Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Indian benchmark Nifty 50 index is expected to rise to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 15% from current levels, driven by tax cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Market Performance - The Indian stock market experienced its strongest rebound in five months, with the Nifty 50 index surging 1.24% to 26,205.3 points, marking the highest closing level in 14 months [1] - The BSE Sensex index also rose 1.21% to 86,609.51 points, ending a three-day decline, with both indices recording their best single-day performance in five months [2] Economic Drivers - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, alongside recent tax cuts that have begun to boost consumption, corporate debt growth, and automobile sales, collectively driving domestic demand [3][4] - The report highlights that while the current valuation of the Indian stock market is at a premium compared to other emerging markets, it has fallen below long-term averages after 14 months of underperformance [4] Trade Relations - Analysts believe that the likelihood of a US-India trade agreement is high, which could lead to a short-term revaluation of the stock market. Increased oil imports from the US and reduced purchases from Russia may eliminate the possibility of punitive tariffs from the US [5] - The potential removal of the additional 25% tariff is expected to boost investor confidence, attract foreign capital, support the rupee, and benefit the IT and pharmaceutical sectors [5] Sector Preferences - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on sectors such as materials, financials, consumer goods, hospitals, real estate, defense, and power, while holding a "underweight" stance on IT and pharmaceutical sectors [7] - The analysis suggests that industries benefiting from domestic consumption growth and infrastructure development will perform better, with the financial sector poised to gain from the interest rate cycle and increased corporate debt demand [7]

豆粕生猪：利空情绪消退 豆粕波幅收窄 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 曲位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 3059 | 3050 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | DCE中期: 05 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2759 | 2753 | 6.00 | 0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 3021 | 3025 | -4.00 | -0.13% | | | CZCE菜籽箱: 01 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2405 | 2412 | -7.00 | -0.29% | | 期货 | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2373 ...

美国总统特朗普：美国准备协助印度和巴基斯坦改善贸易关系。贸易是他们停止战斗的一个重要原因。 ...