证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 油气行业 2025 年 9 月月报 优于大市 受地缘政治与 OPEC+产量政策博弈影响，9 月油价宽幅震荡 9 月油价回顾： 2025 年 9 月布伦特原油期货均价为 67.6 美元/桶，环比上涨 0.3 美元/ 桶，月末收于 67.0 美元/桶；WTI 原油期货均价 63.6 美元/桶，环比下 跌 0.4 美元/桶，月末收于 72.4 美元/桶。9 月上旬，美国袭击委内瑞拉 船只推升风险溢价，OPEC+宣布自 10 月起延续增产，部分成员国更新补 偿性减产安排，实际削减本年度减产力度，叠加三大机构月报上调累库 预期，油价冲高回落。9 月中下旬，以色列突袭卡塔尔、俄罗斯持续遭 乌克兰无人机袭击等地缘冲突再度升温，美国原油出口量显著增加带动 库存去化；美联储降息 25 基点，但对原油价格影响有限，炼厂进入季 节性检修需求承压，油价再度冲高回落。 油价观点判断： 供给端 OPEC+宣布 10、11 月份延续增产：2024 年 12 月第 38 届 OPEC+ 召开部长级会议，决定将 200 万桶/日集体减产、166 万桶/日自愿减产 目标延长至 2026 年底；将 220 ...

Core Insights - The report by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that countries in the Middle East and Africa reliant on oil economies will face severe fiscal challenges due to low oil prices by 2025, with only the UAE and gas-rich Qatar able to achieve fiscal balance at current oil price levels [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Brent crude oil averaged $101 per barrel in 2022, but prices are constrained in 2023 due to increased supply from non-OPEC+ countries, weak market demand, U.S. tariffs, and OPEC+ ending voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] - Analysts predict that the average Brent crude oil price will be $68 per barrel in 2025, with the year-to-date average as of July 16 being $71.79 per barrel [1] Group 2: Fiscal Breach and Vulnerabilities - Low oil prices will adversely affect the fiscal health of weaker oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Africa, including Gabon, Angola, Nigeria, Iraq, and Oman [1] - Gabon requires an oil price of $117 per barrel to achieve fiscal balance, while the UAE only needs $42 per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven oil price is $93 per barrel, Nigeria's is $86 per barrel, and Iraq's is $99 per barrel [1] Group 3: Specific Country Risks - Iraq faces the highest risk due to its heavy reliance on oil revenues for budgetary needs, with foreign reserves projected to decline from $102.3 billion at the end of 2023 to $70 billion by the end of 2025, potentially triggering emergency policy interventions [2] - Angola, which plans to exit OPEC in 2024 due to production quota disputes, can only cover 90% of its debt repayment costs at an oil price of $68 per barrel, raising bankruptcy risks [2] - Nigeria's 2025 budget is based on an oil price assumption of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, but actual production in June was only 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating potential fiscal strain [2] - Oman may experience its first fiscal deficit since 2021 and has planned to introduce income tax for high earners starting in 2028 to mitigate low oil price impacts [2] Group 4: OPEC+ Production Adjustments - Since April, eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts have announced plans to quickly increase their quotas, aiming to restore full production by early October, adding downward pressure to an already struggling oil market [3] - Only Saudi Arabia has begun executing its production increase plan, and if other countries follow suit, a supply surplus may emerge in the oil market by year-end, further depressing oil prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the sector [2][12]. Core Insights - OPEC is expected to continue increasing production in June, with an additional 411,000 barrels per day from member countries, indicating a potential second bottom for oil prices [2][3]. - The report suggests that OPEC's current strategy is to test market limits, balancing production and price to optimize revenue for member countries [11]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a widening supply-demand trend, with expectations of downward pressure on oil prices, but a medium to high price range is anticipated due to OPEC's production adjustments and shale oil cost support [2][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.29 per barrel, down 8.34% week-on-week, while WTI futures fell 7.51% to $58.29 per barrel [2][17]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 759,000 barrels to 442 million barrels, which is 5% lower than the five-year average [19]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 584, down 3 from the previous week and down 21 year-on-year [31][35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $17.21 per barrel, up $6.27 from the previous week [2]. - The price spread for PTA in East China rose to 4,451.30 CNY per ton, reflecting a 1.94% increase week-on-week [12][51]. Polyester Sector - The PX market in Asia closed at $757 per ton, up 1.85% week-on-week, with the PX-naphtha spread increasing by $18.50 to $181.87 per ton [12][51]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes, but a gradual improvement is expected as new capacity comes online [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to improved cost expectations and competitive advantages [12]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical, with favorable conditions for ethane-based ethylene production [12]. - For upstream exploration and development, companies like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering are expected to benefit from high capital expenditure in offshore projects [12].