本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 宏观经济|专题报告 "大美丽法案"市场冲击或有限 海外机记 20250707 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 | | Alley John A | | --- | --- | | 20250707 | 王仲尧 | | 证券分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongvao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号: S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会跑昭:BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeging@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860524100001 | | 孙舍霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号: S0860515070001 | | 曹靖俯 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | ...

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]

以下文章来源于曾宁大宗商品研究 ，作者曾宁 曾宁大宗商品研究 . 投资是一个系统 文 | 曾宁 来源 | 曾宁大宗商品研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文为中信期货研究所副所长曾宁在2025年中信期货年中策略会的主题发言部分核心观点摘要，本篇是2023年年中策略会发言纪要《"二 鲸落"，万物落——基于中长视角的大宗商品市场展望》的下篇。 风险提示：本文为结合历史规律及当下基本面对未来中长期市场的逻辑推演，市场短期走势影响复杂，请审慎阅读。 这是我第二次在策略会上用"鲸落"这个词，这是一个时隔两年的回旋镖，上一次是两年前的2023年年中策略会。当时我用了"二鲸落万物 落"来总结对于大宗商品市场未来几年的整体看法，当时我们认为随着地产已成明日黄花，以及随着煤炭供应进入宽松周期，大宗商品成本将 下移，大宗商品可能重现2011-2015年的走势。 我们也确实看到，过去两年，煤电系的商品指数，以及地产链的商品指数，表现是远远弱于中信期货商品指数的，这部分商品确实走出了类 似2011-2015年的市场走势，我们可能都关心这次的下跌周期什么时候结束？新的上行周期可能什么时候到来，那么我今天试图去解答一下这 两 ...