Economic Overview - The UK economy contracted in September due to concerns over tax increases and a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, increasing pressure on the Labour government ahead of the critical budget announcement on November 26 [1] - The UK's GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month in September, against an expectation of 0%, and grew by 1.1% year-on-year, below the expected 1.3% [1] - The third quarter GDP growth was 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, below the expected 0.2%, and 1.3% year-on-year, also below the expected 1.4% [1] Sector Performance - In September, UK industrial output decreased by 2%, the largest decline since January 2021, with manufacturing output down by 1.7%, marking the biggest drop since April 2024 [1] - Seven out of thirteen manufacturing sub-sectors reported monthly declines, with the production of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers plummeting by 28.6% [1] - The electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sector also saw a decline of 3.4%, alongside a 3.4% drop in mining and quarrying [1] Business Investment - Business investment in the third quarter fell by 0.3%, better than the expected 0.7% decline, but marking the second consecutive quarter of decline, indicating ongoing weak corporate spending [1] - Year-on-year, business investment grew by only 0.7%, a significant slowdown from the previous quarter's 3% growth [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Recent economic signals have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England in December, with market expectations for a rate cut now at approximately 82% [1] - Disappointing GDP data may pave the way for the Bank of England to support further easing of monetary policy, creating conditions for a potential rate cut in December [2] - The anticipated fiscal tightening in the upcoming budget could range from 0.5% to 1% of GDP, which may further encourage market expectations for a rate cut, negatively impacting the British pound [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming UK budget announcement on November 26 is unlikely to be favorable for the British pound, regardless of the government's efforts to balance the budget [1]. Group 1: Economic Context - The UK is facing challenges such as weak business investment, rising unemployment, and slowing economic growth, which have contributed to the decline of the pound against the dollar [4]. - The unemployment rate has reached its highest level since the pandemic, further pressuring the pound [4]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the current consumer price inflation rate at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target [8]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implications - If Chancellor Rachel Reeves opts for significant tax increases to avoid higher yields demanded by bond traders, it may hinder economic growth and lead to a further decline in the pound [1]. - Reeves' recent comments suggest tax increases are imminent, which caused the pound to drop to a seven-month low against the dollar [5]. - The need for Reeves to create a substantial fiscal buffer to avoid spending cuts or further tax increases is critical for breaking the cycle of weak economic growth and damaging fiscal policies [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts express skepticism about the pound's recovery, with some maintaining short positions against the dollar due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [3]. - The options market reflects bearish sentiment, with traders betting on continued declines in the pound over the next month to a year [5]. - Despite potential short-term gains from profit-taking before the budget announcement, the long-term outlook for the pound remains pessimistic due to economic weakness and impending fiscal tightening [8].

Core Viewpoint - Since taking office in December 2023, President Milei's government has implemented a series of free-market reforms and strict fiscal austerity measures aimed at curbing high inflation and achieving fiscal surplus. While these policies have been positively received by international investors, they have also sparked public discontent due to subsidy cuts and factory closures. Following a loss in local elections in September, Milei's unexpected victory in the midterm elections has provided crucial backing for his aggressive austerity policies [1]. Group 1 - In the midterm elections, Milei's "Liberty Advances Party" achieved a significant victory with 40.8% of the votes, securing a crucial position in Congress to facilitate future economic reforms [6]. - The party's performance in Buenos Aires, traditionally a stronghold for the opposition, marked a significant political shift, with the party receiving 41.5% of the votes compared to the opposition's 40.8% [6]. - Despite the electoral success, Milei's government will still need to negotiate with other political forces in Congress to achieve legislative goals, as no coalition has a majority [6][7]. Group 2 - Argentina's economy remains highly dependent on agricultural and energy exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices and economic conditions [8]. - Although some economic indicators have shown improvement, such as a decrease in inflation and poverty rates, the cost of living remains high, leading to declining government approval ratings [8]. - A report indicated that economic activity in Argentina is expected to stagnate in the first half of 2025, with GDP showing a 0.1% decline in the second quarter [9]. Group 3 - Following political turmoil in September, the Argentine Central Bank intervened by selling over $1 billion in foreign reserves to stabilize the market [10]. - A historic agreement was reached with the U.S. Treasury for a $20 billion currency swap to bolster Argentina's foreign reserves and stabilize the peso [10]. - Concerns have been raised domestically regarding the dependency on U.S. assistance, with critics arguing that it may compromise Argentina's economic policy independence [11].

Economic Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, raising concerns about labor market deterioration[11] - Israel's real GDP grew by 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter[13] - Iran faces an electricity shortfall of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 MW, prompting the government to initiate hundreds of development projects in fisheries, mining, and ports[15] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank indicated that current interest rates should remain unchanged, with inflation in the Eurozone at 2.1% in August, slightly above expectations[9] - Egypt's central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points, bringing overnight deposit and loan rates to 22% and 23%, respectively, as inflation expectations stabilize[18] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September is as high as 98% following disappointing employment data[12] Political Developments - French Prime Minister François Béru's government collapsed after a no-confidence vote, marking the fourth prime minister to resign in over a year amid ongoing fiscal challenges[7] - Turkey has closed its ports and airspace to Israeli vessels and aircraft in response to actions in Gaza, escalating regional tensions[26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Fitch downgraded Poland's sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative, citing increased risks to public finances with projected deficits averaging 6.7% of GDP in 2024 and 2025[48]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Labour government has announced a significant increase in public spending across key sectors such as healthcare, defense, housing, and transportation, marking a departure from the austerity policies of the previous Conservative government [1][2] Group 1: Spending Plans - The government plans to invest "unprecedented" financial resources in public services from now until 2030, including an annual increase of £29 billion in the National Health Service (NHS) operating budget, with an average real growth rate of 3% [1] - The defense budget is set to rise to 2.6% of GDP by 2027 [1] - A £39 billion investment in affordable housing will be made through a 10-year plan, along with £10 billion in financial support from government housing agencies to attract private capital [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The UK's public debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 100%, with government borrowing estimated at £14.83 billion for the last fiscal year [2] - Interest payments on government debt have nearly doubled since 2018, now accounting for almost 10% of total spending [2] - Despite a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 2025, inflation remains high, indicating a fragile economic recovery [2] Group 3: Challenges and Criticism - Analysts highlight that the execution efficiency and funding effectiveness of the spending plan will be significant challenges for the Labour government [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of large infrastructure investments and whether they will yield sufficient returns to offset rising debt costs [2] - Opposition parties criticize the spending plan as "irresponsible" financially, warning it may lead to speculation about tax increases and could suppress private investment [3]