Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the long-term outlook for the commodity market, emphasizing the ongoing down cycles in real estate and coal sectors, which are expected to continue impacting commodity demand negatively [5][7][10]. - The real estate market is underperforming due to high inventory levels, and stabilization requires either market-driven solutions or policy interventions. Current housing price pressures indicate that recovery will take time [10][13]. - The construction industry, which includes non-real estate projects, is also expected to decline, further pressuring demand for related commodities. The construction area is projected to continue decreasing until the end of 2027 [11][13]. Group 2 - Coal prices have returned to levels seen between 2016 and 2020, primarily due to increased supply and competition from renewable energy sources. The demand for coal is expected to remain weak as renewable energy continues to grow [16][18]. - The article highlights that while coal prices are at marginal cost levels, a rebound is possible, but a significant reversal in the downtrend is unlikely. This indicates that commodities related to coal and real estate will remain in a down cycle [18][20]. - The performance of commodities linked to the dollar's credit has been strong, with gold and silver prices significantly increasing. The article discusses the potential for a weakening dollar to influence commodity prices positively in the future [20][22]. Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of U.S. fiscal policies on the dollar's strength, suggesting that high fiscal deficits will undermine dollar credibility, which could lead to a favorable environment for commodities like gold [21][24]. - Gold is identified as a leading indicator for other commodities, with its price movements often preceding changes in the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index by about a year [24][27]. - The relationship between the dollar cycle and emerging market growth is emphasized, indicating that a weaker dollar could lead to increased demand for commodities from emerging markets, which are the primary growth drivers for commodity demand [30][33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets [30]. Core Views - The "Black Monday" event is attributed to three main reasons: loosening of the tech narrative, tariff shocks affecting risk appetite, and concerns over fiscal contraction leading to recession fears [1][8]. - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market, represented by risk assets, has not yet reached a major turning point, as three cycles—technology, credit, and fiscal—are still in play, with the technology cycle being the most decisive [1][17]. - The emergence of Deepseek indicates that China may challenge the U.S. "technological advantage," leading to a systematic revaluation of Chinese assets and a downward adjustment of U.S. assets [1]. Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. Asset Volatility - Since the Spring Festival, the pricing of U.S. and Chinese assets has begun to reverse, challenging the previous "strong U.S. stock-strong dollar-weak U.S. bonds" narrative [6]. - The Nasdaq index has experienced a significant decline, erasing all gains since Trump's election and reaching lows not seen since mid-2024 [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields have also dropped significantly, with the 10-year yield falling from a high of 4.9% to around 4.2%, and the 2-year yield dropping below 4% [6][7]. Section 2: Reasons for U.S. Asset Adjustment - The report identifies three key reasons for the current adjustment in U.S. assets: the weakening tech narrative, tariff impacts leading to reduced risk appetite, and fiscal contraction raising recession concerns [8]. - The introduction of tariffs under Trump's administration has shifted market perceptions from inflation effects to potential recession effects, leading to an overall reduction in risk appetite [8]. - High interest rates are limiting credit expansion, with signs of weakening demand related to private sector credit [8]. Section 3: Global Technology Cycle and Dollar Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. technology cycle, which is still expanding, indicating that the current adjustment in U.S. assets does not resemble the 2001 internet bubble burst but rather the 2024 recession narrative [12][21]. - The ongoing AI-driven industrial revolution is crucial for the U.S., as it allows the economy to transcend global demand, impacting asset pricing and the flow of global capital [12][17]. - The report raises two critical questions post-"Black Monday": whether the U.S. economy is truly facing a recession and if the global technology cycle and dollar trends are reversing [12]. Section 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that there may be rebound opportunities for U.S. stocks following the recent volatility, with potential upward movement in Treasury yields and a short-term decline in the dollar index [18][21]. - The analysis indicates that the current phase of the technology cycle is still in its early stages, with capital expenditures accelerating, which could lead to a favorable environment for risk assets [21].