This is the last post FOMC press conference uh before an important Supreme Court uh hearing next month. Can you talk about how you're hoping the Supreme Court will rule and uh I'm just curious why the Fed's been so reticent on such a pivotal matter. >> It's not something I I want to address here, Andrew.Um you know, we're not uh we're not legal commentators. It's it's before the courts and uh we think our we we don't think that we help matters by trying to engage as a as a as a as a public discussion of tha ...

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy is closer to neutral rather than slightly tight, indicating limited room for further easing without becoming overly accommodative [1] Group 1 - The inflation rate is currently too high at 3% [1] - There is a need to maintain pressure on inflation that exceeds the target while providing some support to the labor market [1] - Caution is advised for future actions regarding monetary policy [1]

Core Views - The Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns that hesitation in interest rate cuts could unnecessarily harm the labor market [2][5] - Both officials voted against the decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][9] - Their views contrast with Powell and other policymakers who believe the labor market remains robust, supporting a patient approach to interest rate adjustments [2][4] Labor Market Insights - Signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, with Waller noting an increase in downside risks due to stagnation in private sector job growth [2][11] - Bowman highlighted a decline in labor market vitality, indicating growing signs of fragility [2][5] - Non-farm employment continues to grow moderately, but the unemployment rate remains low, suggesting a mixed outlook for job stability [4][10] Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation is approaching the 2% target, particularly when excluding the temporary impacts of tariffs, with core PCE inflation showing significant progress [4][5] - Economic growth has slowed, with private domestic final purchases growing at a rate much lower than the strong levels seen in 2024, reflecting weak consumer spending and declining residential investment [4][5] - The overall economic conditions suggest that monetary policy should shift towards a neutral stance to mitigate risks of further economic slowdown and labor market damage [3][6] Policy Recommendations - The current restrictive monetary policy should be adjusted towards neutrality to support the labor market and achieve dual objectives of full employment and price stability [6][12] - Delaying action could lead to a deterioration in the labor market and further economic slowdown, making it crucial to act proactively [6][12] - The Fed should consider a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, allowing for data observation while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller voted against the recent interest rate cut, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead, arguing that tariffs only cause a one-time price level increase without leading to sustained inflation [1][2]. Economic Data Analysis - Current economic data suggests that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year and expectations of continued low growth through 2025 [2][3]. - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near the long-term estimate by the committee, and overall inflation, excluding temporary tariff effects, is slightly above the 2% target [2][3]. Labor Market Considerations - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, private sector job growth is nearly stagnant, indicating increased downside risks in the labor market [3]. - The potential for inflation is close to target, and the risks of inflation rising are limited, suggesting that action should not wait for a clear deterioration in the labor market [3]. Policy Recommendations - Waller suggests that if tariffs do not significantly impact inflation, the committee can continue to lower rates at a moderate pace, while also being prepared to pause if inflation or employment exceeds expectations [4]. - There is no justification for maintaining current interest rates, as it poses risks of a sudden downturn in the labor market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) indicates that the threshold for further monetary easing has become higher than before, and the stance has shifted to neutral, which does not imply a reversal in the direction of easing policies [1] Group 1 - The RBI's current neutral stance suggests a cautious approach towards monetary policy adjustments [1] - The statement emphasizes that a neutral position does not necessarily mean a tightening of monetary policy [1] - The central bank is likely to maintain a careful balance in its future policy decisions, reflecting changing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India has adjusted its monetary policy stance to neutral, indicating a shift in approach towards managing inflation and economic growth [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank's decision reflects a balanced view on inflation and growth, suggesting that it may not pursue aggressive rate hikes in the near term [1] - This neutral stance may provide more flexibility for the bank to respond to changing economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The adjustment in policy could lead to increased liquidity in the market, potentially stimulating investment and consumer spending [1] - A neutral stance may also signal confidence in the current economic recovery, which could positively impact investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor, Hawkesby, indicates that the monetary policy is approaching a neutral stance and that the focus is now on exploring the direction of future policies [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank is currently assessing its policy direction rather than making significant changes [1]