来源：滚动播报 高盛首席执行官：科技周期对资本的需求将对整体融资周期产生影响。 ...

Group 1 - The current surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, and copper, is attributed to cyclical fluctuations rather than geopolitical factors [2][3] - The global economy is experiencing a downward phase of the debt cycle and an upward phase of the technology cycle, which are driving the price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals [2][3] - The Merrill Clock is used to analyze the debt cycle, indicating that rising metal prices are characteristic of the overheating and stagflation phases, with current conditions suggesting a stagflation environment in developed economies [3] Group 2 - Upstream companies, particularly those with mining operations, benefit from rising metal prices and should focus on expanding production capacity to capitalize on cyclical opportunities [4] - Downstream companies in sectors like AI, electric equipment, and automotive manufacturing, which are significant consumers of metals, can manage rising raw material costs by securing long-term price agreements and potentially passing costs to consumers [4] - Companies affected by the debt cycle, such as those in the photovoltaic and construction industries, face challenges in passing on rising costs due to weak downstream demand and should consider controlling and reducing production capacity [5] Group 3 - Some companies are exploring material substitutions and recycling to mitigate the impact of rising metal prices, such as adopting technologies that reduce silver usage in photovoltaic applications [6] - The future of metal price trends is closely linked to the effectiveness of the technology cycle, particularly in AI infrastructure, which could influence demand for metals [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, leading to a loss of profitability for public funds in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the first loss after seven consecutive profitable quarters. However, the overall annual profit reached a record 2.6 trillion yuan, recovering losses from previous years [3][6]. Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, ending a streak of profitability. Despite this, the annual profit of 2.6 trillion yuan set a historical record, covering cumulative losses of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [6][8]. - Equity funds were the hardest hit in Q4, with a combined loss of 1.81 trillion yuan, while mixed funds also faced losses. In contrast, bond and money market funds continued to perform well, contributing significantly to overall profits [6][9]. Fund Adjustments - Public funds actively adjusted their holdings in response to market conditions, increasing their positions in technology and cyclical sectors. Notably, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding among active funds [3][11]. - The top ten heavy stocks saw minimal changes in total market value, but individual rankings shifted significantly, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng surpassing Guizhou Moutai in holdings [12][13]. Sector Focus - The electronic sector emerged as the largest area of investment for public funds, with a total market value of 741 billion yuan. The power equipment sector followed closely, while the communication sector became the third-largest focus, overtaking the pharmaceutical sector [17]. - Public funds increased their positions in oil, non-bank financials, and metals, with significant additions in stocks like Industrial Bank and China Petroleum [15][16]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while sectors like new consumption and AI show strong fundamentals, valuation concerns may arise due to market liquidity tightening. Dividend investments are expected to perform better in 2026 compared to the previous year [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market remains strong this week, with only a significant correction on Tuesday. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is still strong, and the convertible bond ETF has continued to see net inflows since New Year's Day. New bonds are generally priced high recently. In the context of the equity bull - market expectation, significant pullbacks in convertible bonds are unlikely, but the future upward trend space is limited. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, and pay attention to sub - new bonds and those whose issuers have waived the right to early redemption. Convertible bond valuations may have a slight correction under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during the adjustment [7][10]. - At the beginning of this week, the market continued its strong upward trend, with both the technology and cyclical sectors strengthening. The total market turnover approached 4 trillion yuan. There was a significant divergence in previous popular sectors, with the commercial space sector correcting sharply. After the regulatory authorities increased the margin for margin financing, the market cooled down, and the balance of margin trading and the daily turnover of the entire A - share market decreased significantly. The regulatory authorities further defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market trend will shift from the technology + dividend sectors to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Strengthened Expectations of a Slow Bull Market, Seize Structural Opportunities - The convertible bond market is strong, with a slight correction in the hundred - yuan premium rate, but it remains at a very high level. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is strong, with continuous net inflows into convertible bond ETFs since New Year's Day and high pricing of new bonds. In the equity bull - market expectation, there will be no significant pullbacks in convertible bonds, but the upward space is limited. Structural opportunities should be focused on, and sub - new bonds and those with waived early redemption rights can be emphasized. Convertible bond valuations may correct slightly under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during adjustments [10]. - The market was strong at the beginning of the week, with technology and cyclical sectors rising. The total turnover approached 4 trillion yuan, and there was a divergence in popular sectors. After regulatory measures, the market cooled down. The regulatory authorities defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. The upward logic remains unchanged in the long - term, and the market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, shifting to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Record - High Trading Volume, Slight Decline in Valuations 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Increased - The equity market rose with increased volume and then declined this week. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed strongly. The Kechuang 50 index rose 2.58%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the Beizheng 50 index rose 1.58%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.57%, and the SSE 50 index fell 1.74%. In terms of industries, the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 616.623 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [15]. 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, High - Price and Low - Rating Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds rose significantly this week. The hundred - yuan premium rate declined slightly but remained at an absolute high. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 101.923 billion yuan, peaking at 109.860 billion yuan on Wednesday and then falling below 100 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion price increased 0.9% to 106.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 0.8% to 33.1%. In terms of style, high - price and low - rating convertible bonds continued to lead the gains, while high - rating and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [22].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [42] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the year, there was a significant divergence in the stock and bond markets, with equities having a "good start" and the bond market facing a "poor start". The "seasonal pattern" of the bond market has shifted to the equity market due to the maturity of various deposit - type institutions' funds from the end of the previous year to the end of the current year. The core driver of the A - share market has fundamentally changed, with the storage industry chain's market value surpassing that of the real estate industry chain. The economic elasticity is now driven by the technology cycle, which determines the new pricing benchmark for long - term interest rates. The bond market's core contradiction is the structural imbalance between supply and demand [2][4][7][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Seasonal Pattern Shift - The "seasonal pattern" of the bond market has shifted to the equity market. It's estimated that about 67 trillion and 75 trillion of household time deposits will mature in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Even if only 10% of the funds are reallocated, it will amount to trillions. These funds mainly flow into "fixed - income plus" wealth management products and dividend - type insurance, which intensifies the capital outflow pressure in the bond market [8][10] 3.2 Change in A - share Market Core Driver - Ten years ago (in 2015), the market value of the real estate industry chain was four times that of the storage industry chain. Currently, the market value of the storage industry chain is three times that of the real estate chain. The core indicator for measuring the A - share fundamentals and the Chinese economic cycle has changed from real estate prices to storage chip prices represented by memory. The technology expansion has brought "re - inflation" pressure, and the real estate's contribution to GDP fluctuations has approached zero [10][13] 3.3 Bond Market Supply - Demand Imbalance - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand issues in the bond market have gradually evolved into a systematic framework. There are two main paths: rising equities lead to falling bonds, causing the withdrawal of trading funds with unstable liabilities and the over - limit of banks' EVE indicators after long - term bonds are returned to the balance sheet; and rising equities lead insurance institutions to rebalance towards more stocks and fewer bonds, reducing the demand for long - term bonds. Assuming the treasury bond issuance structure is determined by "stable growth" plans and the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remains unchanged, the supply and demand of long - term bonds will face an annual - level "imbalance" [16][17] 3.4 Adjustment of Local Bond Maturity - The main pressure in the bond market comes from the issuance inertia of ultra - long - term government bonds. Although there were expectations for the Ministry of Finance to shorten the issuance maturity, the issuance of 30 - year special bonds in Shandong Province in January 2024 somewhat dashed these expectations. General treasury bonds and general local bonds have relatively short maturities with limited compression space. Special bonds and special treasury bonds can effectively shorten the duration, but local governments are less willing to shorten their issuance maturities. Fiscal adjustment may have a strong lag, possibly going through three steps: issuance difficulties with the cost spread exceeding 35BP for several months, seeking policy support from the central bank to buy bonds, and finally being forced to adjust the issuance maturity if support is insufficient [19][20][21] 3.5 Shortening of Insurance Asset Duration - Insurance institutions' liability side has fundamentally changed. To compete for household savings, insurance companies have widely promoted dividend - type insurance to replace traditional life insurance. The average liability duration of dividend - type insurance is only 5 - 7 years. To achieve the promised high returns (about 3.4% - 3.5%), their asset allocation is more aggressive and more inclined to equity assets, and they need less ultra - long - term bonds. Insurance's demand for long - term bonds is shifting from "allocation - based" to "trading - based". In an environment of rising interest rate expectations, insurance institutions will postpone the allocation rhythm. The growth of insurance premiums does not match the supply of ultra - long - term bonds [28][29][30] 3.6 Banks Facing Regulatory Constraints - After banks承接 the long - term bonds sold by public funds and other institutions, the scale of their interest - rate - sensitive assets has increased significantly, causing the EVE indicator to approach or exceed the 15% regulatory red line. In 2026, reducing the shock scenario from 250bps to 225bps will release about 700 billion of EVE allocation space, which is far from enough for the large - scale new supply in the primary market. Due to regulatory requirements on the duration of assets included in the AC account, banks cannot place a large number of newly purchased ultra - long - term bonds in the AC account, further reducing their allocation willingness. The over - limit of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) indicator further restricts the buying space [35][36][37] 3.7 Abandoning "Bull - Market Thinking" - In the current non - bullish bond market situation, typical "bull - market thinking" such as absolute interest rate point thinking, the inertial behavior of allocation - based investors, and the "fear of missing out" mentality should be abandoned. Strategies suggest separating the low - duration core position from the trading position. The overall portfolio duration of the core position should be maintained at a moderately low level, mainly allocating short - term, high - liquidity credit bonds or certificates of deposit. The trading position can use a small amount of funds for short - term trading based on oversold rebounds or market sentiment, with strict profit - taking and stop - loss rules. "Less trading" or "no trading" is also a good strategy [38][39] 3.8 Conditions for Bear - to - Bull Transition - The real bear - to - bull transition in the bond market requires two key policy signals: the Ministry of Finance clearly shortening the issuance maturity of special bonds or special treasury bonds in the issuance announcement, and the central bank announcing or implementing a bond - buying program far exceeding the current scale [40]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant improvement in the tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in both domestic and international travel demand, with daily cross-regional personnel flow reaching 198 million, up 19.5% year-on-year [7][9] - The average daily inbound and outbound personnel during the New Year holiday reached 2.205 million, marking a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in inbound tourism due to optimized policies [7][9] - Domestic tourism saw a daily average of 47.33 million tourists and a revenue of 28.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 6.3% respectively, driven by improved service supply in popular destinations [9][10] Group 2 - The report notes a rise in pig prices, with the national average price for pigs increasing by 3.9% week-on-week, attributed to improved demand from New Year stocking [19] - Real estate sales continue to face challenges, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities down 26.0% year-on-year, and significant declines observed across first, second, and third-tier cities [14][15] - The retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 12% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector, with rising inventory levels among dealers [15][16] Group 3 - The electronic industry remains robust, with DRAM memory prices increasing by 2.6% to 7.1% across different types, driven by AI infrastructure investments [21][22] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a low-level oscillation in steel prices [23][27] - Chemical prices are mixed, with PX prices rising by 6.4%, while some other chemical prices have slightly declined, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance in the chemical industry [32][33] Group 4 - Coal prices have stabilized, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9%, and port inventories continuing to decline, suggesting increased downstream replenishment activity [36][37] - Industrial metal prices have continued to rise, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, driven by supply concerns and strong global demand expectations [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to positively impact the prices of precious and base metals, leading to a favorable liquidity environment in the market [2]. Precious Metals - The confirmation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has catalyzed a steady increase in precious metal prices, with London spot silver prices surpassing $60 per ounce [2]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a loose liquidity environment leading up to Christmas, which is expected to support continued strength in precious metal prices [2]. Copper - Macro disturbances have increased, leading to fluctuations in copper prices. Although prices reached new highs following the Fed's actions, they faced downward pressure due to renewed concerns over AI and hawkish comments from some Fed officials [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PCE, along with Japan's monetary policy meeting, are expected to heighten macroeconomic impacts, resulting in a primarily volatile copper price outlook [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are showing a strong upward trend due to macroeconomic support from the Fed's rate cut, despite ongoing pressure from excess supply of alumina [2]. - The aluminum processing operating rate has declined to 61.8%, influenced by high prices and environmental production restrictions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with a slight increase in production and a significant reduction in inventory by 2,133 tons, although December's new energy vehicle sales data is expected to show weakness [3]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand remains cautious [3]. - Rare earth prices have decreased, particularly for medium and heavy rare earths, while tin supply faces uncertainties from geopolitical disturbances [3].

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been upgraded from 4.0% to 5.2% due to strong domestic demand and supportive government reforms [1] Group 1: Economic Growth - The strong domestic demand is expected to drive an increase in Malaysia's GDP growth [1] - The investment spending is robust, supported by government structural reforms and major infrastructure projects [1] - The tightening labor market is anticipated to bolster private consumption [1] Group 2: Export and External Factors - The technology cycle may support Malaysia's export growth [1] - However, the growth outlook faces risks from external factors such as a significant slowdown in global growth and a downturn in the technology cycle [1] Group 3: Comparative Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for 2025 is set at 4.8%, indicating a positive outlook for the following year [1]

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI year-on-year increased by 0.7%, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2%, slightly worse than the expected -2.0%, and unchanged from the previous month[1] Key Drivers of CPI Changes - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly above the seasonal average of -0.5%, primarily driven by a 7.2% increase in fresh vegetable prices due to supply shocks[2] - Non-food items showed resilience, with clothing prices up 0.7% and medical services prices increasing by 0.3% for eight consecutive months[2] - Service prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, negatively impacting core CPI, particularly due to a 5.7% drop in tourism-related prices[2] PPI Insights - PPI has shown a month-on-month increase of 0.1% for two consecutive months, indicating stabilization in industrial product prices[3] - The mining sector saw a significant month-on-month increase of 1.7%, while the raw materials sector experienced a decline of 0.2%[3] - Manufacturing prices in high-weight sectors like photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion batteries showed reduced year-on-year declines, supporting PPI stability[4] Future Outlook - December inflation readings are expected to remain stable, with CPI likely holding at 0.7% year-on-year if month-on-month changes align with seasonal trends[7] - PPI year-on-year may narrow to -2.0% if the recovery trend continues[7] - The necessity for monetary policy adjustments may increase due to inflation trends and PMI remaining below the growth threshold[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in public fund research activities in the fourth quarter, focusing on high-growth sectors such as industrial machinery, electronic components, electrical equipment, and integrated circuits, indicating a strong interest in growth-oriented investments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Research Activity - As of November 12, public funds conducted a total of 10,115 research activities in the fourth quarter, representing a more than 50% increase compared to the previous quarter [1]. - Major public funds, including China Universal Asset Management, Ping An Fund, and Huaxia Fund, have been actively involved, with China Universal leading with 412 research activities [1][2]. - The focus of these research activities is primarily on the STAR Market and ChiNext, with nearly 60% of the surveyed stocks falling within these categories [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The four core sectors attracting institutional attention are industrial machinery, electronic components, electrical equipment, and integrated circuits [2]. - Notable companies in the industrial machinery sector include Xin Qiang Lian and Ou Ke Yi, while in electronic components, the focus is on Luxshare Precision and Zhongji Xuchuang [2]. - The electrical equipment sector features companies like Jiao Cheng Chao Sheng and Huichuan Technology, and the integrated circuit sector includes Ju Chen Co. and Wei Ce Technology [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The increase in research activity reflects a shift in institutional focus towards potential high-growth sectors for the upcoming year, driven by a consensus on improving macro liquidity and profit expectations [2][3]. - The current research emphasis is on high-end equipment, electronic components, and new energy support, with institutions looking to identify potential high-growth targets [3]. - Despite short-term market fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, the breadth and depth of research indicate a generally optimistic outlook for the market in the coming year [3].