日本政坛正迎来历史性时刻。 党内鹰派与市场成双重制约 高市早苗在党内地位较弱，还面临着资深议员的制约。这些老将在政策上持更保守立场，包括被任命为 党副总裁的前首相兼财务大臣麻生太郎。麻生太郎一直主张维持债台高筑的日本财政纪律，避免过度依 赖宽松货币政策刺激增长。 据媒体周日报道，日本自民党和日本维新会已基本同意组建联合政府，为该国首位女首相的诞生铺平道 路。双方领导人高市早苗和维新会共同代表吉村洋文预计将于周一签署联盟协议。维新会议员将在周二 的国会首相选举中投票支持高市早苗，但该党暂不打算向高市内阁派遣阁僚。 高市早苗本月初赢得自民党总裁选举后，原本接任首相似乎板上钉钉。但执政26年的联盟伙伴公明党突 然退出执政联盟，迫使自民党与在野党展开一轮密集谈判。为拉拢维新会，自民党承诺继续推动禁止企 业和组织政治捐赠，并豁免食品的消费税。维新会此前提议对食品实行两年消费税减免。 但新政府的经济政策前景充满不确定性，这种跨党派联盟可能让高市早苗的经济计划在日益分裂的国会 中陷入僵局。 政治碎片化威胁经济议程 日本国会下议院定于10月21日选举新首相接替石破茂，高市早苗在缺乏强有力竞争者的情况下可能胜 出。但政治共识的 ...

Group 1 - The French government led by Prime Minister Borne fell due to failure to pass a confidence vote, highlighting increasing political division in the country [1][2] - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from "AA-" to "A+", indicating deteriorating debt repayment prospects [2][3] - The political instability in France is seen as weakening the government's ability to implement significant fiscal reforms, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 113.2% in 2024 to 121% by 2027 [3][4] Group 2 - The demand for French sovereign bonds may weaken further as the downgrade typically raises risk premiums, although some analysts believe the market has already priced in this impact [5][6] - The yield on 10-year French bonds has increased from 2.85% to 3.5% over the past year, reflecting investor awareness of France's fiscal challenges [6][7] - A rare inversion has occurred where yields on corporate bonds from major French companies are lower than those of sovereign bonds, indicating a shift in investor perception of risk [8]

Core Viewpoint - France is facing a political crisis with Prime Minister Borne's government on the brink of collapse, which may lead to a larger economic or debt crisis if a strong fiscal consolidation plan is not implemented [1][6] Political Situation - A confidence vote in parliament is scheduled for September 8, with Borne's government likely to lose due to unpopular austerity measures [1] - Major political parties in France have vowed to overthrow the government unless unexpected abstentions occur [1] - President Macron aims to avoid early elections by seeking a consensus among parties to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] Debt Concerns - Analysts warn that without a robust fiscal plan, France's public debt-to-GDP ratio could rise by 10 percentage points to 125% by 2030 [4] - The current political deadlock is pushing the economy towards a dangerous edge, with market concerns already evident as long-term government bonds face selling pressure [2][5] Economic Outlook - The French economy is described as lacking growth momentum, with domestic demand suppressed by high political uncertainty [5] - Any tightening of financing conditions could jeopardize the anticipated economic recovery expected in 2026 [5] - The immediate economic consequences are currently manageable, but long-term investor concerns about France's fiscal situation are growing [6]