FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 欧美博弈升级，国内财政货币协同发力 FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 策略 商品和股指期货：整体中性。 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；当地时间1月17日，美国总统特朗 普在其社交平台"真实社交"上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出 口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至25%。并且他表示，这一关税 措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。特朗普拒绝说明是否会以武力夺取格陵兰，欧盟 周四将召开紧急峰会应对特朗普"夺岛"关税。对于市场担忧的欧盟反制措施，贝森特表示，欧洲抛售美债是"虚假 叙事"。2、美联储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独 立性，特朗普也表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。鲍威尔计划周三（1月21日）亲自出席最高法院针对美 联储理事Cook的 ...

Group 1 - The core agenda of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is to review the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking the start of a new five-year cycle [3] - The meeting emphasizes that the 15th Five-Year period is crucial for achieving the foundation of socialist modernization, highlighting the coexistence of strategic opportunities and high-risk periods [3] Group 2 - The meeting signals a shift in economic work priorities, placing employment stability above growth stability, with a focus on promoting employment for key groups such as college graduates, veterans, and migrant workers [4] - There will be an upgrade in fiscal and monetary policy coordination, including accelerated government bond issuance and maintaining ample liquidity in the monetary system, indicating potential further reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] - The meeting outlines a dual-track approach to stimulate domestic demand, focusing on both consumption and effective investment, with an emphasis on ensuring livelihood support as a foundation for consumption capacity [4] Group 3 - Consumption stimulation will shift from expanding goods to upgrading services, with policies targeting major consumption areas and new growth points in service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism, health care, and digital content [5] - The government will focus on high-quality construction of major strategic projects and infrastructure, with an emphasis on long-term project benefits and stimulating private investment [5] - The meeting highlights the need for capacity governance in key industries, such as steel and cement, and emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and AI [6] Group 4 - This meeting marks a transition from crisis response to medium- and long-term reconstruction, with a policy combination characterized by livelihood support, industrial upgrading, and risk clearing, suggesting a collaborative fiscal and monetary effort in the second half of the year [7]