以下文章来源于一丰看金融 ，作者王一峰、赵晨阳 一、预计12月新增人民币贷款8000~10000亿左右，月末增速在6.3%~6.4% 一丰看金融 . 分享经济金融领域大事小情，路边新闻 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 3Q25以来，需求不足压制下信贷投放节奏趋缓，贷款增量读数持续同比少增。12月综合季节性特征、票据 利率走势等因素，预计新增贷款在0.8~1万亿左右，规模较去年同期略少，贷款增速落在6.3%附近。社融 层面，政府债发行进入尾声，对社融增长贡献度下降，年末信贷季节性放量、贷款核销加大等对社融读数 支撑作用显现，社融增速或落于8.3%一线。货币方面，年末财政开支强度加大对一般存款形成回补，M2 增速或稳中有增；春节错位叠加较高基数影响，M1增速预计 ...

行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4188.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3773.19 | 证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2026-01-08 行业相对指数表现 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《银行业 2026 年度策略：新起点下的 结构性机遇》 - 2026.01.06 12 月金融数据前瞻 （2025.12.10-2026.01.05） 部分信贷或后置至次年 l 投资要点 （1）12 月新增信贷同比少增约 2700 亿元：预计 12 月新增人民 币贷款（信贷口径）约 7200 亿元左右，同比少增约 ...

行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 | 收盘点位 | | 4215.44 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3730.31 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 发布时间：2025-12-10 （3）预计 11 月新增社会融资规模约 21000 亿元，同比少增约 2000 亿元：参考银行对实体的信贷投放（剔除票据贴现、银行对非银 贷款以及境外人民币贷款）历史数据以及相关市场活跃情况，同时考 虑非银机构对实体的信贷投放预计社融口径新增人民币贷款约 3000 亿元，同比少增约 2000 亿元；11 月银行表内贴现明显回落，整体市 场供过于求，预计未贴现票据增量提升至 0 亿元左右；政府债券和企 业债券合计净融资 16000 亿元；IPO 和再融资合计约 550 亿元；信托 贷款、委托贷款和外币贷款或维持小幅负增，持平历史数据。 l 投资建议： 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 7 日 政策性工具起到信贷支撑作用 ——11 月金融数据预测 频率：每月 金融数据预测表 宏观点评报告 | 科目 | 2025 年 10 月 | 2025 年 11 月（预测） | | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 8161 | 21000 | | 社融增速 | 8.5% | 8.4% | | 信贷新增（亿） | 2200 | 2500 | | 信贷增速 | 6.5% | 6.4% | | M2增速 | 8.2% | 8.0% | | M1 增速 | 6.2% | 6.0% | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 十一月，预计人民币贷款新增 2500 亿，贷款增速约 6.4% 相关报告 1.开门红再现——1 月金融数据预 测 2.回归平静的信贷——2 月金融数 据预测 3.居民短贷超季节性多增——3 月 金融数据预测 4.票据融资或创新高——4 月金融 数据预测 5.社融增速或持平上月——5 月金 融数据预测 6.社融或同比多增——6 月金融数 据预测 7.社融增速年内达峰——7 月金融 数据预测 8.社融增速如期调整——8 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit activity due to insufficient demand and seasonal factors, with November loan growth expected to show a year-on-year decrease [1] - Government bonds remain the primary contributor to social financing, with the month-end growth rate projected to drop to approximately 8.4% [1] - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is forecasted to decline, leading to a slight widening of the M2-M1 growth differential compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Company Research on Andisu - Andisu is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, and has released the latest version of the "Mackev Nutrition Guide" to assist global feed manufacturers [2] - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

2025 年 12 月 4 日 行业研究 11 月金融数据前瞻：信用活动延续回落态势 ——流动性观察第 119 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 10 月金融数据前瞻：信贷季节性回落，社融、货 币降速——流动性观察第 118 期 9 月金融数据前瞻：社融增速回落，货币活化延续 ——流动性观察第 117 期 8 月金融数据前瞻： 社融增速或现拐点，存款活化 程度提升——流动性观察第 116 期 7 月金融数据前瞻：社融向上、贷款向下——流动 性观察第 115 期 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？——流动性观 察第 114 期 6 月金融数据前瞻：低基数效应下的季节性修复— —流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant decrease in new credit and social financing, with October new credit expected to be around 300 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 200 billion RMB [4][12] - The overall demand for credit is weak, particularly in corporate long-term loans, with both large and small enterprises showing reduced financing needs due to negative export data and trade friction [18][19] - The report suggests that the upcoming expiration of a large volume of fixed-term deposits may lead to a further decline in risk-free interest rates, prompting a shift of deposits towards insurance and other assets [29] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Situation - Closing index stands at 4286.01, with a weekly high of 4670.31 and a low of 3596.91 [1] Credit and Financing Data - October's new social financing is projected to be around 800 billion RMB, down approximately 600 billion RMB year-on-year [24] - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit growth, with the overall credit demand remaining weak [27] Investment Recommendations - Focus on banks with significant deposit expirations and potential margin improvements, such as Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [29] - Attention should also be given to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, including Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [29]

Credit and Financing Data - New social financing (社融新增) is expected to be around 1 trillion RMB in October, with a growth rate of 8.6%[6] - New credit (信贷新增) is projected to be approximately 370 billion RMB, maintaining a growth rate of 6.6%[1] - M2 growth rate is anticipated to be about 8.2%[9] Loan Breakdown - Residential loans are estimated to increase by around 40 billion RMB, significantly lower than the previous year's 160 billion RMB[4] - Corporate loans are expected to rise by approximately 230 billion RMB, with a notable improvement in the financing environment index[4] - Non-bank financial loans are projected to total around 370 billion RMB, down from 500 billion RMB in the same month last year[4] Market Trends - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with new home sales in 30 major cities down by 5.7% year-on-year[4] - The automotive market shows growth, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 2.387 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%[4] - Government bond net financing is expected to be about 528.1 billion RMB, down from 925 billion RMB in the same month last year[8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a continued decline in social financing growth, with a forecast of new RMB loans in September expected to be around 1.3 to 1.5 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 900 to 2900 billion [3][4] - The overall credit reading is expected to show a year-on-year decrease, with growth rates around 6.6% to 6.7% [4][5] - The report highlights that corporate credit is expected to increase, while retail loans are anticipated to remain weak, particularly in the housing market [6][8] Summary by Sections Credit Market Overview - The report predicts that September will see a seasonal increase in credit issuance, but the intensity of this increase is expected to be modest [3][4] - Social financing is projected to be between 3 to 3.2 trillion, with a growth rate of 8.5% to 8.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 5200 to 7200 billion [14][16] Corporate Lending - Corporate short-term loans are expected to increase, supported by improved business conditions, while medium to long-term loans may still see a year-on-year decline due to ongoing deflationary pressures [6][7] - The report notes that the issuance of government bonds is nearing its end, which may alleviate some pressure on corporate loan readings [7] Retail Lending - The housing market is showing mixed signals, with major developers reporting a sales increase, but overall sales remain at historically low levels [8] - Non-housing loans are expected to face challenges due to weak consumer sentiment and limited credit expansion among small businesses and individual entrepreneurs [9][8] Monetary Conditions - The report anticipates an improvement in monetary activation, with M1 growth expected to continue its upward trend, while M2 growth may slightly decline due to high base effects from the previous year [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal increase in loan issuance in June, but highlights the ongoing pressure from insufficient demand, leading to a weaker credit growth outlook for July [6][7]. Group 1: Loan Issuance and Credit Growth - In June, new loans totaled 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 670 billion yuan, indicating a relative weakness in credit growth after the initial surge at the beginning of the year [6]. - For July, it is anticipated that new RMB loans will be less than 100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion yuan, resulting in a growth rate around 7% [6][7]. - The loan issuance pattern is expected to follow a "front low, back high" trend, with significant pressure on negative growth in early July due to the expiration of concentrated loans from June [6]. Group 2: Corporate and Retail Credit Dynamics - On the corporate side, short-term loans are expected to experience seasonal negative growth, while the demand for medium and long-term loans is declining due to ongoing economic pressures [7]. - The manufacturing sector is facing increased operational pressures, leading to a seasonal decline in financing demand, as indicated by the PMI remaining below the "expansion line" for four consecutive months [7]. - Retail credit growth remains weak, with low willingness among residents to increase leverage, particularly in mortgage loans, which are expected to show negative growth due to seasonal declines in the real estate market [7]. Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - It is projected that new social financing in July will be between 1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 300 to 500 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate around 9% [8]. - The government bond issuance is expected to be the main driver of social financing growth [8]. - M1 growth is expected to remain stable around 4.5%, while M2 growth may slightly decline to approximately 8.1%, reflecting seasonal shifts in deposits [9][10].