Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal increase in loan issuance in June, but highlights the ongoing pressure from insufficient demand, leading to a weaker credit growth outlook for July [6][7]. Group 1: Loan Issuance and Credit Growth - In June, new loans totaled 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 670 billion yuan, indicating a relative weakness in credit growth after the initial surge at the beginning of the year [6]. - For July, it is anticipated that new RMB loans will be less than 100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion yuan, resulting in a growth rate around 7% [6][7]. - The loan issuance pattern is expected to follow a "front low, back high" trend, with significant pressure on negative growth in early July due to the expiration of concentrated loans from June [6]. Group 2: Corporate and Retail Credit Dynamics - On the corporate side, short-term loans are expected to experience seasonal negative growth, while the demand for medium and long-term loans is declining due to ongoing economic pressures [7]. - The manufacturing sector is facing increased operational pressures, leading to a seasonal decline in financing demand, as indicated by the PMI remaining below the "expansion line" for four consecutive months [7]. - Retail credit growth remains weak, with low willingness among residents to increase leverage, particularly in mortgage loans, which are expected to show negative growth due to seasonal declines in the real estate market [7]. Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - It is projected that new social financing in July will be between 1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 300 to 500 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate around 9% [8]. - The government bond issuance is expected to be the main driver of social financing growth [8]. - M1 growth is expected to remain stable around 4.5%, while M2 growth may slightly decline to approximately 8.1%, reflecting seasonal shifts in deposits [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected trends in loan issuance, social financing, and monetary supply in June, highlighting a seasonal increase in credit and social financing due to government bond issuance and stable credit conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Loan Issuance - Loan issuance has slowed down since Q2 due to insufficient effective demand and government debt replacement, with June expected to see a seasonal increase in loan issuance, projecting an additional RMB 2.3-2.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 200-400 billion [2][3]. - The corporate sector is expected to remain a stabilizing force, with short-term loans increasing seasonally and medium to long-term loans growing steadily [3]. Group 2: Social Financing - Social financing is projected to increase by RMB 4-4.2 trillion in June, with a growth rate of approximately 8.9%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [4]. - The breakdown of social financing includes an estimated RMB 2.5-2.7 trillion in new loans, with government bonds contributing RMB 1.4 trillion to net financing, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 560 billion [4]. Group 3: Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to be slightly revised upwards in June, with M1 growth projected at around 3% and M2 growth expected to exceed 8% [5]. - Factors influencing these changes include seasonal shifts in government spending and the movement of deposits between different types of banks, particularly in response to recent interest rate adjustments [5].