Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the declining operating rates in the construction machinery sector, particularly excavators, which are seen as indicators of national economic health [1][3] - In July 2025, the operating rate for major construction machinery products was reported at 56.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.72 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [1] - The excavator operating rate specifically was 56.7%, reflecting a slight month-on-month decline of 1.5 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing policies to expand domestic demand, which is increasingly important for stabilizing economic growth amid rising external uncertainties [1] - A meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30, 2025, emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and the acceleration of government bond issuance to improve fund utilization [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance fiscal policies and increase counter-cyclical adjustments, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government bonds to support economic activities [1] Group 3 - According to estimates from Industrial Securities, the issuance of government bonds is projected to reach 7.9 trillion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a net financing scale of 4.6 trillion yuan [3] - The anticipated bond issuance includes 4.4 trillion yuan in national bonds and 3.5 trillion yuan in local bonds, with significant issuance expected in August and September [3] - A report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that government special bonds and long-term bonds will support domestic demand recovery, with a focus on infrastructure and real estate projects [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's commitment to achieving its annual development goals through enhanced macroeconomic policy effectiveness and addressing challenges, while focusing on stabilizing employment, investment, and consumption. Group 1: Economic Stability and Growth - The State Council aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while strengthening domestic circulation and optimizing external circulation to meet annual targets and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - There is a focus on increasing investment and promoting consumption, particularly by stimulating private investment and enhancing market vitality [5] - The government plans to implement a new round of ten key industry growth actions to support economic stability [14] Group 2: Innovation and Digital Economy - The government is promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative and advancing the development of the low-altitude economy to stimulate innovation in the digital economy [6] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the digital transformation of industries and enhancing the integration of technology and industry [19][20] Group 3: Infrastructure and Urban Development - The article highlights the importance of coordinated regional development and urban renewal, as well as the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas [10] - The government is committed to enhancing the safety of key sectors, including energy and food supply chains, while ensuring energy supply during peak seasons [11] Group 4: Financial and Fiscal Policies - The Ministry of Finance is focused on utilizing more proactive fiscal policies to support consumption and expand domestic demand, while also deepening tax and financial system reforms [27][28] - There is a call for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to meet consumer demand and support economic recovery [33] Group 5: Employment and Social Security - The government is implementing measures to enhance employment opportunities, particularly in emerging sectors like the digital economy and green economy [39][40] - There is a focus on improving social security systems, including pension reforms and support for vulnerable groups [44][46]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing more proactive fiscal policies to enhance economic stability and growth, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds [1][3] - In the first half of the year, the proactive fiscal policy and other macro policies worked in synergy, contributing to a stable and improving economic situation in China [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance has implemented measures to support consumption and investment, including the issuance of 162 billion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds to stimulate consumer spending, resulting in over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales across five major product categories [2][3] Group 2 - The issuance of local government special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, expanding the scope of investment and supporting major project construction [2] - As of June 30, the cumulative issuance of new replacement bonds was 3.8 trillion yuan, significantly reducing the average interest cost of replaced debts by over 2.5 percentage points, thereby alleviating repayment pressure and freeing up fiscal space for development and public welfare [2] - The article highlights the need for a robust policy framework to support consumption in various sectors, including elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, while also promoting the healthy development of the duty-free retail business [3][4] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance employment stability through policies such as job retention subsidies, tax reductions, and employment support, while also focusing on improving educational resources and implementing childcare subsidies [3] - The article discusses the need for reforms in the fiscal and tax system, including the establishment of a modern budget system and improvements in the fiscal transfer payment system to enhance local financial autonomy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and improve the microeconomic cycle [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long special bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume as soon as possible [1] - There is a focus on leveraging fiscal funds to guide and stimulate economic policies, ensuring continuous release of policy effectiveness [1] Group 2: Support for Industries - The implementation of various fiscal and tax policies aimed at assisting enterprises is crucial for improving the microeconomic cycle [1] - The government will utilize special funds, tax incentives, government procurement, and investment funds to support the transformation of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the forward-looking layout of future industries [1] Group 3: Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance will guide and supervise local governments in replacing hidden debts and actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fang'an, emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and increased counter-cyclical fiscal regulation to enhance economic stability and growth [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special government bonds and local government special bonds to quickly generate tangible work output [1] - There is a focus on leveraging fiscal funds to guide and stimulate economic activities, ensuring that various policy effects are continuously released [1] Group 2: Support for Enterprises - The implementation of tax and fiscal policies aimed at assisting enterprises is crucial for effectively improving the microeconomic cycle [1] - The government will utilize special funds, tax incentives, government procurement, and investment funds to support the transformation of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the forward-looking layout of future industries [1] Group 3: Debt Management - The government will guide and supervise local authorities in managing hidden debt replacement, actively and prudently addressing local government debt risks [1]

中央政治局会议强调实施积极的财政政策，加大支出力度以稳经济。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，2025年将 继续加大财政支出，赤字规模增至5.66万亿元，推动经济长期发展。地方政府专项债和超长期特别国债 将加速发行，支持交通、能源等基础设施建设，促进消费增长。同时，税费优惠政策助力科技创新与制 造业发展。今年首季减税降费达4241亿元，推动高技术产业销售增速显著。中央对地方转移支付增长 8.4%，提升地方财政保障能力，强化民生及就业支持，助力经济高质量发展。国海证券首席经济学家 夏磊表示，我国宏观经济政策还留有后手，中央财政仍具备较大举债空间，将根据形势变化灵活调整、 积极应对，充分发挥财政逆周期调节作用，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。(经济日报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal budget reflects low revenue growth targets due to domestic and international pressures, while maintaining high expenditure levels to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments [1][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Targets - For the first budget, the 2025 general public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are set at 0.1% and 4.4% respectively, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2]. - The share of spending on livelihood and technology in the general public budget has increased, with livelihood spending accounting for 37.1% and technology spending reaching a historical high of 4.2% [2]. - For the second budget, the growth target for government fund revenue is 0.7%, while expenditure growth is set to increase to 23.1%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [2]. Fiscal Deficit Analysis - The estimated broad fiscal deficit for 2025 is approximately 11.4 trillion, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of about 8.0%, marking the highest level historically [3]. - The implied nominal GDP for 2025 is calculated to be 141.5 trillion, with a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% [3]. Recent Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Situation - In January-February, general public budget revenue declined, primarily due to negative growth in tax revenue, influenced by the early timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4%, with a notable acceleration in government debt issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal approach [4]. - Expenditures in technology (10.6%), education (7.7%), and social security and employment (6.7%) have shown significant growth, reflecting strong support for livelihood and technological innovation [4].

杨泽原｜中信证券计算机行业首席分析师 S1010517080002 计算机｜AI医疗：一张表看产业进展 陈俊云｜中信证券前瞻研究首席分析师 S1010517080001 前瞻｜从海外经验看IDC公司业绩兑现周期 过去一个季度，全球IDC板块经历了较大幅度的波动，美股市场代表公司受美国宏观经济以及关税政策等扰动股价出 现回调，而国内IDC公司则在四季报后大幅回撤，主要缘自市场对国内IDC公司全年收入以及Capex展望的担忧。参 考海外经验，头部公司在依靠网络效应实现客户粘性与收入优化的前提下，依旧保持了较为谨慎稳妥的资本开支规 划。国内IDC作为重资产业务，企业从capex投入到业绩兑现的传导周期较长，市场需要更为合理的预期，我们预计 25H2将是国内IDC公司业绩兑现的重要观察窗口，建议持续关注海内外一线IDC公司的中长期投资机遇。 风险因素：全球经济波动导致企业IT支出下行风险；AI进展不及预期风险；行业竞争持续加剧风险；全球扩张的地 缘政治风险；公司区域项目运营事故风险；核心技术人员流失风险；项目建设不及预期风险；数据中心业务上架率不 及预期风险；能源成本大幅提升风险等。 Top stories 我们对A ...