Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[5] - National general public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[5] - By September 2025, the completion rate of general public budget revenue was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%[6] Fiscal Trends - General fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, rebounding by 2.9 percentage points from August[6] - General fiscal expenditure in September 2025 grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to August[6] - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 10.3 trillion yuan by September 28, 2025, with an issuance progress of 87%[8] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds, including new general and special bonds, totaled 10.3 trillion yuan, which is 2.8 trillion yuan more than the previous year[8] - The issuance of new special bonds was 36,612 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83%, lagging behind the same period in 2024 by over 6 percentage points[8] - A new policy-oriented financial tool of 500 billion yuan was established by the end of September 2025, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence by mid-October[11] Budget Completion and Spending - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure in September 2025 was 9.7%, consistent with the five-year average[26] - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% in September 2025, down over 19 percentage points from August[34] - The completion rate for government fund income in September 2025 was 6.8%, higher than the 5.7% in 2024 but below the five-year average of 7.1%[18]

Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[2] Group 2: Trends in Fiscal Income and Expenditure - General fiscal income growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in August 2025, down 3.3 percentage points from July[4] - General fiscal expenditure growth also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July[4] - Government fund income fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the slowdown in general fiscal income growth[20] Group 3: Government Debt and Support Measures - The large-scale support phase from government debt financing is nearing its end, with net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaling 8.5 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025[9] - The issuance progress of special bonds was 72%, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024[9] - Future fiscal support for the economy may weaken as the issuance of new government debt approaches its limit[3] Group 4: Economic Implications - The decline in fiscal support and the impact of external factors may lead to downward pressure on economic growth[3] - Retail growth for related products has slowed since June due to promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies[3] - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure was 57.3%, slightly below the five-year average of 58.8%[2]

Fiscal Performance - In August 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 12,359 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%[3] - The national general public budget expenditure in August was 18,587 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[8] - From January to August 2025, the completion rate of the general public budget revenue was 47.8%, consistent with the same period in 2024[1] - The completion rate of general public budget expenditure was 57.3%, which is higher than the same period in 2024[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in August 2025 was 10,152 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[3] - Cumulative tax revenue from January to August 2025 achieved a positive growth of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth since December 2023[4] - Individual income tax grew by 8.9% from January to August 2025, reflecting improved tax collection efforts[4] Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue in August 2025 was 2,207 billion CNY, declining by 3.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend since May 2025[3] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to high base effects from 2024 and improved management of non-tax revenue[5] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in August 2025 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, primarily due to a drop in land transfer income[10] - Government fund budget expenditure in August 2025 increased by 19.8% year-on-year, indicating strong spending in infrastructure and public projects[10] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the implementation of new policy financial tools to support fiscal stability and economic recovery[1] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between fiscal revenue and expenditure to ensure sustainable economic growth[1]

Core Insights - The general public budget revenue has shown significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% from January to July, marking the first positive growth this year, indicating economic resilience [2][4][14] - The land market remains sluggish, with government fund budget revenue growth weak, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][8] - Fiscal expenditure has ramped up, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, the highest level in recent years, driven primarily by central government spending [3][10][14] - The structure of fiscal expenditure is optimizing, with a focus on social welfare and education, alongside new policies aimed at supporting families and boosting consumption [3][12] Revenue Analysis - From January to July, the general public budget revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, with July showing a 2.6% increase, the highest monthly growth rate [2][4] - Tax revenue recovery is a key driver, with personal income tax, domestic VAT, and domestic consumption tax showing year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [6][8] Land Market Insights - The government fund budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7% from January to July, with July's growth rate slowing significantly to 8.9% [2][8] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 12% year-on-year drop in property development investment from January to July [8][10] Expenditure Insights - Broad fiscal expenditure growth reached 9.3%, significantly higher than the previous year's decline of 2.0%, with central government expenditure growing by 33.9% [3][10] - The issuance of government bonds is at a rapid pace, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan issued from January to July, a 33.8% increase year-on-year [10][12] Policy and Structural Changes - Recent fiscal policies have focused on social welfare, with expenditures in social security, education, and health exceeding 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a commitment to improving living standards [12][14] - New initiatives such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education have been introduced to stimulate consumption and support families [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight decline in general fiscal revenue in the first half of the year, general fiscal expenditure reached a historical high, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, general fiscal revenue was approximately 135,008 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of about 0.6% [3]. - General fiscal expenditure amounted to nearly 188,800 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.9%, significantly higher than the economic growth rate of 5.3% [2][3]. - The fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by 52,536 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 45% [3]. Policy Measures and Economic Impact - The central government has emphasized the need for sustained and timely fiscal policy adjustments to support economic stability, particularly in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that the fiscal policy has been more aggressive, contributing to a stable economic environment despite pressures [2][4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and enhance the efficiency of fund utilization to address the fiscal gap [7][11]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue in the first half of the year was 92,915 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a mismatch with nominal GDP growth [4][6]. - Non-tax revenue grew by 3.7% to 22,700 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [7]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to factors such as tax cuts and changes in the tax base, particularly in traditional industries [6]. Future Outlook - The fiscal space for the second half of the year is estimated to be 60,700 billion yuan, with significant remaining quotas for deficits and special bonds [9]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a record monthly issuance of approximately 6,169 billion yuan in July [10]. - The government aims to enhance the management and efficiency of special bonds to ensure effective fund allocation for key projects [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, both significantly higher than the previous month [2][7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, above the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [2][7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit reaching -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period in previous years [12][24][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in the same period of 2024 [12][24][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the 94.4% and 60.7% in the same periods of 2022 and 2023, respectively [3][18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [3][18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June 2025, while general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.3% [25][31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [48][66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding support from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, with expenditure increasing by 12.9%, showing improvements compared to March [3][8]. - The budget completion rates for broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 33% and 28.4%, respectively, both higher than the average of the past five years [3][8]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The broad fiscal deficit reached -2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, exceeding the average deficit of -1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong support from government debt financing [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% in the same period of 2024 [10]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow, with a current issuance scale of 1.37 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 31%, lower than the previous two years [13]. - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement in growth rate compared to March [12][19]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the initiation of "incremental policies," with financial policies leading the way, and highlights the importance of monitoring the pace and direction of future fiscal expenditures [4][15]. - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" is seen as a window for accelerating the implementation of established policies and strengthening the reserve of incremental policies [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, with expenditure increasing by 12.9%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to March [3][8]. - The budget completion rates for broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 33% and 28.4%, respectively, both higher than the average of the past five years [3][8]. Group 2: Debt Financing and Special Bonds - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is likely supported by government debt financing, with a fiscal deficit of 2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, exceeding the average deficit of 1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% in the same period of 2024 [10]. - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow at 31% as of May 16, 2025, indicating potential for acceleration if revenue recovery slows [13]. Group 3: Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in April 2025, driven by a 4% increase in land transfer income [19]. - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 1.9% year-on-year in April 2025, supported by a notable rise in personal income tax [25]. - Broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.9% year-on-year in April 2025, with government fund expenditure increasing by 44.7%, reflecting a strong acceleration in spending [26][31]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the initiation of "incremental policies," with financial policies leading the way, and highlights the importance of monitoring the pace and direction of future fiscal expenditures [4][15]. - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" is seen as a window for accelerating established policies and strengthening incremental policy reserves [15]. - The focus on debt issuance and its utilization is critical, alongside the potential for "quasi-fiscal" measures to be implemented more rapidly [15].