日本政坛正迎来历史性时刻。 党内鹰派与市场成双重制约 高市早苗在党内地位较弱，还面临着资深议员的制约。这些老将在政策上持更保守立场，包括被任命为 党副总裁的前首相兼财务大臣麻生太郎。麻生太郎一直主张维持债台高筑的日本财政纪律，避免过度依 赖宽松货币政策刺激增长。 据媒体周日报道，日本自民党和日本维新会已基本同意组建联合政府，为该国首位女首相的诞生铺平道 路。双方领导人高市早苗和维新会共同代表吉村洋文预计将于周一签署联盟协议。维新会议员将在周二 的国会首相选举中投票支持高市早苗，但该党暂不打算向高市内阁派遣阁僚。 高市早苗本月初赢得自民党总裁选举后，原本接任首相似乎板上钉钉。但执政26年的联盟伙伴公明党突 然退出执政联盟，迫使自民党与在野党展开一轮密集谈判。为拉拢维新会，自民党承诺继续推动禁止企 业和组织政治捐赠，并豁免食品的消费税。维新会此前提议对食品实行两年消费税减免。 但新政府的经济政策前景充满不确定性，这种跨党派联盟可能让高市早苗的经济计划在日益分裂的国会 中陷入僵局。 政治碎片化威胁经济议程 日本国会下议院定于10月21日选举新首相接替石破茂，高市早苗在缺乏强有力竞争者的情况下可能胜 出。但政治共识的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass market is expected to experience a phased decline. Despite short - term factors boosting the market, weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory will lead to a market downturn, though the downside space at low levels is limited [2]. - The soda ash market is also likely to have a phased decline. The futures market's previous short - squeeze and subsequent short - covering rally may not be sustainable. High production, high inventory, and large delivery pressure on certain contracts will exert downward pressure on the market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of July 24, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% from July 17. The daily loss of float glass was 41,050 tons, down 2.73% month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. There are also potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. Potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [8][9][10]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises nationwide was 9.3 days, down 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement, and a few reported a further decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases (4.69%) month - on - month and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, 1.3 days less than the previous period. Markets in North China, East China, Central China, and South China all saw significant inventory declines [2]. Price and Profit - This week, most glass prices rose. In Hubei and Shahe, prices increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices in Shahe were around 1,240 - 1,290 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei area around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas around 1,160 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from petroleum coke was about 53 yuan/ton, and the profit from natural gas and coal fuel was about - 168 - 128 yuan/ton [19][21][27]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recently, glass sales have been good, and the market inventory has declined significantly. The de - stocking speed is comparable to that from September to October 2024, and the current futures increase is also similar. However, terminal orders have not improved significantly [33][34]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - This week, the overall trading in the domestic photovoltaic glass market improved, and the inventory decreased slowly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged from last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - Under the influence of the anti - involution policy, recent supply has decreased, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. As of the end of July, the actual capacity was about 90,500 tons/day, with 414 production lines in operation. The sample inventory days were about 32.59 days, down 9.08% month - on - month [46][47][51]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The start - up of soda ash production changed little, and the potential maintenance volume was currently small. The capacity utilization rate was 83%, down from 84.1% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 408,900 tons [54][56][57]. Inventory - The inventory was about 1.865 million tons. Light soda ash inventory was 74,200 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.123 million tons. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The spot market price increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton due to the hot futures - related spot procurement. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 35 yuan/ton [64][68][74]. Basis and Spread - High production and high inventory put pressure on near - term contracts. The basis was weak, and the spread faced significant pressure. The futures market rebounded following the glass market, causing the basis to weaken continuously [70][73].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]