SHMET 网讯：美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼表达了他们的担忧，认为决策者在降息问题上的犹豫可能会对劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。在本周美联储连续 第五次维持基准利率不变的决议中，沃勒和鲍曼均投下了反对票。他们倾向于将利率下调25个基点。在周五发布的各自声明中，两人解释了自己反对的理 由，均强调劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。他们的观点与鲍威尔及其他政策制定者不同。鲍威尔等人仍然认为劳动力市场整体稳健，支持在调整利率方面保持耐 心。沃勒表示："我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎，在我看来，没有正确平衡经济前景的风险，可能导致政策落后于形势变化。"他指出，考虑到未来的 数据修正以及私营部门就业增长停滞，劳动力市场面临的下行风险正在上升。鲍曼则表示，"劳动力市场的活力正在减弱，并呈现出越来越多的脆弱迹象。" 鲍曼发文全文 2025年7月30日（周三），我对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变的决定投下了反对票。正如会后声明所指出的，我倾向 于将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 在剔除关税的暂时性影响后，通胀已明显接近我们的目标，而劳动力市场依然接近充分就业。今年经济增长放缓，就业市场也显现出活力减弱的迹象， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller voted against the recent interest rate cut, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead, arguing that tariffs only cause a one-time price level increase without leading to sustained inflation [1][2]. Economic Data Analysis - Current economic data suggests that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year and expectations of continued low growth through 2025 [2][3]. - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near the long-term estimate by the committee, and overall inflation, excluding temporary tariff effects, is slightly above the 2% target [2][3]. Labor Market Considerations - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, private sector job growth is nearly stagnant, indicating increased downside risks in the labor market [3]. - The potential for inflation is close to target, and the risks of inflation rising are limited, suggesting that action should not wait for a clear deterioration in the labor market [3]. Policy Recommendations - Waller suggests that if tariffs do not significantly impact inflation, the committee can continue to lower rates at a moderate pace, while also being prepared to pause if inflation or employment exceeds expectations [4]. - There is no justification for maintaining current interest rates, as it poses risks of a sudden downturn in the labor market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) indicates that the threshold for further monetary easing has become higher than before, and the stance has shifted to neutral, which does not imply a reversal in the direction of easing policies [1] Group 1 - The RBI's current neutral stance suggests a cautious approach towards monetary policy adjustments [1] - The statement emphasizes that a neutral position does not necessarily mean a tightening of monetary policy [1] - The central bank is likely to maintain a careful balance in its future policy decisions, reflecting changing economic conditions [1]

印度央行将货币政策立场调整为中性。 ...