相关报告 1.《 就业转向供过于求——8 月美国非农数 2025-09-06 据解读》 2.《政府就业被高估——7 月美国非农数据 解读》 2025-08-02 3.《政府支撑就业上升——6 月美国非农数 据解读》 4.《就业降温趋势不变 -- 5 月美国非农数 据解读》 5.《就业不断下修――4 月美国非农数据解 读》 2025-05-03 and Path Till and Till and State of the Same of the Same ■ 证券研究报告 【生元 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxina@ctsec.com 分析师 马乐怡 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090010 malv@ctsec.com 宏观月报 / 2025.11.21 核心观点 新增非农就业回升，薪资增速持平。9 月新增非农就业升至 11.9 万人, * 但前值再度小幅下修，与上次报告相比，7 月和 8 月两个月合计共下调 3.3 万 人。本月教育保健和休闲酒店仍是新增就业的主要支撑，多数行业新增就业 回升,其中政府和建筑业新增就业回升幅度最大。不过,随着接受递延辞职的 联邦员工正 ...

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended after 43 days, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill [1][2] - The new bill provides funding for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, but leaves nine budget items unresolved, indicating a potential future shutdown [4][6] - The shutdown has caused significant economic damage, with a projected 1.5% decrease in GDP growth for the quarter and an estimated permanent economic loss of $11 billion [1][2] Funding and Economic Impact - The temporary funding bill includes provisions for the Department of Agriculture, Department of Veterans Affairs, military construction projects, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2][4] - The Congressional Budget Office predicted that a six-week shutdown would lead to a 1.5% drop in GDP growth, highlighting the economic repercussions of the standoff [1][2] - The inability to collect key economic data during the shutdown may lead to long-term damage to the U.S. economic analysis and decision-making processes [7][8] Political Dynamics - The shutdown has intensified partisan divisions in Washington, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [6][9] - The Democratic Party's core demand for healthcare benefits was not fully addressed in the final agreement, leading to internal dissent among party members [3][4] - The political fallout from the shutdown may influence the upcoming midterm elections, although past shutdowns have shown that public memory of such events tends to fade quickly [6][9] International Implications - The prolonged shutdown has damaged the U.S.'s credibility on the global stage, potentially affecting its position as a leader in the international economic order [9] - The shutdown has raised concerns among international investors regarding the reliability of the U.S. as a stable market and financial system arbiter [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights that the acceleration of AI integration, weak consumer spending, and rising costs are driving companies to cut expenditures and adjust workforce structures, leading to significant layoffs in the U.S. job market [1][4][5] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs of 153,000 employees, a staggering increase of 183% month-over-month, marking the highest monthly total since 2003 and a 175% increase compared to the same month last year [1][3] - Year-to-date, approximately 1.1 million layoffs have been announced, representing a 65% increase from the previous year, making it the largest year for layoffs since the pandemic began [1][3] Group 2 - The technology sector is identified as the hardest hit, with 33,300 layoffs in October, nearly six times the number in September, primarily due to the impact of AI integration and automation [3][4] - The report indicates that the five industries with the highest cumulative layoffs this year are government, technology, warehousing, retail, and services, collectively accounting for over 70% of total layoffs [3] - The report suggests that the difficulty for laid-off workers to find new jobs is increasing, with longer job search cycles and reduced job supply, indicating a weakening momentum in employment growth [3][5] Group 3 - The current wave of layoffs is closely linked to the accelerated application of AI technology, which is reshaping workforce demand, particularly in the technology and media sectors [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a 62% probability of a 25 basis point cut, as ongoing weak employment data may prompt a more accommodative monetary policy [5] - Analysts believe that the combination of AI penetration, cooling consumer demand, and fiscal uncertainties is leading companies to adopt defensive measures, which may delay economic recovery [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the election of Anutin as the new Prime Minister of Thailand, supported by the People's Party, which holds nearly one-third of the seats in the lower house, leading to a minority government situation [1][2][4] - Anutin received 311 votes out of 490 total votes in the lower house, easily surpassing the required majority [2] - The People's Party has agreed to support Anutin under the condition that the new government must dissolve the lower house within four months, leading to new elections expected in February or March of next year [3][4] Group 2 - Anutin's leadership is seen as a potential opportunity to stabilize Thailand's political situation, although challenges remain due to the minority government structure [1][6] - The political landscape in Thailand is characterized by frequent power struggles and a lack of trust among political players, complicating Anutin's ability to govern effectively [6][7] - Economic growth in Thailand is under pressure, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of only 2% by 2025, significantly lower than neighboring countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - France is facing a political crisis with Prime Minister Borne's government on the brink of collapse, which may lead to a larger economic or debt crisis if a strong fiscal consolidation plan is not implemented [1][6] Political Situation - A confidence vote in parliament is scheduled for September 8, with Borne's government likely to lose due to unpopular austerity measures [1] - Major political parties in France have vowed to overthrow the government unless unexpected abstentions occur [1] - President Macron aims to avoid early elections by seeking a consensus among parties to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] Debt Concerns - Analysts warn that without a robust fiscal plan, France's public debt-to-GDP ratio could rise by 10 percentage points to 125% by 2030 [4] - The current political deadlock is pushing the economy towards a dangerous edge, with market concerns already evident as long-term government bonds face selling pressure [2][5] Economic Outlook - The French economy is described as lacking growth momentum, with domestic demand suppressed by high political uncertainty [5] - Any tightening of financing conditions could jeopardize the anticipated economic recovery expected in 2026 [5] - The immediate economic consequences are currently manageable, but long-term investor concerns about France's fiscal situation are growing [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

Economic Overview - Investors are closely monitoring employment data as a key economic indicator and a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2] - The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable [4] - The average hourly wage growth was 3.7% over the past 12 months, slightly lower than previous levels [4] Employment Market Dynamics - Nearly 90% of new jobs in the past two and a half years have been concentrated in three sectors: government, leisure and hospitality, and private education and healthcare [7] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating a slowdown in labor demand [7] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals remains at 1.1, consistent with pre-pandemic levels [7] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence rose in July due to easing concerns about the overall economy and labor market [9] - The percentage of respondents perceiving job scarcity reached a four-year high of 18.9%, while the perception of abundant job opportunities increased slightly [9] - The labor participation rate continues to decline, and temporary job positions are decreasing, signaling caution in the labor market [9] Future Projections - If non-farm payrolls increase between 120,000 and 180,000 with a rising unemployment rate, it may slightly increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [11] - A significant drop in non-farm payrolls below 100,000, coupled with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth, could confirm signals for a rate cut [11] - Gold may benefit from these conditions as a traditional safe-haven asset, potentially recovering above $3,300 [11]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 147,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [1][5] - The upward revisions of previous months' employment data further confirm the underlying strength of the labor market [5] Employment Growth - Despite the positive June figures, overall employment growth is showing signs of slowing down, indicating that companies are becoming more cautious in hiring due to economic uncertainties [6] - Employers are more inclined to retain existing staff rather than engage in large-scale hiring, reflecting a trend of "labor hoarding" [6] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly wage growth in June was 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9%, suggesting a decrease in wage inflation pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7] Structural Issues in the Labor Market - Significant disparities exist in unemployment rates among different demographic groups, with the Black unemployment rate rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites have decreased [8] - The number of long-term unemployed has increased to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, indicating ongoing challenges for certain labor segments [8] Industry Performance - Government employment increased by 73,000, particularly in state government education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs, highlighting the public sector and essential services as key drivers of job growth [9] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July significantly decreased [10] - The probability of a September rate cut also dropped from 98% to approximately 80%, reflecting confidence in the current labor market conditions [10] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong labor market performance reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, with market expectations shifting towards potential cuts in September or December [11] - Future non-farm data and inflation reports will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [12]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in April, rising from a revised 7.2 million in March to 7.39 million, surpassing the expected median of 7.1 million [1] - The growth in job vacancies primarily came from the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, as well as the healthcare and social assistance industries [1] - Despite a decrease in job vacancies in state and local education departments, there was an increase in federal government job openings [1] Group 2 - The increase in job vacancies, stable hiring, and low unemployment rates support the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy job market [1] - However, the time it takes for unemployed individuals to find jobs has lengthened, and economists anticipate a more noticeable softening in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [1]