美元一夜蒸发10%！美联储降息引爆货币大战，普通人如何抓住人民币崛起红利？ 明明降息25基点是预料之中，美元为何崩得如此惨烈？真相藏在三个暗线里： 降息前两周，华尔街早已埋下超过50万手美元看跌期权（相当于押注美元下跌的合约），行权价卡在102关口。结果美联储决议一出，美元指数跌破102，做 市商为自保疯狂抛售美元现货，单日砸盘200亿美元！这种衍生品引发的连锁反应，好比本来只是小地震，却炸出了海啸。 别看现在美元跌得欢，美国明年可能放大招！国会预算办公室报告预测，2026年财政赤字将飙到1.8万亿美元（比2025年暴增20%）。一旦财政部被迫狂发 国债，美债收益率可能反弹，美元就会杀个回马枪。短期看情绪，长期看债务，这道理市场门儿清！ 金融市场又炸锅了！美联储一纸降息决议，让美元指数单日暴跌10%，创下五年来最惨纪录。人民币却逆势冲上6.82关口，跨境支付系统单日交易量飙升至 万亿级别——这场货币变局背后，藏着普通人逆袭的黄金机会！ 降息后，美元借贷成本骤降——3个月期LIBOR/OIS利差缩到15个基点。这意味着之前囤美元的企业和银行纷纷抛售换现，好比超市打折时大妈抢购，但这 次抢的是现金流。更绝的是美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial cycle adjustments lead to significant changes in asset allocation, with a systematic increase in the proportion of safe assets and a decrease in real estate allocation, while stock assets may see a systematic increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Cycle Adjustments - Financial cycle adjustments indicate a shift in economic growth models, emphasizing efficiency improvements from technological innovation and population quality [3][4]. - The analysis shows that after a peak in real estate prices, the proportion of safe assets increases by over 5 percentage points in the fifth year, while real estate allocation decreases by about 8 percentage points, and stock allocation increases by approximately 3 percentage points [2][3]. - In the sixth to tenth years post-peak, safe asset allocation rises by around 5 percentage points, real estate allocation declines by about 10 percentage points, and stock allocation increases by approximately 5 percentage points [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Changes - The adjustment in the financial cycle leads to a significant change in investor risk preferences, with a tendency for safe assets to increase in allocation [5][6]. - International experiences show that after a financial cycle peak, the proportion of real estate in household asset allocation decreases systematically, while stock-related assets increase [7][10]. - For example, in the U.S., even after real estate prices recovered to previous highs, the allocation to real estate decreased from 45.0% to 36.0%, while stock-related assets increased from 36.9% to 44.4% [8][10]. Group 3: Impact on Chinese Market - In China, the proportion of safe assets in urban households is estimated to rise from about 16% in 2021 to approximately 27% by Q3 2025, while real estate allocation is expected to decrease from 74% to 58%, and stock-related assets to increase from 9% to 15% [16][17]. - The shift in monetary policy, particularly the increase in fiscal contributions to money supply, is expected to support the rise of stock allocations while reducing the appeal of real estate investments [17][20]. - The analysis indicates that the stock market's elasticity to monetary supply has increased, while the elasticity of the real estate market has decreased, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards equities [22][24]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Valuation - The differentiation in return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) between traditional and new economy sectors has become more pronounced, with new economy sectors showing improvement while traditional sectors lag [51][52]. - The valuation of new economy sectors has increased significantly, while traditional sectors have seen little change, indicating a potential need for traditional sectors to improve their valuations to sustain market growth [56][57]. - The analysis of A-share market performance shows that the new economy sectors have outperformed traditional sectors, aligning with the broader trend of efficiency-driven growth [59].