编者按：日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济 工作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署 问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面热点 问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段，通过预算、政府债券、税收等工具组合，发挥扩大总需求和定向调 结构的双重优势，实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。在中央经济工作会议提出"保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的总体要求后，市场对明年财政赤字率的设定高度关注。 财政赤字是衡量全年财政政策力度和财政风险水平的重要指标，直接关系到年内政府支出规模。目前， 市场机构与业内人士对财政赤字率的预期较为一致，预计明年赤字率不低于今年水平，即不低于4%。 该赤字率水平既能延续财政扩张态势，又避免了债务风险过快累积。 财政赤字率是社会各界观察宏观政策力度的风向标，从稳定市场预期角度看，"十五五"开局之年的财政 赤字率水平不宜低于上年。2025年，财政政策取向转为"更加积极"，赤字率大幅提升1个百分点至4%， 为近年最高水 ...

最新数据显示，美国财政部发行在外的国债余额首次突破30万亿美元大关，约为2018年的两倍。此 项余额包括国库券、国债票据和长期国债，是美国联邦总债务的核心组成部分。与此同时，美国整体 联邦债务已升至约38.4万亿美元。其中，约30万亿美元为市场持有债务，其余为政府内部账户（如 社会保障信托基金）持有。 更多最新消息： 马克龙访华，商务部：中法签署关于加强双向投资的谅解备忘录；美国财政部发行在外的国债规模突 破30万亿美元；美国防部最新报告称，防长在"泄密门"中行为违反联邦法｜早报 ...

Core Points - The Japanese government plans to issue more new bonds to finance its economic stimulus package, with the new bond scale expected to exceed the previous fiscal year's level [1][4] - The supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 is estimated at approximately 18.3 trillion yen, funded by issuing 11.7 trillion yen in government bonds [1][4] - The government aims to control borrowing by utilizing a tax revenue surplus of 2.9 trillion yen, about 1 trillion yen in non-tax revenue, and approximately 2.7 trillion yen in unused funds from the previous fiscal year [1][4] Economic Stimulus Plan - The comprehensive economic stimulus plan approved by the Japanese government amounts to 21.3 trillion yen, marking the largest stimulus measure since the pandemic began [4] - The plan addresses various areas, including inflation relief, strategic industry investment, and defense spending [4] - Specific allocations include 2.95 trillion yen for inflation response, 1.5 trillion yen for key sectors like AI and shipbuilding, and 1.3 trillion yen for defense [5][6] Fiscal Concerns - Concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal situation under Prime Minister Kishi's administration have led to increased investor anxiety, with long-term government bond yields reaching over 20-year highs [7] - The dollar to yen exchange rate is reported at 155.95, while the 20-year and 30-year government bond yields are at 3.329% and 3.677%, respectively [7] - To stabilize market sentiment, Prime Minister Kishi indicated that the total government bond issuance for the current fiscal year would be lower than the previous year, with a total issuance of 40.3 trillion yen expected for fiscal year 2025 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of super long-term special government bonds in China is a key macroeconomic policy tool aimed at expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Allocation - The Ministry of Finance has scheduled the issuance of 50-year and 20-year super long-term special government bonds on October 10 and October 14, respectively, marking the conclusion of the 1.3 trillion yuan issuance for the year [1]. - The fourth batch of 690 million yuan in funding for consumer goods replacement has been allocated to local governments, aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Investment and Consumption - The super long-term special government bonds have effectively supported infrastructure investment, with over 8,400 projects in key sectors such as energy, transportation, and environmental infrastructure, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2]. - The consumer goods replacement initiative has seen 330 million participants in the first eight months, generating over 2 trillion yuan in related sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of the policy in stimulating consumer demand [2]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - To sustain economic recovery, it is essential to continue leveraging super long-term special government bonds to enhance investment and consumption, with a focus on effective fund management and project oversight [3]. - There is a need to optimize the implementation of consumer goods replacement subsidies, potentially expanding the subsidy range and increasing standards to better meet diverse market demands [3]. Group 4: Structural Benefits of Bonds - Super long-term special government bonds are designed to optimize the debt structure between central and local governments and align with the funding needs of long-cycle projects, thereby enhancing the overall effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China is set to conclude on October 14, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for the year, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of development [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 50-year and 20-year bonds to be issued on October 10 and October 14, respectively [1]. - As of October 9, a total of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued, leaving 70 billion yuan yet to be issued [2]. - The final bond issuance on October 14 will consist of a 400 billion yuan 20-year bond, following a 300 billion yuan 50-year bond on October 10 [2]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The 1.3 trillion yuan raised from ultra-long-term special government bonds will be allocated as follows: 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, 200 billion yuan for equipment updates, and 800 billion yuan for major national projects [3]. - The State Development and Reform Commission has allocated the fourth batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [3]. - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies for consumer product upgrades, resulting in over 2 trillion yuan in related sales [3]. Group 3: Future Management - The government plans to enhance the effectiveness of ultra-long-term special government bonds by improving information sharing and project planning to support urgent and long-term development needs [3]. - There will be a focus on evaluating the implementation of policies related to "two new" initiatives and optimizing policy arrangements [3]. - The management of "two heavy" projects will be strengthened throughout their lifecycle, including oversight of fund allocation and post-completion management of operations and returns [3].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the second tranche of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total face value of 35 billion yuan [1] - The bonds have a fixed interest rate of 2.10%, consistent with the previously issued bonds of the same term [1] - The issuance will not allow additional bidding from Class A members, and the interest start date and payment arrangements will match those of the previously issued bonds [1] Group 2 - In August, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 1.079 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% [2] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles in the market is 55.3%, with cumulative retail sales of 7.535 million units this year, up 25% compared to the previous year [2]

Core Insights - Despite concerns over the weakening dollar affecting confidence in U.S. assets, foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities remains robust, leading to a record total holding of $9.13 trillion in June, an increase of $80.2 billion from May [1][6] - In the first half of the year, the total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $508.1 billion [1] Summary by Category Foreign Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a record $9.13 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, marking an increase of $80.2 billion from May [1] - Major foreign holders include Japan, which increased its holdings by $12.6 billion to $1.15 trillion, and the UK, which saw a significant increase of $48.7 billion to $858.1 billion, surpassing China as the second-largest holder [6] - China's holdings remained stable, with a slight increase of $0.1 billion to $756.4 billion, making it the third-largest holder [6] Market Dynamics - The influx of funds into U.S. Treasuries occurred during a period of significant dollar depreciation, with the dollar index dropping nearly 11% in the first half of the year, the largest semi-annual decline since 1973 [1][6] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is crucial as foreign investors hold over 30% of outstanding U.S. debt, serving as a vital pillar for U.S. government financing [5] Investment Behavior - The actions of major foreign holders showed divergence in June, with the UK and Belgium increasing their holdings, while countries like India and Ireland opted to reduce their positions [6] - India's holdings decreased by $7.9 billion to $227.4 billion, while Ireland also recorded a decline [6] - Changes in total foreign holdings reflect not only net buying or selling but also fluctuations in asset valuations, as evidenced by a rebound in a U.S. Treasury index in June following a sell-off in May [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department is set to auction a record $100 billion in 4-week Treasury bills on August 7, highlighting the government's significant borrowing needs and its ability to attract investors [1][2] - This record issuance is a $5 billion increase from the previous week and is part of the Treasury's efforts to replenish its General Account (TGA) following the recent increase in the debt ceiling [1][5] - The Treasury plans to continue relying on short-term debt instruments to cover budget deficits at least until 2026, with a focus on increasing the issuance of short-term securities [1][5] Group 2 - The Treasury will also issue a total of $125 billion in coupon-bearing securities this week, with the 3-year and 10-year notes reaching their highest single issuance levels in over a year [2][3] - Specific plans include the issuance of $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [3][4] - The Treasury's strategy indicates a continued emphasis on short-term debt, with short-term securities expected to comprise a larger portion of the total outstanding debt in the coming months [5][6] Group 3 - There is currently strong demand for short-term Treasury securities, supported by inflows into U.S. money market funds, which hold approximately $7.4 trillion in assets [6][7] - However, potential risks arise from the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, which may affect the ability of money market fund managers to absorb the supply of short-term securities [6][7] - Analysts predict that despite the current focus on short-term debt, the government will eventually need to increase the issuance of longer-term bonds to meet future borrowing demands [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury conducted auctions for both four-year and eight-year government bonds, with slight changes in yield rates and bid-to-cover ratios compared to previous auctions [1] Summary by Category Four-Year Treasury Auction - The awarded yield rate was 4.245%, an increase from the previous rate of 4.230% [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.69, down from the prior ratio of 2.91 [1] Eight-Year Treasury Auction - The awarded yield rate was 4.265%, slightly lower than the previous rate of 4.270% [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.63, an increase from the previous ratio of 2.60 [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 13-week (3-month) bills with a winning yield of 4.245%, down from 4.255% on July 7 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 13-week bills was 3.10, an increase from the previous ratio of 2.75 [1] - The auction of 26-week (6-month) bills had a winning yield of 4.125%, slightly lower than the previous yield of 4.145% [1] Group 2 - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 26-week bills was also 3.10, up from the prior ratio of 3.00 [1]