通胀叙事可能持续强化 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [通胀Table_Title] 叙事可能持续强化 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 核心结论：春节后上证指数震荡上行，但风格上明显呈现出"科技叙事 弱，通胀叙事强"的特征，交易逻辑类似海外讨论较多的"HALO 交易"。 我们认为市场大方向仍然偏乐观，但短期可能进入考验期。3 月两会积极 政策预期提升，但从季节性规律来看，两会前两周左右市场大概率会有一 些波动。美国关税政策仍有不确定性，但人民币持续升值背景下可能不构 成短期核心矛盾。下一阶段可能有经济和盈利预期的演绎，开年宏观经济 的高频数据仍存在明显分化，资金进入关注政策效果和经济情况的阶 ...

通胀叙事可能持续强化 ——策略周观点 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [通胀Table_Title] 叙事可能持续强化 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 核心结论：春节后上证指数震荡上行，但风格上明显呈现出"科技叙事 弱，通胀叙事强"的特征，交易逻辑类似海外讨论较多的"HALO 交易"。 我们认为市场大方向仍然偏乐观，但短期可能进入考验期。3 月两会积极 政策预期提升，但从季节性规律来看，两会前两周左右市场大概率会有一 些波动。美国关税政策仍有不确定性，但人民币持续升值背景下可能不构 成短期核心矛盾。下一阶段可能有经济和盈利预 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 欧美博弈升级，国内财政货币协同发力 FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 策略 商品和股指期货：整体中性。 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；当地时间1月17日，美国总统特朗 普在其社交平台"真实社交"上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出 口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至25%。并且他表示，这一关税 措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。特朗普拒绝说明是否会以武力夺取格陵兰，欧盟 周四将召开紧急峰会应对特朗普"夺岛"关税。对于市场担忧的欧盟反制措施，贝森特表示，欧洲抛售美债是"虚假 叙事"。2、美联储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独 立性，特朗普也表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。鲍威尔计划周三（1月21日）亲自出席最高法院针对美 联储理事Cook的 ...

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1039.43 tons of gold as of November 20, a decrease of 4.29 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On November 20, the spot gold price closed at $4077.29 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.27%, reaching a high of $4132.48 and a low of $4054.99 during the day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the delayed September non-farm payroll report, showing an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected and above August's rate of 4.3%, indicating a "strong surface, weak interior" employment report [3] - This employment report has shifted market focus from inflation narratives to growth and employment narratives, impacting global market sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pricing logic of Chinese assets has significantly changed since the introduction of the "924" policy last year, leading to reduced risks in corporate earnings and promising medium to long-term performance [1] Investment Strategy - Following the opening of the interest rate cut window by the Federal Reserve in September, the outlook for the manufacturing sector may become clearer, with investment themes likely to extend beyond the AI technology sector to include manufacturing [1] Recommended Sectors - Attention should be given to cyclical goods under the inflation narrative, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which are expected to solidify valuation bottoms due to the "anti-involution" trend [1] - Industries with improved export resilience and relatively low price increases, such as machinery, electrical equipment, and pharmaceuticals, are also recommended for investment [1] - After the recovery of corporate earnings, there will be investment opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors, supported by positive expectations regarding consumer policies, which may lead to a rotation into consumer and real estate sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and transportation industry, recommending specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and China Shipbuilding [4][5]. Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a new high for the year, driven by rising shipping asset values and the impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil [4]. - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the transportation industry, noting a significant increase in oil tanker rates and a recovery in shipping prices [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the logistics and express delivery sectors, suggesting potential for market share consolidation among leading companies [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - The report indicates that the EU's sanctions on Russian oil are creating upward pressure on tanker rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 16% to $30,978 per day [5]. - The BDI increased by 23.4% week-on-week, closing at 2,052 points, supported by strong Capesize rates [5]. - Recommendations include China Merchants Energy and China Shipbuilding, with a focus on companies like GNK, GOGL, and SBLK [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing high growth, with companies like SF Holding and SF Express being recommended for their potential to optimize logistics costs [4]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the express delivery market, driven by policy support and demand recovery [4]. Aviation and Airports - The aviation market is expected to stabilize as supply chain recovery continues, with recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. - The report notes that if domestic airline ticket prices recover, it could further support airline profitability [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with rail freight increasing by 1.47% week-on-week [6]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping sector, recommending companies such as China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and Yangtze River Shipbuilding [1][2]. Core Insights - The shipping assets are resonating with the commodity market, with signs of stabilization in ship prices. The report highlights the potential for left-side layout opportunities as the Chinese shipbuilding industry begins to outperform its Japanese and Korean counterparts [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in the express delivery sector, suggesting that leading companies may optimize their market share through pricing strategies [1][2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as supply chain constraints ease, with recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 0.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.05 percentage points. The raw material supply chain services saw the largest increase at 4.22%, while the railway transportation sector experienced a decline of 0.50% [3][10]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.81% to 1,663 points, indicating strong performance across various vessel types [3][10]. 2. Shipping Sector Insights - VLCC rates increased by 10% to $26,813 per day, with Middle East routes rising by 16%. The report anticipates continued rate recovery due to increased cargo availability [1][2]. - The report notes that the Capesize vessel rates are rebounding, driven by strong demand for iron ore and coal, despite seasonal expectations [1][2]. 3. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry is maintaining high growth rates, with recommendations for companies like SF Express and JD Logistics. The report suggests that the upcoming policies may optimize logistics costs, benefiting leading firms [1][2]. 4. Aviation Sector - The aviation market is entering a peak season, with limited supply growth and natural increases in passenger volume expected to support airline revenues. Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Cathay Pacific [1][2]. 5. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a TTM dividend yield of 8.11% and Daqin Railway with a yield of 3.97% [21].

Geopolitical Risk and Market Reactions - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has shifted market focus from tariffs to geopolitical risks, leading to increased trading volatility and risk premiums[6] - During the week of June 7-14, WTI crude oil prices surged by 20%, reaching over $70 per barrel, effectively recovering from earlier declines[11] - The conflict has heightened inflation concerns, as rising oil prices could lead to further declines in risk assets like stocks and bonds if the trend continues[11] Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, heightened risk aversion is expected as the conflict escalates, with potential for further increases in risk premiums[16] - The current geopolitical situation is unlikely to reverse macroeconomic trends decisively, as the intensity of the Israel-Iran conflict is perceived to be lower than that of the Russia-Ukraine conflict[18] - Market reactions to geopolitical events often lead to overreactions, with oil prices expected to stabilize after initial spikes due to increased production and weak demand[19] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. inflation data shows a slight increase in CPI to 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI remaining stable at 2.8%, indicating manageable inflation pressures[26] - The core services sector continues to show signs of cooling, with year-on-year growth at 3.7%, suggesting that consumer demand remains weak[27] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, reflecting a cautious economic outlook[27] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines during the week of June 7-14, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down by 0.63% and 0.39% respectively[22] - International oil prices rose significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 13.1%, contributing to a general uptick in commodity prices, including a 3.17% rise in gold[22]