has begun, with some firms offering rates below 4% [8][9]. Investment Banking and Technology - The securities industry is adapting to a new era of "hard technology," with reforms aimed at providing more inclusive financing paths for tech companies [10][11]. - Securities firms are establishing research institutes focused on emerging industries and enhancing their service capabilities through collaboration and talent development [11]. AI Integration - The adoption of AI technologies is rapidly transforming the industry, with applications expanding across various business functions, significantly improving efficiency [12][13]. - Firms are moving towards an "AI-native" model, enhancing client engagement and operational management through AI tools [12]. Internationalization of Securities Firms - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is accelerating, with a focus on comprehensive service capabilities and participation in global market competition [14][15]. - This trend is driven by the growing demand for cross-border services and the strategic goal of building first-class investment banks [14]. Asset Management Transformation - The public offering process for asset management is at a turning point, with firms reassessing their positioning in the broader asset management landscape [16][17]. - The industry is witnessing a decline in the rush for public fund licenses, with many firms withdrawing applications, indicating a shift in focus towards existing business optimization [16]. Impact of Fund Fee Reforms - The implementation of public fund fee reforms is pushing securities firms to enhance their research and wealth management capabilities, with a notable decline in commission revenues [18]. - Firms are transitioning towards a buyer advisory model, focusing on asset management and providing comprehensive solutions rather than merely selling products [18]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory signals indicate a potential easing of capital requirements for high-quality institutions, aimed at improving capital utilization efficiency [19]. - Analysts suggest that enhancing leverage and capital efficiency could drive growth in high-value capital-intensive businesses [19]. Name Changes Reflecting Strategic Shifts - A wave of name changes among securities firms signifies strategic realignments and resource restructuring following mergers and acquisitions [20][21]. - These changes reflect deeper integration and the influence of new stakeholders, indicating a shift in strategic focus and operational capabilities [20].

12月26日，券商板块走势活跃，400亿顶流券商ETF（512000）场内价格一度上探1.89%，收涨0.86%，日线3连阳，向上收复 半年线，全天成交额18.3亿元，环比放量超8亿。 今年以来，券商板块整体表现不佳，作为"牛市旗手"，券商ETF（512000）跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数年内仅微涨3.96%， 表现明显落后于大盘，与高增业绩显著背离，滞涨矛盾突出。同期板块市净率估值PB（LF）为1.5倍，仅位于近10年41.57%分 位点的中低水平。分析认为，主因或系前两年的悲观情绪蔓延以及板块缺少独立催化。 | 序号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 本年初 [区间尾日] 2025-12-26 | | | | | | [单位] % | | | 399975.SZ | | 证券公司 | | 3.9641 | | 2 | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | | 18.2565 | | 3 399001.SZ | | 深证成指 | | 30.6232 | | 4 399006.SZ | | 创业板指 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：九州商业观察 在券商行业分化加剧的2025年，招商证券正经历一场"瘦身"与"拓业"并行的转型。上半年，公司员工总 数减少1292人，关键管理人员报酬下降超三成，而掌舵者、董事长霍达则身兼数职，密集推进业务拓展 与国际化布局，在行业竞争中寻求新的增长动能。 作为行业Top10券商，招商证券2025年的发展轨迹充满张力。前三季度，公司实现营业收入182.44亿 元，同比增长27.8%，归母净利润88.71亿元，同比增长24.1%，营收净利双双录得增长。但在行业集体 高增的背景下，这一成绩略显逊色——头部券商中多数机构营收净利增幅超30%，国泰海通、中金公司 等更是实现净利润翻倍增长，招商证券的追赶压力不言而喻。 规模层面的波动更显转型紧迫性。上半年，公司资产总额一度缩水至6728.60亿元，较2024年末减少 483.01亿元，降幅达6.70%。尽管三季度末总资产回升至7456.32亿元，同比增长3.39%，但与中信证券 突破2万亿元的规模相比，差距依然明显。 在业绩承压与行业转型的双重背景下，招商证券开启了人员结构优化。截至2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that multiple Chinese securities firms are actively increasing capital for their subsidiaries to enhance capital strength, market competitiveness, and service capabilities for the real economy [1][2][3] - The international business is becoming a new growth engine for securities firms, with firms like China Merchants Securities planning to inject up to 90 billion HKD into its international subsidiary, aiming to improve global trading and service capabilities [2][3] - In 2024, the international subsidiary of China Merchants Securities reported a revenue of 1.199 billion HKD and a net profit of 457 million HKD, with client asset management reaching 246.923 billion HKD, reflecting a 14.52% growth from the end of 2024 [2] Group 2 - Securities firms are also focusing on enhancing their futures and alternative investment subsidiaries to better serve the real economy, with East Wu Securities planning to invest 403 million CNY to increase the net capital of its futures subsidiary [3][4] - The registered capital of East Wu Futures will increase from 1.032 billion CNY to 1.532 billion CNY following the capital injection, which is part of the firm's strategy to optimize its business structure and enhance service capabilities [4] - The alternative investment subsidiaries are seen as crucial for supporting technological innovation, with firms like Guohai Securities announcing a 500 million CNY capital increase for its alternative investment subsidiary to strengthen its equity investment business [4]

纵深推进国际化 当前，海外业务正逐渐成为驱动券商业绩增长的新引擎，中资券商竞相加速布局海外市场，通过对国际 子公司增资等方式，提升国际市场竞争力。12月8日晚间，招商证券发布公告称，董事会审议同意招证 国际向其全资子公司分次增资不超过90亿港元。首次增资对象为招商证券（香港）有限公司，增资规模 不超过40亿港元。 招商证券表示，公司以招证国际为核心推进海外业务，持续提升环球交易、综合服务以及产品配置能 力。近年来，国际业务收入日益成为券商营收的重要支撑。2024年，招证国际实现营业收入11.99亿港 元、净利润4.57亿港元。截至2025年6月末，招证国际托管客户资产规模达2469.23亿港元，较2024年末 增长14.52%。 除招商证券外，今年以来，多家券商均披露了对国际子公司增资相关事项。10月份，山西证券宣布，为 推动该公司跨境一体化发展，增强国际化经营能力，拟对子公司山证国际增资10亿港元；同月，东兴证 券向在港子公司东兴香港增资3亿港元。8月份，中信建投也披露，拟对子公司中信建投国际增资15亿港 元（或等值人民币）。 对此，深圳市前海排排网基金销售有限责任公司研究总监刘有华对《证券日报》记者表示： ...

Group 1 - The core announcement from China Merchants Securities is the approval for its wholly-owned subsidiary, China Merchants Securities International, to increase capital by up to 9 billion HKD, with an initial injection of 4 billion HKD into its subsidiary, China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) [1] - China Merchants Securities International reported a significant growth in performance for the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 477 million HKD and a net profit of 128 million HKD [4][6] - The asset management scale of China Merchants Securities International increased to 17.31 billion HKD, reflecting a substantial rise of 62.91% compared to the end of the previous year [4] Group 2 - Several brokerage firms have increased their investments in Hong Kong subsidiaries this year, with China Merchants Securities' 9 billion HKD capital increase being the largest in the industry [7] - The internationalization of Chinese brokerage firms has created a tiered structure, with leading firms like CICC, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities showing significant contributions from international business [7][11] - The profitability of major overseas subsidiaries has seen remarkable growth, with many firms reporting net profit increases exceeding 160%, driven by an active Hong Kong stock market and rising cross-border financing demands [10][11]

点评：招商证券此次通过招证国际大手笔增资旗下国际业务子公司，凸显其加速国际化布局的战略意 图，首期40亿港元注资将显著增强香港子公司资本实力，为其业务扩张提供支撑。这一举动或引发市场 对头部券商海外业务竞争力的重新评估，证券板块国际化逻辑或将强化。在行业竞争加剧背景下，资本 实力雄厚的券商有望通过持续投入获取更多市场份额，行业集中度可能进一步提升。此举亦反映中资金 融机构对港股市场前景的乐观态度，或为券商板块带来结构性机会。 Wind数据显示，截至12月7日，2025年以来已有136家公募基金公司启动自购，合计自购次数达8400 次。从不同类型的基金来看，今年以来基金公司净申购股票型基金22.62亿元、混合型基金19.54亿元、 债券型基金42.12亿元。从基金公司维度来看，Wind数据显示，截至12月7日，国泰基金今年以来已自购 782次，是自购次数最多的基金公司；景顺长城基金自购607次居次席；中欧基金、泓德基金紧随其后， 自购次数均超过500次。从今年以来各家公司的净申购金额（所有类型基金）来看，招商证券资管净申 购46.94亿元，景顺长城基金净申购27.74亿元，工银瑞信基金净申购17.01亿元。 点 ...

编者按： 随着中国资本市场双向开放向纵深推进，中资券商化身"金融航海家"，驶向更广阔的全球市场。它们以跨 境投行连接东西，用财富管理服务民生，足迹遍布香港中环、伦敦金融城和纽约华尔街等金融枢纽，在国 际资本市场发出"中国声音"。证券时报携手中国证券业协会推出"券商'出海'进行时"栏目，全景展现中资 券商从合规经营到本土化融合、从跟跑到领跑的心路历程——诠释中国资本市场如何从"参与者"蜕变 为"规则制定者"，在开放浪潮中书写高质量发展新篇章。本文为专栏第四篇，敬请垂注！ "纵观全球投行发展史，国际化是成就一流投行必由之路。"近日，国联民生证券总裁葛小波接受证券时报记 者采访时如是说。 葛小波表示，当前的中国企业出海，已从单纯的市场拓展升级为参与全球治理、构建新型国际关系。作为服务 实体经济的金融中介，证券公司的国际化发展不仅关乎行业自身竞争力的提升，更是中国金融体系融入全球、 贡献中国智慧的关键一环。 出海是建设一流投行必然路径 葛小波认为，券业出海是响应国家金融强国战略的核心举措，也是建设一流投行的必然路径。要真正形成具有 全球影响力的一流投行，关键在于构建多层次、有竞争力的行业金字塔结构——顶端是两三家综合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is essential for enhancing industry competitiveness and integrating China's financial system into the global market [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Internationalization - The internationalization of the securities industry is a core initiative responding to the national financial power strategy and is a necessary path for building a first-class investment bank [2]. - The globalization needs of Chinese enterprises create a service blue ocean for domestic securities firms, leading to diversified financial demands such as cross-border mergers and acquisitions, overseas listings, and global bond issuance [2]. - China's capital market's dual opening is deepening, providing policy channels for the internationalization of securities firms, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road and global development initiatives [2]. Group 2: Successful Models of Foreign Investment Banks - Three mature development models of foreign investment banks are identified: 1. Project-driven model represented by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, focusing on M&A, IPOs, and structured financing [3]. 2. Comprehensive universal bank model represented by Citigroup and HSBC, integrating commercial banking with investment banking [3]. 3. Boutique investment bank model represented by Evercore and Lazard, specializing in specific sectors or services [3]. Group 3: Strategies for Chinese Securities Firms - Chinese securities firms should leverage international financing tools and acquisition opportunities while maintaining a focus on serving the real economy [4]. - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms requires a differentiated development path based on national conditions and advantages, avoiding simple imitation of international peers [4]. - Key strategies include aligning with the outbound expansion of Chinese industries, providing differentiated global asset allocation advice, and building a composite competitive advantage through technology and finance [4]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations for Internationalization - To build a financial powerhouse, a conducive ecosystem for internationalization must be established, involving policy, academia, industry, and media [5]. - Recommendations include improving top-level design for outbound policies, optimizing the policy environment for overseas institutions, and encouraging overseas acquisitions to enhance competitiveness [5].