——流动性观察第 121 期 银行业 买入（维持） 2026 年 2 月 4 日 行业研究 贷款"开门红"温和，资金面稳定无虞 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 金融数据或年末冲高，1 月"开门红"整体可期— —流动性观察第 120 期 11 月金融数据前瞻：信用活动延续回落态势——流 动性观察第 119 期 10 月金融数据前瞻：信贷季节性回落，社融、货 币降速——流动性观察第 118 期 9 月金融数据前瞻：社融增速回落，货币活化延续 ——流动性观察第 117 期 8 月金融数据前瞻： 社融增速或现拐点，存款活化 程度提升——流动性观察第 116 期 7 月金融数据前瞻：社融向上、贷款向下——流动 性观察第 115 期 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？——流动性观 察第 114 期 6 月金融数据前瞻：低基数效应下的季节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated financial data for December 2025, highlighting a slowdown in credit growth and the expected performance of loans, social financing, and monetary aggregates [6][8][10]. Group 1: Loan Growth - It is projected that new RMB loans in December will be around 800 billion to 1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 6.3% to 6.4%, slightly lower than the 990 billion from the previous year [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, indicating a return to expansion, which may positively influence credit demand [6]. Group 2: Social Financing - The expected new social financing for December is estimated to be between 2 trillion to 2.2 trillion, with a growth rate around 8.25% to 8.3%, lower than the previous year's high base of 2.85 trillion [8]. - The overall social financing growth rate for the year is projected to be around 8.3%, which remains relatively high [8]. Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth is expected to slightly increase, supported by year-end fiscal spending, while M1 growth is anticipated to remain subdued due to high base effects, projected at around 4% [9][10]. - Factors influencing M2 include increased government deposits and seasonal shifts in private sector deposits, while M1 is affected by the concentration of public demand deposits and market conditions [9]. Group 4: January Outlook - For January, a "good start" in loan growth is anticipated, with funding market rates expected to show a "low then high" trend, prompting the central bank to increase liquidity [10]. - The central bank may need to implement measures such as a one-time reserve requirement ratio cut to address liquidity needs, especially given the tax payment period and the expected increase in loan demand [10].