Core Insights - The general public budget revenue has shown significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% from January to July, marking the first positive growth this year, indicating economic resilience [2][4][14] - The land market remains sluggish, with government fund budget revenue growth weak, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][8] - Fiscal expenditure has ramped up, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, the highest level in recent years, driven primarily by central government spending [3][10][14] - The structure of fiscal expenditure is optimizing, with a focus on social welfare and education, alongside new policies aimed at supporting families and boosting consumption [3][12] Revenue Analysis - From January to July, the general public budget revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, with July showing a 2.6% increase, the highest monthly growth rate [2][4] - Tax revenue recovery is a key driver, with personal income tax, domestic VAT, and domestic consumption tax showing year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [6][8] Land Market Insights - The government fund budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7% from January to July, with July's growth rate slowing significantly to 8.9% [2][8] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 12% year-on-year drop in property development investment from January to July [8][10] Expenditure Insights - Broad fiscal expenditure growth reached 9.3%, significantly higher than the previous year's decline of 2.0%, with central government expenditure growing by 33.9% [3][10] - The issuance of government bonds is at a rapid pace, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan issued from January to July, a 33.8% increase year-on-year [10][12] Policy and Structural Changes - Recent fiscal policies have focused on social welfare, with expenditures in social security, education, and health exceeding 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a commitment to improving living standards [12][14] - New initiatives such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education have been introduced to stimulate consumption and support families [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, both significantly higher than the previous month [2][7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, above the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [2][7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit reaching -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period in previous years [12][24][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in the same period of 2024 [12][24][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the 94.4% and 60.7% in the same periods of 2022 and 2023, respectively [3][18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [3][18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June 2025, while general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.3% [25][31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [48][66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding support from policy financial tools [24][77].

摘要 事件： 5月20日，财政部公布2025年前4月财政收支情况。前4月，一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下 降0.4%；前4月，一般公共预算支出93581亿元，同比增长4.6%。 广义财政支出延续提速，或主因政府债务融资支撑。 2025年4月，一般财政收支差-1.3万亿元，规模高于 2020-2024年同期平均为-0.6万亿元，或指向国债、新增一般债等资金对一般财政支持形成有效支撑。当 前国债净融资发行进度明显快于过往。截至5月16日，国债净融资规模达2.4万亿元，发行进度49.4%，明 显高于2024年同期的20.9%。 新增专项债发行进度依然偏慢，后续仍有提速空间。 4月政府性基金支出提速或主因土地出让收入拖累 缓解。地产销售增速仍处低迷态势下，土地出让收入能否持续修复仍需跟踪。当前新增专项债发行进度 依然偏慢，仍有提速空间。截至5月16日，新增专项债发行规模发行进度31%。后续若收入修复态势放 缓，新增专项债或可加速发行支撑较高支出增速。 "增量政策"拉开序幕，金融政策已然先行，后续财政支出节奏及投向或是焦点。 关税"暂缓期"亦是既定 政策加快落地、增量政策加强储备的窗口期。财政一方面关注债务发行 ...

摘要 事件： 5月20日，财政部公布2025年前4月财政收支情况。前4月，一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下 降0.4%；前4月，一般公共预算支出93581亿元，同比增长4.6%。 "增量政策"拉开序幕，金融政策已然先行，后续财政支出节奏及投向或是焦点 广义财政收支增速均有提升，前4月预算完成度均高于过去五年同期平均。 2025年4月，广义财政收入同 比2.7%，广义财政支出同比12.9%，分别较3月同比提升4.4、2.8个百分点；从预算完成度看,前4月广义财 政收入预算完成33%，高于过去五年平均31.8%；广义财政支出预算完成28.4%，略高于过去五年平均 28.2%。 广义财政支出延续提速，或主因政府债务融资支撑。 2025年4月，一般财政收支差-1.3万亿元，规模高于 2020-2024年同期平均为-0.6万亿元，或指向国债、新增一般债等资金对一般财政支持形成有效支撑。当 前国债净融资发行进度明显快于过往。截至5月16日，国债净融资规模达2.4万亿元，发行进度49.4%，明 显高于2024年同期的20.9%。 新增专项债发行进度依然偏慢，后续仍有提速空间。 4月政府性基金支出提速或主因土地出让收入 ...