【国际观察】 作者：徐瑞珂（北京外国语大学英语学院英国研究中心副教授、西藏民族大学外语学院〔南亚学院〕副 院长） 自2024年1月美国司法部门开始解封已故富商爱泼斯坦案相关文件起，其臭名昭著的跨国性交易网络相 关细节和牵涉人物便逐渐浮现。众多欧美政界名流被披露与爱泼斯坦沆瀣一气，案情在欧美国家不断发 酵。除美国外，该案还在英国、挪威、法国、斯洛伐克等国政坛引发多米诺骨牌效应。在欧洲，英国政 坛迄今受到的冲击最大，致使斯塔默政府陷入严重执政危机。 为了转移工党内外对斯塔默的怒火，斯塔默执政团队不得不"丢车保帅"，与任命曼德尔森事宜相关的政 府高官接连辞职。2月8日，首相办公厅主任摩根·麦克斯威尼宣布辞职，称他曾向斯塔默建议任命曼德 尔森为驻美大使，对这一任命建议"负有全部责任"。麦克斯威尼曾是斯塔默最为倚重的顾问，为工党赢 得2024年大选作出重要贡献，但因向斯塔默力荐曼德尔森，事发后持续面临工党内外的口诛笔伐。2月9 日，首相府通讯联络主任蒂姆·艾伦辞职，称此举是为了首相府组建新团队。艾伦是斯塔默政府的第四 任通讯联络主任，在曼德尔森被解除大使之职的前一周才走马上任，与曼德尔森的任命并无关联。 2月12日，英 ...

英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"。据央视新闻，英国首相斯塔默的公关总监蒂姆·艾伦于当地时间2月9日辞职， 这是24小时内首相办公室第二位高级官员离职。在此之前，英国首相办公室主任摩根·麦克斯威尼因英 国前驻美国大使彼得·曼德尔森涉爱泼斯坦案引咎辞职。受此影响，英国富时100指数、英镑兑欧元汇率 全线跳水，英国10年期国债收益率上升，接近去年11月以来高点。与此同时，对冲基金正通过期权市场 大举押注英镑进一步走弱。 麦克斯威尼在辞职公开信中说，他曾向斯塔默建议任命曼德尔森为驻美大使，而这一任命是错误的，曼 德尔森"损害"了工党和英国的利益。他对这一任命建议"负有全部责任"。 这场政治危机迅速蔓延至英国金融市场。当天，英国富时100指数一度走弱；英镑兑欧元大跌，创1月22 日以来最低水平；英国10年期国债收益率上升，接近去年11月以来高点。 与此同时，对冲基金正通过期权市场大举押注英镑进一步走弱。法国兴业银行全球外汇期权交易主管 Thomas Bureau表示，对冲基金流入"欧元兑英镑的方向单一，大量买入看涨期权"。2月5日，欧元兑英 镑期权交易量达到2019年以来最高水平，看涨期权（押注英镑走弱）的交易量比看跌期权多50 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices surged sharply, with spot gold reaching $5040.88 per ounce, up 1.5%, and spot silver at $81.601 per ounce, up nearly 5% [1][2] - The market anticipates a weak U.S. employment report, which has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, confirmed the expectation of weak employment data, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index [2][3] Group 2 - A political crisis in the UK has impacted the financial markets, with the resignation of two senior officials from Prime Minister Starmer's office within 24 hours. This has led to a decline in the FTSE 100 index, which fell by 0.26%, and the British pound dropped 0.5% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since January 22 [4][5] - The yield on UK 10-year government bonds has risen, approaching the highest level since November of the previous year [5]

【文/观察者网 王一】在因任命彼得·曼德尔森出任英国前驻美国大使引发争议、接连两名高级助手请辞 的背景下，要求英国首相斯塔默辞职的呼声愈发高涨。但当地时间2月9日，斯塔默明确拒绝辞职。 英国首相府9日确认，首相府通讯联络主任蒂姆·艾伦已提出辞职，称此举是意在"为新的团队让路"，以 更好地支持首相的工作。就在前一天，斯塔默最亲密的政治顾问、首相幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼宣布辞 职，称其为建议任命曼德尔森担任英国驻美大使承担"全部责任"。 英国路透社9日指出，爱泼斯坦案最新文件的曝光，使外界对斯塔默的判断力和执政能力产生质疑。当 天，斯塔默在唐宁街再次就任命曼德尔森一事表达"深切遗憾"，同时拒绝辞职。 "我们必须证明，政治可以成为一种向善的力量。"斯塔默在讲话中高度评价麦克斯威尼，称其为"朋 友"，并赞扬他帮助工党完成转型，在2024年大选中赢得了英国近代史上规模最大的议会多数席位之 一。 斯塔默说："我相信政治可以做到这一点，我也相信我们正在这样做。我们将带着信心继续前行，继续 改变这个国家。" 当地时间2月5日，斯塔默向爱泼斯坦案受害者道歉。 IC Photo 然而，政治压力并未减弱。苏格兰工党领袖阿纳斯·萨瓦尔 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2月9日晚间，黄金、白银直线飙涨。一方面，英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"；另一方面，美联储降息预期升 温。 黄金、白银，直线飙涨。截至发稿，现货黄金报5040.88美元/盎司，涨幅为1.5%；现货白银报81.601美 元/盎司，涨幅接近5%。国内期货夜盘开盘，沪金、沪银跟随国际市场高开。 一方面，市场预估美国即将发布疲软的就业报告，从而提高美联储降息预期。美国白宫国家经济委员会 主任哈塞特在接受CNBC采访时表示，预期就业数据会走低，但这不应引发恐慌。哈塞特此评论直接肯 定了美国就业数据疲软的事实，美元指数闻声大跌。 另一方面，英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"，影响该国金融市场。 据央视新闻，英国首相斯塔默的公关总监蒂姆·艾伦于当地时间2月9日辞职，这是24小时内首相办公室 第二位高级官员离职。在此之前，英国首相办公厅主任摩根·麦克斯威尼因英国前驻美国大使彼得·曼德 尔森涉爱泼斯坦案引咎辞职。 这场政治危机迅速蔓延至英国金融市场。英国富时100指数持续走弱，由红翻绿，截至发稿，跌幅为 0.26%；英镑兑欧元一度大跌0.5%，创1月22日以来最低水平；英国 ...

Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - Trump's recent comments to Indian Prime Minister Modi indicate a significant escalation in trade tensions, threatening to impose tariffs up to five times on Indian goods if India continues to import oil from Russia [4][6] - The U.S. has previously raised tariffs on certain Indian goods, and this latest threat represents a dramatic increase in pressure on India to choose between U.S. and Russian oil [6][10] - India's reliance on Russian oil for its energy security complicates its ability to comply with U.S. demands, as a sudden shift could disrupt its economic stability [8][10] Group 2: U.S. Actions in Venezuela - The U.S. plans to take between 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela, which is under sanctions, and Trump intends to oversee the sale and management of these resources [10][12] - The Venezuelan oil industry is in a fragile state due to years of sanctions and internal conflict, making it difficult to restore production capacity without significant investment [12][14] - U.S. companies are hesitant to invest in Venezuela due to the unstable political situation, despite Trump's encouragement for them to participate in the recovery of the oil sector [14][17] Group 3: Domestic Political Implications - Trump's aggressive foreign policy and trade tactics are causing significant political turmoil within the Republican Party, with concerns about potential impeachment if the party loses in upcoming midterm elections [17][19] - The Republican majority in the House is shrinking, and any loss in the midterms could severely hinder Trump's ability to implement his policies [19][21] - Rising inflation and economic pressures on American families are leading to dissatisfaction with Trump's focus on international issues rather than domestic concerns, which could impact his political standing [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's anti-corruption agency is conducting a search of the office of Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, amid growing pressure on President Zelensky to dismiss him due to alleged involvement in a corruption scandal [1][3]. Group 1 - The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine has authorized actions against Yermak as part of an ongoing investigation [3]. - President Zelensky is facing significant pressure to remove Yermak, who is considered a close ally and the "number two" figure in Ukrainian politics [3]. - The corruption scandal involving Yermak could potentially escalate into the largest political crisis Ukraine has faced since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. Group 2 - Yermak has publicly declared his innocence regarding the corruption allegations, stating that accusations against him often lack evidence [3].

Core Points - The diplomatic relations between Peru and Mexico have been severed due to Mexico granting political asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Bettsy Chávez, who is facing legal issues related to a failed coup attempt in 2022 [1][2][3] - The political situation in Peru remains unstable, with recent events including the impeachment of President Dina Boluarte and ongoing investigations into former President Pedro Castillo and Chávez [1][8][9] Summary by Sections Political Context - Bettsy Chávez served as Peru's Prime Minister for only 12 days before the impeachment of President Pedro Castillo, which marked a significant political upheaval in the country [1][4][7] - The relationship between Peru and Mexico has been tense since December 2022, when Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress and was subsequently impeached [2][3][5] Recent Developments - On November 3, 2023, Peru's Foreign Minister Hugo de Sela announced the severance of diplomatic ties with Mexico, citing the asylum granted to Chávez as an "unfriendly act" [2][3] - The Mexican government expressed regret over Peru's decision, asserting that their actions were legal and did not interfere with Peru's internal affairs [2][3] Legal Issues - Chávez was arrested in June 2023 for her alleged involvement in Castillo's coup attempt and was released on bail in September 2023 [1][7] - The Peruvian government is seeking a 25-year prison sentence for Chávez, while Castillo faces a potential 34-year sentence [6][8] Security Concerns - The political turmoil has been accompanied by a rise in organized crime in Peru, with extortion cases increasing dramatically from 2,396 in 2023 to 15,336 in 2024, a 540% rise [9] - The new interim president, José Yeri, has pledged to address the escalating security issues and combat organized crime [9]

Core Points - Madagascar's military has officially taken control of the government, citing a lack of respect for the constitution as the reason for their actions [1] - President Rajoelina has moved to a "safe place" due to threats to his personal safety but claims he will continue to manage domestic affairs [1] - The military has announced a two-year transitional period during which a new constitution and elections will be organized [1] Group 1 - The military's takeover was preceded by widespread protests against water and electricity shortages, which began on September 25 [2] - A mutiny occurred on October 11 at a military camp, leading to some soldiers joining the protests and demanding Rajoelina's resignation [2] - Rajoelina's departure from Madagascar was reportedly facilitated by France, which has fueled discontent among the youth due to his French nationality [2] Group 2 - Madagascar has experienced ongoing political instability since its independence, with significant events including the 2009 coup that led to Rajoelina's rise to power [3] - The political landscape in Madagascar has been characterized by factionalism, preventing a complete return to stability [3] - The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has previously intervened to help resolve political crises in Madagascar [3]

Core Points - The French government held its first working meeting with the new cabinet members, emphasizing the primary task of overcoming the current political crisis [1] - President Macron, currently visiting Egypt, urged all political parties to work towards stability [1] - Prime Minister Le Cornu announced the new cabinet list on the 12th, and on the 13th, far-right party National Rally and left-wing party France Unbowed submitted a motion of no confidence against the new government to the National Assembly [1]