证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 油气行业 2025 年 9 月月报 优于大市 受地缘政治与 OPEC+产量政策博弈影响，9 月油价宽幅震荡 9 月油价回顾： 2025 年 9 月布伦特原油期货均价为 67.6 美元/桶，环比上涨 0.3 美元/ 桶，月末收于 67.0 美元/桶；WTI 原油期货均价 63.6 美元/桶，环比下 跌 0.4 美元/桶，月末收于 72.4 美元/桶。9 月上旬，美国袭击委内瑞拉 船只推升风险溢价，OPEC+宣布自 10 月起延续增产，部分成员国更新补 偿性减产安排，实际削减本年度减产力度，叠加三大机构月报上调累库 预期，油价冲高回落。9 月中下旬，以色列突袭卡塔尔、俄罗斯持续遭 乌克兰无人机袭击等地缘冲突再度升温，美国原油出口量显著增加带动 库存去化；美联储降息 25 基点，但对原油价格影响有限，炼厂进入季 节性检修需求承压，油价再度冲高回落。 油价观点判断： 供给端 OPEC+宣布 10、11 月份延续增产：2024 年 12 月第 38 届 OPEC+ 召开部长级会议，决定将 200 万桶/日集体减产、166 万桶/日自愿减产 目标延长至 2026 年底；将 220 ...

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6][4] Core Views - Oil prices experienced fluctuations in August, with Brent crude averaging $67.3 per barrel and WTI averaging $64.0 per barrel, both showing month-on-month declines [1][13] - OPEC+ announced significant production increases, with a plan to accelerate output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, while extending previous voluntary production cuts until 2026 [2][15] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow by 680,000 to 1,290,000 barrels per day in 2025, with similar growth expected in 2026 [3][16] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to range from $60 to $70 per barrel [19][37] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In August, Brent crude futures averaged $67.3 per barrel, down $2.1 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $64.0 per barrel, down $3.1 [1][13] - The price recovery in late August was supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][13] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has committed to a collective production cut of 2 million barrels per day and a voluntary cut of 1.66 million barrels per day, extending these measures until the end of 2026 [2][15] - OPEC+ has significantly increased production in recent months, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July, and a further increase of 547,000 barrels per day announced for September [2][15] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast crude oil demand growth of 680,000 to 1,290,000 barrels per day for 2025, with similar growth for 2026 [3][16] - The demand for crude oil is expected to be supported by increased refinery activity, particularly in the U.S. [60] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [4][5] - Investment ratings for these companies are all "Outperform" with specific earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios provided [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The Yellowtail project in Guyana has commenced production ahead of schedule, with a designed capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, increasing the total capacity of the Stabroek block to 900,000 barrels per day. The project was initially planned for production in Q4 2025 [5][8]. - The company has successfully launched the Kenli 10-2 oilfield development project (Phase I) and the Dongfang 1-1 gas field 13-3 area development project, marking significant milestones in domestic oil and gas production [6][10]. - The domestic oil and gas production in China has shown positive growth, with the Bohai Oilfield achieving a record production of over 20 million tons of oil equivalent in the first half of 2025 [11]. - OPEC+ has fully exited an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, which may lead to a slight decrease in the medium to long-term oil price center [12]. - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, and PE ratios of 9.7, 9.4, and 9.0x [14]. Summary by Sections Project Developments - The Yellowtail project is the fourth project in the Stabroek block, which includes existing projects Liza Phase I, Liza Phase II, and Payara. The average production in the Stabroek block is currently around 650,000 barrels per day, with an expected increase to 900,000 barrels per day post Yellowtail's production [5][8]. - The Kenli 10-2 oilfield is the first billion-ton level lithologic oilfield discovered in the Bohai Bay Basin, with Phase I involving the production of 79 wells and an expected peak output of approximately 19,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 [6][10]. - The Dongfang 1-1 gas field project is China's first high-temperature, high-pressure, low-permeability natural gas development project, with an expected peak output of about 35 million cubic feet per day by 2026 [6][10]. Market Conditions - The first half of 2025 saw a stable increase in oil and gas production in China, with a total industrial crude oil output of 108 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [11]. - The Brent crude oil futures average price in July 2025 was $69.4 per barrel, with a slight decrease from the previous month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.1 per barrel [12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, and PE ratios of 9.7, 9.4, and 9.0x, maintaining an "Outperform the Market" rating [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The company is steadily advancing domestic oil and gas reserves and production, with a significant breakthrough in metamorphic rock exploration in the South China Sea [2][3] - The Bohai Oilfield has achieved a record oil and gas production of 20.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, enhancing offshore oil and gas supply capabilities [4][9] - The Guyana Stabroek block has reached a new monthly production high, with the Yellowtail project expected to commence production in Q4 2025, increasing total capacity to 940,000 barrels per day [4][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Production - The Weizhou 10-5 South Oilfield has made a significant breakthrough in metamorphic rock exploration, with a test well producing 400 barrels of oil and 16.5 million cubic feet of gas per day [3][8] - The Weizhou 5-3 oilfield development project has been put into production, with an expected peak output of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The Brent oil price forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from $75 to $68 per barrel, leading to a reduction in the company's net profit estimates to 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][17] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, with PE ratios of 9.7, 9.4, and 9.0x for the same years [6][17] Market Conditions - OPEC+ is gradually exiting an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, with short-term demand supported by seasonal factors [5][13] - The average WTI crude oil price for Q2 2025 is projected at $64.0 per barrel, reflecting a 10.5% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 20.7% year-on-year decline [5][14]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the asphalt market in the second half of the year will experience limited supply growth, with refinery production depending on profit margins and downstream demand [1] Supply Analysis - Limited capacity release is expected in the second half, with refinery production influenced by production profits and downstream demand [1] - High dilution asphalt discounts are likely to have a limited impact on independent refinery restarts [1] - Adjustments in fuel oil and dilution asphalt consumption tax refund policies may boost refinery processing profits and operational levels [1] - Maintenance plans for some petrochemical plants in Shandong during July and August will limit asphalt supply increases [1] - Southern petrochemical asphalt production is expected to decrease, alleviating supply surplus pressures [1] - Asphalt inventories at refineries and social storage are at near five-year lows, with significant inventory reductions and strong price support from manufacturers [1] Demand Analysis - The issuance of new local government special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half, although debt repayment and other projects may squeeze construction funding [1] - Export pressures may increase, while infrastructure investment could ramp up, but actual workload may remain low [1] - The rainy season moving north in the south will gradually restore domestic asphalt demand [1] - Demand was weak in June and July in South China and the Yangtze River Delta, but increased project construction in the north supports demand [1] - From August to October, demand is expected to increase due to project acceleration, with some highway projects entering the paving stage [1] Cost Analysis - The crude oil market experienced high volatility in the first half due to tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in the third quarter, with stable output in the fourth quarter, although export growth may lag behind production increases in the next 2-3 months [1] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with supply growth in the second half relying on non-OPEC+ and non-U.S. countries [1] - The summer demand peak in overseas markets is anticipated to boost transportation fuel demand in Europe and the U.S. in the third quarter [1] - EIA and IEA predict an oversupply in the crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters, with inventory accumulation pressures persisting [1] - Tight supply-demand conditions in the third quarter may support a rebound in oil prices to $70 per barrel, while the price center may shift down to $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter [1] Strategic Insights - The first half of the year saw an oversupply of asphalt in South China, leading to lower prices and a shift in pricing center due to low-cost resources moving north [1] - The second half is expected to see some supply growth, contingent on processing profits, with increased demand during peak seasons, although overall demand for the year remains weak [1] - The valuation in the first half was considered high, with recommendations to short the crack spread at high prices and to monitor changes in South China warehouse receipts [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ production adjustment plan is the dominant factor influencing current oil price levels [2][5]. - In March 2025, oil prices exhibited a V-shaped trend, influenced by several key events including OPEC+'s announcement of a production increase and geopolitical developments [2][3]. Summary by Sections OPEC Production and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, marking the first monthly increase in over two years, which heightened supply concerns and exerted downward pressure on oil prices [2][3]. - The geopolitical landscape showed signs of easing with U.S.-Ukraine negotiations and new sanctions on Iran, contributing to a slight rebound in oil prices [2][3]. - OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Iraq, have implemented new compensation production cuts to address overproduction, which is expected to provide short-term support for oil prices [2][5]. Oil Price Forecasts - The EIA predicts that global oil supply-demand dynamics will remain tight until mid-2025, with Brent oil prices expected to rise from $70 per barrel to $75 per barrel by Q3 2025, before facing downward pressure from increased production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [7]. - The report anticipates an average Brent oil price of around $75 per barrel in the first half of 2025, with a potential decline to a midpoint of $70 per barrel in the second half of the year due to increased production and geopolitical developments [7]. Global Oil Demand Projections - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to reach 105.2 million barrels per day in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.45 million barrels per day, driven primarily by growth in emerging markets like China and India [24][25]. - The report highlights that the demand for refined products, particularly jet fuel and gasoline, is expected to continue growing, supported by recovery in transportation and tourism sectors [24][25]. Non-OPEC Supply Trends - Non-OPEC countries are projected to increase oil production significantly, with the EIA estimating a year-on-year increase of approximately 187,000 barrels per day in 2024, primarily driven by the U.S., Canada, and Brazil [18][26]. - The report indicates that the overall global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, reflecting a shift in the balance of supply and demand dynamics [36][40].