证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2025-11-11 行业投资评级 强于大市 |上调 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4286.01 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3596.91 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 l 投资要点 （1）10 月新增信贷同比少增约 2000 亿元：预计 10 月新增人民 币贷款（信贷口径）约 3000 亿元左右，同比少增约 2000 亿元。新增 实体人民币贷款（社融口径）约 1000 亿元。10 月季初月信贷诉求整 体偏弱，同时受 9 月末冲量透支影响。 （2）新增信贷整体偏弱：预计对公中 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 10 日 信贷有望超季节性投放 ——10 月金融数据预测 频率：每月 金融数据预测表 | 科目 | 2025 年 9 月 | 年 10 月（预测） 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 35296 | 10000 | | 社融增速 | 8.7% | 8.6% | | 信贷新增（亿） | 12900 | 3700 | | 信贷增速 | 6.6% | 6.6% | | M2增速 | 8.4% | 8.2% | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 十月，预计人民币贷款新增 3700 亿，贷款增速约 6.6% | 定期报告 | | --- | 相关报告 1.开门红再现——1 月金融数据预 测 2.回归平静的信贷——2 月金融数 据预测 3.居民短贷超季节性多增——3 月 金融数据预测 4.票据融资或创新高——4 月金融 数据预测 5.社融增速或持平上月——5 月金 融数据预测 6.社融或同比多增——6 月金融数 据预测 7.社融增速年内达峰——7 月金融 数据预测 8.社融增速如期调整——8 月金融 数据预测 9.社融增速缓 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a continued decline in social financing growth, with a forecast of new RMB loans in September expected to be around 1.3 to 1.5 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 900 to 2900 billion [3][4] - The overall credit reading is expected to show a year-on-year decrease, with growth rates around 6.6% to 6.7% [4][5] - The report highlights that corporate credit is expected to increase, while retail loans are anticipated to remain weak, particularly in the housing market [6][8] Summary by Sections Credit Market Overview - The report predicts that September will see a seasonal increase in credit issuance, but the intensity of this increase is expected to be modest [3][4] - Social financing is projected to be between 3 to 3.2 trillion, with a growth rate of 8.5% to 8.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 5200 to 7200 billion [14][16] Corporate Lending - Corporate short-term loans are expected to increase, supported by improved business conditions, while medium to long-term loans may still see a year-on-year decline due to ongoing deflationary pressures [6][7] - The report notes that the issuance of government bonds is nearing its end, which may alleviate some pressure on corporate loan readings [7] Retail Lending - The housing market is showing mixed signals, with major developers reporting a sales increase, but overall sales remain at historically low levels [8] - Non-housing loans are expected to face challenges due to weak consumer sentiment and limited credit expansion among small businesses and individual entrepreneurs [9][8] Monetary Conditions - The report anticipates an improvement in monetary activation, with M1 growth expected to continue its upward trend, while M2 growth may slightly decline due to high base effects from the previous year [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal increase in loan issuance in June, but highlights the ongoing pressure from insufficient demand, leading to a weaker credit growth outlook for July [6][7]. Group 1: Loan Issuance and Credit Growth - In June, new loans totaled 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 670 billion yuan, indicating a relative weakness in credit growth after the initial surge at the beginning of the year [6]. - For July, it is anticipated that new RMB loans will be less than 100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion yuan, resulting in a growth rate around 7% [6][7]. - The loan issuance pattern is expected to follow a "front low, back high" trend, with significant pressure on negative growth in early July due to the expiration of concentrated loans from June [6]. Group 2: Corporate and Retail Credit Dynamics - On the corporate side, short-term loans are expected to experience seasonal negative growth, while the demand for medium and long-term loans is declining due to ongoing economic pressures [7]. - The manufacturing sector is facing increased operational pressures, leading to a seasonal decline in financing demand, as indicated by the PMI remaining below the "expansion line" for four consecutive months [7]. - Retail credit growth remains weak, with low willingness among residents to increase leverage, particularly in mortgage loans, which are expected to show negative growth due to seasonal declines in the real estate market [7]. Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - It is projected that new social financing in July will be between 1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 300 to 500 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate around 9% [8]. - The government bond issuance is expected to be the main driver of social financing growth [8]. - M1 growth is expected to remain stable around 4.5%, while M2 growth may slightly decline to approximately 8.1%, reflecting seasonal shifts in deposits [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected trends in loan issuance, social financing, and monetary supply in June, highlighting a seasonal increase in credit and social financing due to government bond issuance and stable credit conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Loan Issuance - Loan issuance has slowed down since Q2 due to insufficient effective demand and government debt replacement, with June expected to see a seasonal increase in loan issuance, projecting an additional RMB 2.3-2.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 200-400 billion [2][3]. - The corporate sector is expected to remain a stabilizing force, with short-term loans increasing seasonally and medium to long-term loans growing steadily [3]. Group 2: Social Financing - Social financing is projected to increase by RMB 4-4.2 trillion in June, with a growth rate of approximately 8.9%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [4]. - The breakdown of social financing includes an estimated RMB 2.5-2.7 trillion in new loans, with government bonds contributing RMB 1.4 trillion to net financing, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 560 billion [4]. Group 3: Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to be slightly revised upwards in June, with M1 growth projected at around 3% and M2 growth expected to exceed 8% [5]. - Factors influencing these changes include seasonal shifts in government spending and the movement of deposits between different types of banks, particularly in response to recent interest rate adjustments [5].