Core Viewpoint - The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield closed below the 30-year yield for the first time in nearly four years, indicating a normalization of the long end of the yield curve [1] Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - The long-term Treasury yields have been rising due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates [1] - The increase in yields is also attributed to bets that expanding fiscal deficits will lead to an increase in Treasury supply [1] Group 2: Historical Context - On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield was slightly higher than the 20-year yield, marking the first occurrence since October 2021 [1] - In 2022, the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle caused yields across all maturities to rise, with the 20-year yield at one point exceeding the 30-year yield by as much as 30 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS interest rate strategists maintain a bullish outlook on 10-year U.S. Treasuries due to ongoing economic growth risks and supportive CPI data from May and June [1] Economic Outlook - The market is perceived to underestimate the risks of an economic slowdown [1] - Recent moderate U.S. CPI data is expected to bolster the performance of 10-year Treasuries [1] Inflation and Wage Pressure - Although household inflation expectations have risen, this has not yet translated into significant wage pressure [1] Fiscal Policy Considerations - Adjustments to the "Beautiful Bill" by the U.S. Senate, aimed at further spending cuts, could alleviate market concerns regarding expanding fiscal deficits [1] Yield Projections - UBS anticipates that the yield on 10-year Treasuries may struggle to fall below 4% in the coming months [1]

资料图 "日本债券市场成为了全球超长期利率上升的起点"，市场相关人士在日本40年国债招标以疲软的 结果结束后这样说。超长期国债在全球范围内持续呈现出不稳定的行情，而此次的特点是日本国 债成为震源地之一。背后原因是日本国内外利率的联动性增强…… 期限超过10年的日本长期国债收益率，成为了动摇全球债券市场的震源地。除了全球性财政担忧 扩大外，主要买家也变成海外投资者，因此日 本国内外利率变得更加容易联动。在5月28日实施 的日本40年期国债招标中，投资者需求疲软的情况十分明显。受此结果影响，日本股市出现抛售 情况，市场走向稳定的前景仍不明朗。 "日本债券市场成为了全球超长期利率上升的起点，目前正在受到非比寻常的关注"，日本40年国 债招标结束后的5月28日下午，花旗证券的日元利率营业部长嬉里奈这样表示。据称，当天除了 日本国内的债券投资者之外，平时交易美国国债等外国债券的参与者也纷纷前来咨询。 在日本财务省当天实施的40年国债招标中，最高中标收益率（按复利计算）为3.135%，创下 2007年11月启动40年国债招标以来的最高纪录。这反映出流通市场利率上升速度加快的态势已 波及到招标环节。在日本财务省发行的国债中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is facing multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and inflation pressures, as stated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [3] - Dimon mentioned that the current Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach is wise, suggesting that they should continue to observe the situation before making decisions [3] - There is a growing concern among policymakers that high inflation and high unemployment could occur simultaneously, making stagflation a more realistic risk [3] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has increased, currently trading at $3331.70 per ounce, with a rise of 0.46%, having reached a high of $3346.80 and a low of $3316.30 today [1][3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified at $3356-$3366, while support levels are noted at $3168-$3176 [3]