为了稳经济，中国首次在2025年实施更加积极财政政策，广义财政支出规模首次突破40万亿元。 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿元，同比增长3.7%；广义财政收入约为27.38万 亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩大债务规模，实施超常规逆周期调节，保持必要 支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年经济平稳运行。 2026.02. 05 本文字数：2644，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度等，以推动今年经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、创新政策工具等，以更强的政策力度推动经济稳 中向好并切实改善民生。 财政支出为何能保持力度 去年广义财政支出规模创新高，支出增速与名义经济增速相近，折射了财政支 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政的三个年度级别转折 ——12 月财政数据点评 事 项 12 月广义财政收入同比-18.5%，11 月同比-5.2%；12 月广义财政支出同比-0.7%， 11 月同比-1.7%。2025 年广义财政收入同比-2.9%，2024 年同比-2.0%，2025 年 广义财政支出同比 3.7%，2024 年同比 2.7%。 核心观点 对于 2025 年财政运行，我们观察到债务表述（从逆周期到重提跨周期）、收 入方向（从负反馈到正反馈）、支出结构（从投资于物到投资于人）三个年度 级别转折，或对投资者感知 2026 年财政有启发。 主要观点 一、财政的三个年度级别转折 （一）债务表述的转折：从逆周期到重提跨周期 2024 年底，中央经济工作会议要求加强超常规"逆周期"调节，对应 2025 年 财政部"加大逆周期调节力度"：狭义赤字率提升 1 个百分点至 4%，新增政 府债务规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元，这些都远超前几年的平均 水平。此外，我们测算的各口径广义赤字率提升也都不低于 1 个百分点（详见 正文）。 2025 年底，中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期调节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core argument presented by Gao Peiyong emphasizes the necessity of integrating "investment in people" with "investment in material" to address current economic challenges and support the goal of achieving basic socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Group 1: Economic Context and Goals - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session highlights the need for decisive progress in achieving socialist modernization during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with specific quantitative indicators linked to per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries [1] - Current per capita GDP in China is approximately $13,500, while the target for moderately developed countries is between $25,000 and $26,000, indicating a need to double per capita GDP within the next decade [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Gao stresses that relying solely on traditional material capital investment is insufficient for sustained growth, advocating for a shift towards investing in human development to stimulate domestic demand and drive economic structural upgrades [1] - The current economic challenge of weak domestic demand and pessimistic expectations is identified, with weak expectations being the root cause of the observed decline in consumption growth [2] Group 3: Government Spending and Structural Adjustment - A systematic adjustment in government spending is necessary, which involves reducing expenditures on material investments while increasing those on human investments, thereby enhancing public service spending and optimizing the overall consumption investment structure [2] - The transition from a material-focused fiscal system to a public finance model is highlighted as a critical phase, necessitating proactive measures to drive this profound change in resource allocation [2] Group 4: Social Security and Transfer Payment System - The urgency of modernizing the social security and transfer payment system is emphasized, with current shortcomings including selective coverage, varying benefits, insufficient public service funding, and a lack of significant redistributive function [3] - The establishment of a modern social security system aims to eliminate urban-rural disparities and identity differences, ensuring universal applicability of the protection system to all citizens [3] Group 5: Proposed Reforms - Three specific reform measures are proposed: 1. Accelerate the adjustment of fiscal expenditure structure by significantly increasing the proportion of social welfare spending while reducing economic construction spending [4] 2. Improve the social security system by promoting nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance to achieve full coverage of the legally defined population [4] 3. Enhance the transfer payment system by establishing a demand-oriented precise transfer payment system to equalize social assistance within provincial administrative regions [4] - The establishment of a modern social security and transfer payment system, along with enhancing the equity and accessibility of basic public services, is deemed essential for the effective functioning of a proactive government [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current proportion of final consumption in China's GDP is around 55%, and it is necessary to increase this to at least 65% to stimulate consumption effectively [1] Group 1: Economic Structure - The adjustment of fiscal spending towards people's livelihoods must be gradual and cannot be achieved overnight [1] - A healthy and sustainable economic development requires a timeframe of three to five years [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - More fiscal resources should be allocated to people's livelihoods, with a focus on ensuring that funds reach those in need [1] - While issuing consumption vouchers involves significant investment, the effectiveness depends on whether the funds actually benefit the target groups [1] Group 3: Targeted Support - When designing specific subsidy rules, relevant departments or regions should prioritize the actual needs of economically disadvantaged groups [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the declining birth rate in China, which has dropped below 1 in 2023, ranking second to last among major global economies, only above South Korea [1][2] - The total fertility rate (TFR) is projected to reach only 1.2 by 2053, which is still below the 2010 level [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - **Reasons for Declining Birth Rate**: - The number of women of childbearing age (15-49 years) has decreased by over 4 million from 2021 to 2022, with a significant drop in the 21-35 age group [3][4] - Overall fertility levels are declining, with a projected reduction of about one-third over the next 30 years [4] - Changing marriage concepts and delayed marriages have led to a decrease in marriage registrations, with 2024 expected to see 6.1 million registrations, a reduction of about 20% from 2023 [4] - **Government Measures**: - The Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to address low birth rates, including a comprehensive baby subsidy system aimed at reducing childcare costs and easing financial burdens on young parents [5][10] - The subsidy policy combines central and local government efforts, similar to the new energy vehicle subsidy model [6][10] - **Effectiveness of Policies**: - Despite the introduction of the one-child, two-child, and three-child policies, there has been no significant increase in birth rates, with the three-child birth rate remaining below 4% for three consecutive years [7][10] - Local governments have experimented with various subsidy models, with mixed results; for example, some regions have seen slight increases in birth rates, but these have not reversed the national downward trend [11][13] Important but Overlooked Content - **Net Population Reproduction Rate**: - The net reproduction rate has been below 1 since 1991, indicating a trend towards population decline. It is expected to drop to 0.47 by 2024, with a slight rebound to 0.52 by 2035, which is still insufficient to reverse the trend [9][10] - **Future Population Structure**: - Projections indicate that China's total population may decline by about one-third from its peak in the next 30 years, primarily due to the decreasing number of women of childbearing age [8][10] - **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: - China's fiscal spending structure is shifting towards enhancing people's livelihoods, with significant budget increases in education and social security, which is expected to stimulate consumer spending [19][20] - Local governments may need to explore additional funding measures, such as special bonds, to support the implementation of new childcare subsidy systems [22] - **Impact of Subsidy Policies on Consumption**: - Childcare subsidies are expected to stimulate consumption, with a projected multiplier effect where a 3,600 yuan annual subsidy could generate approximately 15,000 yuan in consumption [20][21]