AI 成为全球主要市场驱动力，尤其在美股、A 股、港股及日韩股市，AI 产业链如芯片、存储、电力、有色金属等显著推动市场上涨。港股 AI 板 块估值重估提振情绪，但恒生科技指数自高点回调 15%-20%，短期波 动风险犹存。 美国经济增长强劲，三季度 GDP 环比年化增长 4.3%，名义增速超 8%，AI 贡献近一个百分点。消费韧性强劲，但就业市场疲软，失业率 若升至 4.8%将触发衰退担忧。预计美国信用周期将在 2026 年修复， 或走向过热。 特朗普政策通过关税影响市场节奏与情绪。超额关税初期引发恐慌，但 谈判豁免后实际税率较低，对通胀影响小。中期选举结果将影响未来两 年政策执行，共和党或失众议院控制权，影响财政支出与经济增长。 美联储降息过程犹豫不决，但适度降息对受成本压制的地产、制造业等 领域有利，且通胀未急剧上升，不会产生负面影响。新任主席鸽派观点 可能提前反映在长端利率上，为美国经济带来额外需求。 中国市场今年涨幅主要由估值驱动，创业板科技硬件板块盈利贡献较大。 未来抬升空间需盈利补充，目前估值已反映较多预期。信用周期变化是 如何布局跨年行情？20251229 摘要 隐藏主线，消费走弱因高基数效应 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：太阳投研札记 很遗憾，目前公开信息中并未找到中金公司官方发布的2025年十大预测文章或报告。网络上流传的一些 预测多来自第三方分析或自媒体总结，权威性有限。所以2025年十大预测今年先用隔壁中信证券的2025 年中国宏观与政策十大展望，我们来看一看今年是不是"中信反买，别墅靠海"。 1．经济增长目标：经济有望实现5%左右的增速，呈"U型"增长，名义与实际增速偏离收敛。 部分正确。全年GDP增速确实达到5%左右（前三季度5.2%，全年预计4.9%-5.1%），与预测一致。但是 实际增长呈"前高后低"（一季度5.4%→三季度4.8%），而非"U型"。 结论：增速目标精准命中，但增长节奏预判有误。 2．财政政策：广义财政支出增量与节奏好于上年，赤字率上调至4%，支出向产业投资、消费和民生倾 斜，10万亿化债方案缓解地方财政压力。 完全正确。政府工作报告明确2025年赤字率提高至4%（较2024年3%），赤字规模5.66万亿元 结论：M1转正和信用周期上行判断准确，但社融节奏预判有误。 5．中美关系：扰动以经济层面为主，宏观政策可对冲，中 ...

来源：中金点睛 近期，一个有意思但又让人意外的现象是：一方面，人民币持续走强迭创新高，离岸人民币兑美元汇率10月初以来升值1.3%，距离7的整数关口只有"一 步之遥"；但另一方面，股市却持续回调，尤其是原本应该对汇率和资金流向更敏感的港股市场，跌幅反而更大，恒科从10月初高点下跌15%。 历史上，汇率走势与AH两地市场都有较强的正相关性，因为汇率走强往往意味着外资流入和中国基本面向好，更不用说港股还有人民币走强折算到港币 计价EPS的额外增厚。 图表：近期，港股与人民币对美元汇率稳定的负相关性被打破 资料来源：Bloomberg， Wind，中金公司研究部 然而，近期这一规律却被"打破"了，汇率走强股市反而下跌。该如何理解这一背离，到底是汇率错了，还是股市错了？要知道，前11个月中国顺差创下 1.08万亿美元的历史记录且美联储新主席提名在即，都使得市场对于弱美元和大量顺差结汇需求共同推动下的人民币升值预期愈发强烈，如果这一结论成 立且汇率与股市的传统逻辑依然适用的话，那就意味着中国资产重估将迎来新的动力和阶段。 但细想后就不难发现，这一逻辑链条仍值得推敲，就如同近期为何背离一样，一个简单的解释是二者的驱动因素 ...

近期，一个有意思但又让人意外的现象是：一方面，人民币持续走强迭创新高，离岸人民币兑美元汇率10月初以来升值1.3%，距离7的整数关口只有"一步 之遥"；但另一方面，股市却持续回调，尤其是原本应该对汇率和资金流向更敏感的港股市场，跌幅反而更大，恒科从10月初高点下跌15%。 历史上，汇率走势与AH两地市场都有较强的正相关性， 因为汇率走强往往意味着外资流入和中国基本面向好，更不用说港股还有人民币走强折算到港币 计价EPS的额外增厚。 图表：近期，港股与人民币对美元汇率稳定的负相关性被打破 资料来源：Bloomberg， Wind，中金公司研究部 然而，近期这一规律却被"打破"了，汇率走强股市反而下跌。该如何理解这一背离，到底是汇率错了，还是股市错了？ 要知道，前11个月中国顺差创下 1.08万亿美元的历史记录且美联储新主席提名在即，都使得市场对于弱美元和大量顺差结汇需求共同推动下的人民币升值预期愈发强烈，如果这一结论成 立且汇率与股市的传统逻辑依然适用的话，那就意味着中国资产重估将迎来新的动力和阶段。 但细想后就不难发现，这一逻辑链条仍值得推敲，就如同近期为何背离一样， 一个简单的解释是二者的驱动因素完全不同， ...

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026：预 测与战略·年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定 力"。 12月19日，在"展望2026，中国资产重估进行时"对话环节，中金公司研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港 股策略分析师刘刚在总结2025年投研心得时表示，他体会比较深的是情绪和资金的蓄势，给市场三季度 带来的提振效果非常显著。但很多时候要区分短期冲力和长期趋势，在投资中选择一个更好的时间点， 降低持有的成本，持仓体验会更好。 中金公司研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策略分析师刘刚 陆玲：在更长的周期内，很大的考量就是，AI正在改变人类的各种生活方式，简单分享一下AI对你们 投研生活的影响，AI会替代吗、会抢了你们的饭碗吗？ 刘刚：关于AI泡沫这个事，我补充几点信息，再谈谈日常的工作和生活中大概的体会。第一，我觉得 泡沫这个词，我一直把它当成中性概念去看待，而不是天然地有一个负面的假定。第二，其实讨论会不 会成为泡沫，某种程度上，尤其在二级市场的角度可能也是浪费时间，泡沫形成最大的阶段恰恰是市场 涨幅最大的阶段 ...

机构普遍对权益类资产持较为乐观的态度。富国基金公开表示，沪深300指数股权风险溢价仍处于正一 倍标准差以上水平，相较持续下行的无风险利率，权益资产的风险补偿仍较可观。同时，宏观流动性支 撑仍然有利，全球主要经济体信用周期有望延续温和扩张态势，较好的流动性条件为权益与商品等资产 创造相对有利的环境。而在内需政策持续发力与外需边际企稳的共同作用下，企业盈利修复有望进一步 夯实。（上证报） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for various ETFs, particularly the 中证A500ETF, indicating strong institutional interest and a potential bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][3] - On December 17, multiple 中证A500ETF products reached record trading volumes, with 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF achieving a trading volume of 14.118 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The 中证A500ETF is recognized as a new generation of broad-based ETFs, balancing core large-cap assets with growth potential across various leading companies in niche sectors [1] Group 2 - Institutional investors are significant holders of broad-based ETFs, with over 80% of the shares in 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF held by institutions as of June 30 [1] - The trading activity of other broad-based ETFs also surged, with 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF reaching a trading volume of 5.079 billion yuan and 华夏科创50ETF at 3.948 billion yuan on the same day [2] - Since November, net subscriptions for equity ETFs have totaled 105.241 billion yuan, with a notable single-day net subscription of 15.688 billion yuan on December 16 [2] Group 3 - The 港股 innovation drug theme ETFs have also attracted significant capital, with 汇添富港股通创新药ETF and 广发港股创新药ETF seeing net subscriptions of 3.624 billion yuan and over 2.7 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Several ETFs have reached new highs in terms of shares outstanding, including 南方中证A500ETF with 25.131 billion shares and 华夏恒生科技ETF with 66.012 billion shares [3] - New fund launches have maintained high interest, with several funds exceeding 1.3 billion yuan in issuance in December, and some funds announcing early closure of their fundraising [3] Group 4 - Institutions generally hold an optimistic view on equity assets, with 富国基金 noting that the equity risk premium for the 沪深300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation [4] - Continued macro liquidity support is expected to create a favorable environment for equities and commodities, with a moderate expansion in the global credit cycle [4] - The combination of ongoing domestic demand policies and stabilizing external demand is anticipated to further solidify corporate profit recovery [4]

美联储鹰派降息并宣布扩表 400 亿美元，旨在解决回购市场流动性问题， 而非量化宽松，预计 2026 年金融流动性将恢复至缩表前水平。新主席 提名人选塞特偏鸽派，可能引导长端利率下行。 中国经济工作会议显示财政和货币政策略显弱势，总量政策重要性下降， 更关注跨周期政策。信用周期或现拐点，内需和地产偏弱，预计 2026 年整体信用周期震荡甚至走弱。 港股一季度受益于互联网资产重估表现突出，但 11 月以来落后于 A 股 和美股，受美联储降息预期、经济工作会议及产业因素影响，未来需谨 慎观察。 四季度港股跑输因流动性敏感，内外部资金面缺乏乐观因素，美联储鹰 派降息，美债利率走高，IPO 及大票解禁等微观因素也产生影响。 未来三地市场配置策略应结合流动性、基本面及结构性优势。美联储扩 表改善流动性，中国微观流动性持续呵护，但 M1 回落显示短期线性外 推不可行。 降息与经济工作会议之后 20251215 摘要 Q&A 美联储降息后市场反应与预期不符的原因是什么？未来美联储政策可能对市场 产生哪些影响？ 美联储降息后的市场反应确实与预期有所不同。首先，美债利率不降反升，这 主要是因为此次降息被解读为鹰派降息。美联储在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market compared to the US and A-share markets, highlighting the sensitivity of the Hong Kong market to liquidity changes and its structural differences, which have led to its underperformance since late November 2025 [2][6][29]. Group 1: Market Performance Analysis - Since early 2025, the markets in the US, Hong Kong, and A-shares have shown a quarterly switching pattern, with the Hong Kong market lagging behind in recent months [2][4]. - As of late November, the Hang Seng Index has declined by 2.2%, while the A-share and US markets have shown positive returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up by 5.5% and 6.9%, respectively [2][4]. - The article notes that the Hong Kong market's recent weakness is attributed to its heightened sensitivity to liquidity changes and structural differences compared to the other markets [6][29]. Group 2: Liquidity Factors - A slowdown in southbound capital inflows has been observed, with net inflows dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to below 1 billion HKD per day since late November [7]. - External liquidity has also been a concern, with recent data indicating a net outflow of 4.6 billion USD from Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, while A-shares saw a slight inflow of 0.2 billion USD [9]. - The article emphasizes that the Hong Kong market's reliance on external liquidity makes it more vulnerable to changes in investor sentiment and market conditions [6][9]. Group 3: Structural Characteristics - The Hong Kong market's structure is heavily weighted towards technology and consumer sectors, with a significant focus on new consumption and internet applications, which are more sensitive to market sentiment [16][21]. - The article highlights that the technology sector in Hong Kong is primarily application-focused, lacking the hardware component that provides more stability in the A-share market [19][21]. - Consumer spending in Hong Kong is currently under pressure due to a weak credit cycle and stagnant income expectations, making it difficult for the consumption sector to drive market performance [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the Hong Kong market's performance will depend on the recovery of the credit cycle and the ability to attract foreign investment, particularly in light of the expected liquidity conditions in the US and A-share markets [29][30]. - It is noted that the Hong Kong market may benefit from structural opportunities in sectors like AI and dividends, but these require positive catalysts to materialize [40][42]. - The overall outlook for 2026 indicates that while the US credit cycle may recover, the Chinese credit cycle faces challenges, which could further impact the Hong Kong market's performance [30][37].

Core Insights - The report highlights the shifting dynamics among the US, A-share, and Hong Kong markets, indicating a "seesaw" effect where one market's performance impacts the others. The first quarter saw a revaluation of Chinese assets led by DeepSeek, while the second quarter was characterized by strong performance in US stocks driven by AI leaders and capital expenditure growth [1][2] - Since late November, Hong Kong stocks have underperformed compared to US and A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing declines of 2.2% and 0.7% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and US indices posted gains [2][3] - The report attributes the recent weakness of Hong Kong stocks to their sensitivity to liquidity changes and structural differences, with a notable slowdown in southbound capital inflows and external liquidity support [3][4] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital inflows have decreased significantly, with a 10-day moving average dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to below 1 billion HKD, leading to concerns about potential fund outflows due to regulatory changes [3][4] - External liquidity has also been a concern, with active foreign capital flowing out of Hong Kong while inflows into A-shares have continued. The report notes that recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have contributed to a lack of external liquidity support for Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - Despite the short-term liquidity disturbances, the report suggests that the fundamental weakness in the market has amplified negative sentiment, particularly in the context of the unique industry structure of Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, primarily focused on internet applications in Hong Kong, faces concerns over an AI bubble, while A-shares benefit from a higher proportion of hardware-related stocks, providing stronger support [5][6] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong, particularly discretionary spending, is struggling due to weak domestic consumption recovery and a declining credit cycle, which limits its potential as a market driver [5][6] - The cyclical sector has shown some strength, particularly in metals, but its overall weight in the Hong Kong market is low, limiting its ability to provide substantial support [5][6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will be more sensitive to liquidity and fundamental changes, with potential for stronger performance if the credit cycle improves and risk appetite increases [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that Hong Kong stocks tend to outperform during periods of fundamental recovery and ample liquidity, but recent trends suggest a need to consider structural differences among the markets [6][7] - For 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of liquidity, fundamental conditions, and structural opportunities in determining market performance, with a focus on the potential for recovery in the US credit cycle and the challenges facing the Chinese credit cycle [9][10]