证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 04 日 信贷季节性回落 —2 月金融数据预测 总量研究/银行 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10243.2 | 9.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9635.5 | 9.5 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3.6 -6.5 6.2 相对表现 -4.2 -21.4 -15.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 银行 沪深300 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 相关报告 1、《不一样的"开门红"——金融风 向标 2026-W04》2026-02-01 2、《25 年理财规模扩张，增配存款 和基金-金融风向标 2026-W03》 2026-01-25 3、《金融风向标 2026-W02—信贷结 构改善与定向降息》2026-01-18 4、《信贷投放结构性凸显——1 月金 融数据预测》 马瑞超 S1090522100002 maruich ...

行业相对指数表现 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 银行 沪深300 证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2026-02-10 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 3971.44 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3824.91 | 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《部分信贷或后置至次年》 - 2026.01.08 1 月金融数据前瞻 （2026.1.6-2026.2.9） 预计社融同比多增 l 投资要点 （1）预计 1 月新增信贷整体小幅少增：预计 1 月新增人民币贷 款（信贷口径）约 51000-52000 亿元，相较上年同期小幅少增。新增 实体人民币贷款（社融口径）约 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report anticipates new RMB loans in January to be between 5.1 to 5.25 trillion yuan, with a corresponding loan growth rate declining to approximately 6.3% [4][6] - The expected new social financing scale for January is projected to be between 7.41 to 7.57 trillion yuan, maintaining a stock growth rate of around 8.3% [21][25] - The report highlights a strong performance in corporate activities, with expectations for increased credit supply due to a favorable lending environment and government policies [8][28] Summary by Sections 1. RMB Loans - New RMB loans are expected to be between 5.1 to 5.25 trillion yuan, with a growth rate declining to around 6.3% [4][6] - The monthly increase is projected to vary between a decrease of 300 million to an increase of 1.2 billion yuan [8] 2. Social Financing - The anticipated new social financing scale for January is between 7.41 to 7.57 trillion yuan, with a stock growth rate around 8.3% [21][25] - The report notes that the net financing scale of local government bonds and corporate credit bonds is expected to be 1.181 trillion yuan and 490.3 billion yuan respectively [25] 3. Liquidity - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to rise due to a low base effect, with M1 projected at 4.0% and M2 at 8.7% [26] - The report indicates that the increase in government and credit bonds' net financing will impact market liquidity [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in bank stock investment logic from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," emphasizing the attractiveness of high-dividend bank stocks during economic stagnation [28] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividends [28]

信贷投放结构性凸显 1 月金融数据预测 总量研究/银行 金融数据预测表 | 科目 | 2025 年 12 月 | 2026 年 1 | 月（预测） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 22075 | 70000 | | | 社融增速 | 8.3% | 8.2% | | | 信贷新增（亿） | 9100 | 48000 | | | 信贷增速 | 6.4% | 6.1% | | | M2 增速 | 8.5% | 8.5% | | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 一月，预计人民币贷款新增 4.8 万亿，贷款增速约 6.1% 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10243.2 | 9.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9635.5 | 9.5 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3.6 -6.5 6.2 相对表现 -4.2 -21.4 -15.9 资料来源：公司数据、招 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated financial data for December 2025, highlighting a slowdown in credit growth and the expected performance of loans, social financing, and monetary aggregates [6][8][10]. Group 1: Loan Growth - It is projected that new RMB loans in December will be around 800 billion to 1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 6.3% to 6.4%, slightly lower than the 990 billion from the previous year [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, indicating a return to expansion, which may positively influence credit demand [6]. Group 2: Social Financing - The expected new social financing for December is estimated to be between 2 trillion to 2.2 trillion, with a growth rate around 8.25% to 8.3%, lower than the previous year's high base of 2.85 trillion [8]. - The overall social financing growth rate for the year is projected to be around 8.3%, which remains relatively high [8]. Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth is expected to slightly increase, supported by year-end fiscal spending, while M1 growth is anticipated to remain subdued due to high base effects, projected at around 4% [9][10]. - Factors influencing M2 include increased government deposits and seasonal shifts in private sector deposits, while M1 is affected by the concentration of public demand deposits and market conditions [9]. Group 4: January Outlook - For January, a "good start" in loan growth is anticipated, with funding market rates expected to show a "low then high" trend, prompting the central bank to increase liquidity [10]. - The central bank may need to implement measures such as a one-time reserve requirement ratio cut to address liquidity needs, especially given the tax payment period and the expected increase in loan demand [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a continued weak demand for credit, with a projected decrease in new loans for December by approximately 270 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling around 720 billion yuan [5][13] - The anticipated new social financing scale for December is about 1.6 trillion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [6][25] - The report highlights a structural recovery in new credit, particularly in corporate loans, while consumer loan demand remains weak [20][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the banking sector is at 4188.79, with a 52-week high of 4670.31 and a low of 3773.19 [2] Credit and Financing Data - December's new credit is expected to be around 720 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 270 billion yuan [5][13] - The new social financing scale is projected to be approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 1.2 trillion yuan [6][25] - The report notes that corporate loan demand is expected to improve slightly, while consumer loan demand remains under pressure due to weak consumer confidence [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with significant deposit maturities and potential margin improvements, specifically recommending Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [7][30] - It also advises attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, such as Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [7][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the credit demand remains weak, with November's new credit expected to decrease by approximately 250 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling around 330 billion yuan [3][12] - The social financing scale for November is projected to be about 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 200 billion yuan [25][30] - The report suggests that the upcoming months will see a significant amount of fixed-term deposits maturing, which may lead to a further decline in risk-free interest rates for residents [5][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 4215.44, with a 52-week high of 4670.31 and a low of 3730.31 [1] Credit Market Analysis - New credit in November is expected to be around 330 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 250 billion yuan [12][19] - The demand for corporate loans is slightly improving, but overall credit demand remains low, particularly for residential loans due to weak consumer confidence [4][21] - The PMI for November shows slight improvement but remains below the threshold, indicating ongoing pressure in the corporate sector [12][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with significant maturing deposits and potential for margin improvement, such as Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [5][30] - It also suggests paying attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, including Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [5][30]

Financial Data Overview - In November 2025, new social financing (社融) is expected to reach approximately 2.1 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.4%[1] - New credit (信贷) is projected to be around 2500 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.4%[2] - M2 money supply is anticipated to grow by 8.0%, while M1 is expected to increase by 6.0%[6] Loan and Financing Insights - Residential loans are estimated to decrease by about 500 billion RMB, significantly lower than the previous year's 2700 billion RMB[2] - Corporate loans are expected to increase by approximately 3000 billion RMB, compared to 2500 billion RMB in the same month last year[2] - Government bond net financing is projected at around 12660 billion RMB, down from 18317 billion RMB year-on-year[5] Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the growth threshold[2] - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with new home sales in 30 major cities down by 33% year-on-year[2] - The corporate financing environment remains weak, with strategic emerging industries showing signs of decline in their purchasing manager index[2]

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit activity due to insufficient demand and seasonal factors, with November loan growth expected to show a year-on-year decrease [1] - Government bonds remain the primary contributor to social financing, with the month-end growth rate projected to drop to approximately 8.4% [1] - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is forecasted to decline, leading to a slight widening of the M2-M1 growth differential compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Company Research on Andisu - Andisu is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, and has released the latest version of the "Mackev Nutrition Guide" to assist global feed manufacturers [2] - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in credit activity, with November's loan growth expected to remain lower year-on-year. The social financing growth is primarily supported by government bonds, with a projected month-end growth rate of around 8.4% [4][10]. - The economic environment shows signs of weak recovery, with corporate production activities slightly improving and external uncertainties diminishing. However, overall demand remains weak [4]. - The report predicts that November will see new RMB loans between 250 billion to 400 billion, with a month-end growth rate dropping to 6.3% to 6.4% [4][13]. - The structure of credit shows a seasonal rebound in corporate loans, while retail loans continue to face pressure, particularly in the mortgage sector [6][7]. Summary by Sections Credit Activity - November's new RMB loans are expected to be between 250 billion to 400 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion to 300 billion, leading to a month-end growth rate of 6.3% to 6.4% [4][10]. - Corporate short-term loans are anticipated to see a seasonal increase, while medium to long-term loans will also rise but remain limited due to weak demand [6]. Social Financing - The report forecasts new social financing of 2 to 2.2 trillion, with a month-end growth rate of 8.4% to 8.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion to 360 billion [10][11]. - Government bonds are expected to contribute significantly to social financing growth, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase [11]. Monetary Supply - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is projected to decline due to a high base effect from the previous year [17]. - The report notes a shift in government deposits towards resident and corporate deposits, impacting the overall deposit growth dynamics [17].