据美国彭博社11月21日报道，德意志银行警告称，日本首相高市早苗的大规模财政支出计划，已导致日本国债和日元汇率 同步大跌，反映出市场担忧该计划将恶化日本财政状况，引发外界对资本外逃失控的担忧，并让人联想起2022年特拉斯出 任首相时英国爆发的国债市场危机。 日本首相高市早苗（左）与英国前首相特拉斯（资料图）图源：外媒 德意志银行全球外汇研究主管乔治·萨拉维洛斯警告，如果日本国内对政府和日本央行维持低通胀承诺的信心丧失，购买日 本国债的理由将不复存在，随之将可能导致更具破坏性的资本外逃。 萨拉维洛斯将当前相关市场动向与2022年英国的"特拉斯风暴"作类比。当时，时任英国首相特拉斯提出的减税计划引发投 资者恐慌，几乎摧毁了英国债券市场，英镑兑美元汇率跌至37年最低点。特拉斯上任仅40多天就辞职，成为英国历史上 的"最短命"首相。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 报道称，日本政府即将公布新冠疫情以来最大规模的支出刺激计划，规模或将高达21.3万亿日元（约合人民币9610亿 元），远超市场预期。因此，日本10年期国债收益率已升至数十年来的最高位，30年期国债收益率已升至3.35%以上，而 本月初约为3%。日元汇率跌至今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading around 153.8000, with a slight decline of 0.19% as the market digests previous gains and awaits further signals regarding interest rate changes in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY opened at 154.1100 and closed the previous trading day at 154.1200, indicating a slight downward movement after reaching an eight-month high due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its current policy has created uncertainty regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, which may limit the appreciation of the yen [1]. - The market is currently cautious, preferring to wait for more information about potential interest rate hikes in December or early next year, especially in light of the new Prime Minister's expected aggressive fiscal spending plans [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains below the monthly high resistance zone of 153.25-153.30, with a potential for bearish trading if it breaks below the 152.00 level [2]. - A significant drop below 152.00 could lead to further declines towards the key support levels of 151.10-151.00, confirming a bearish trend [2]. - Conversely, if the USD/JPY can break through the 153.25-153.30 resistance zone, it may attempt to reclaim the 154.00 level, with potential extensions towards 154.50 and 154.75-154.80 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The UK Labour government has announced a significant increase in public spending across key sectors such as healthcare, defense, housing, and transportation, marking a departure from the austerity policies of the previous Conservative government [1][2] Group 1: Spending Plans - The government plans to invest "unprecedented" financial resources in public services from now until 2030, including an annual increase of £29 billion in the National Health Service (NHS) operating budget, with an average real growth rate of 3% [1] - The defense budget is set to rise to 2.6% of GDP by 2027 [1] - A £39 billion investment in affordable housing will be made through a 10-year plan, along with £10 billion in financial support from government housing agencies to attract private capital [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The UK's public debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 100%, with government borrowing estimated at £14.83 billion for the last fiscal year [2] - Interest payments on government debt have nearly doubled since 2018, now accounting for almost 10% of total spending [2] - Despite a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 2025, inflation remains high, indicating a fragile economic recovery [2] Group 3: Challenges and Criticism - Analysts highlight that the execution efficiency and funding effectiveness of the spending plan will be significant challenges for the Labour government [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of large infrastructure investments and whether they will yield sufficient returns to offset rising debt costs [2] - Opposition parties criticize the spending plan as "irresponsible" financially, warning it may lead to speculation about tax increases and could suppress private investment [3]