Core Viewpoint - The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield closed below the 30-year yield for the first time in nearly four years, indicating a normalization of the long end of the yield curve [1] Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - The long-term Treasury yields have been rising due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates [1] - The increase in yields is also attributed to bets that expanding fiscal deficits will lead to an increase in Treasury supply [1] Group 2: Historical Context - On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield was slightly higher than the 20-year yield, marking the first occurrence since October 2021 [1] - In 2022, the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle caused yields across all maturities to rise, with the 20-year yield at one point exceeding the 30-year yield by as much as 30 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS interest rate strategists maintain a bullish outlook on 10-year U.S. Treasuries due to ongoing economic growth risks and supportive CPI data from May and June [1] Economic Outlook - The market is perceived to underestimate the risks of an economic slowdown [1] - Recent moderate U.S. CPI data is expected to bolster the performance of 10-year Treasuries [1] Inflation and Wage Pressure - Although household inflation expectations have risen, this has not yet translated into significant wage pressure [1] Fiscal Policy Considerations - Adjustments to the "Beautiful Bill" by the U.S. Senate, aimed at further spending cuts, could alleviate market concerns regarding expanding fiscal deficits [1] Yield Projections - UBS anticipates that the yield on 10-year Treasuries may struggle to fall below 4% in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market has become the starting point for the rise in global ultra-long-term interest rates, with increasing interconnectivity between domestic and international rates being a significant factor [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds reached a record high of 3.135% during the auction on May 28, marking the highest since the auction's inception in November 2007 [3]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.21, indicating weak demand and the lowest level since July 2024 [3]. - The yield on newly issued 40-year bonds peaked at 3.675% on May 22, which is 1% higher than the end of 2024, reflecting a rapid increase in market rates [4]. Group 2: Global Impact - The instability in Japan's ultra-long-term bonds has led to fluctuations in the global bond market, with U.S. 30-year bond yields also rising to 5.1% on May 22, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - The heightened interconnectivity of domestic and international rates has made the Japanese market more susceptible to global events, particularly those originating from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The shift in major buyers of Japanese ultra-long-term bonds to overseas investors has contributed to the increased global market interconnectivity [5]. - Market participants are cautious, as many investors engage in strategic buying and selling during periods of volatility, making it difficult to predict market reversals [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The feasibility of reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds remains uncertain, with expectations of a potential decrease in supply that could lead to lower rates if confirmed [6]. - The upcoming auction of 30-year bonds on June 5 is critical, as disappointing results could lead to renewed market instability [6]. Group 5: Stock Market Reactions - The volatility in the bond market has begun to affect the stock market, with significant fluctuations in the Nikkei average on May 28 due to interest rate changes [7]. - The sensitivity of the stock market to bond market fluctuations raises concerns about overall market stability [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is facing multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and inflation pressures, as stated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [3] - Dimon mentioned that the current Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach is wise, suggesting that they should continue to observe the situation before making decisions [3] - There is a growing concern among policymakers that high inflation and high unemployment could occur simultaneously, making stagflation a more realistic risk [3] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has increased, currently trading at $3331.70 per ounce, with a rise of 0.46%, having reached a high of $3346.80 and a low of $3316.30 today [1][3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified at $3356-$3366, while support levels are noted at $3168-$3176 [3]

西班牙首相桑切斯：国防支出增加并不意味着税收会提高、社会支出会减少或财政赤字会扩大。 ...