Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 147,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [1][5] - The upward revisions of previous months' employment data further confirm the underlying strength of the labor market [5] Employment Growth - Despite the positive June figures, overall employment growth is showing signs of slowing down, indicating that companies are becoming more cautious in hiring due to economic uncertainties [6] - Employers are more inclined to retain existing staff rather than engage in large-scale hiring, reflecting a trend of "labor hoarding" [6] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly wage growth in June was 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9%, suggesting a decrease in wage inflation pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7] Structural Issues in the Labor Market - Significant disparities exist in unemployment rates among different demographic groups, with the Black unemployment rate rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites have decreased [8] - The number of long-term unemployed has increased to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, indicating ongoing challenges for certain labor segments [8] Industry Performance - Government employment increased by 73,000, particularly in state government education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs, highlighting the public sector and essential services as key drivers of job growth [9] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July significantly decreased [10] - The probability of a September rate cut also dropped from 98% to approximately 80%, reflecting confidence in the current labor market conditions [10] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong labor market performance reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, with market expectations shifting towards potential cuts in September or December [11] - Future non-farm data and inflation reports will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [12]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in April, rising from a revised 7.2 million in March to 7.39 million, surpassing the expected median of 7.1 million [1] - The growth in job vacancies primarily came from the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, as well as the healthcare and social assistance industries [1] - Despite a decrease in job vacancies in state and local education departments, there was an increase in federal government job openings [1] Group 2 - The increase in job vacancies, stable hiring, and low unemployment rates support the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy job market [1] - However, the time it takes for unemployed individuals to find jobs has lengthened, and economists anticipate a more noticeable softening in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [1]