XS.com高级市场分析师拉尼娅·古莱（Rania Gule）表示： "贸易紧张局势的升级通常会重新激发投资者对对冲资产的需求，尤其是在全球经济增长放缓、地缘政治极化加剧的背景下。" 古莱指出，贸易风险可能导致经济增长放缓，并削弱对白银的需求，但白银是一种"具有双重属性的金属"。它既具有投资属性，又具备工业用途。这 正是其近期比黄金更常被视为首选对冲工具的关键原因。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 今年以来，白银的涨幅继续超过黄金，并且看起来正成为投资者首选的"对冲资产"，价格有望录得连续第10个月上涨。这将是有记录以来最长的连续 月度上涨纪录。 周四截至发稿，现货白银在88.90美元/盎司附近徘徊。本月至今累计上涨约4.3%。 古莱称，白银正在"从一个由新闻驱动的市场，转向一个由基本面驱动的市场"，接下来的走势将"由货币政策、通胀预期以及美元动态等更为复杂的 因素共同塑造"。 她表示，目前的预期显示，美联储将在3月维持利率不变，市场定价显示今年余下时间内大约有60个基点的降息空间。如果这一情形实现，货币环境 将"对包括白银在内的贵金属愈发有利，因为持有无收益资产的机会成本正在下降" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a historic high of over $95 per ounce with a single-day increase of nearly 7%, is attributed to multiple converging factors, including trade tensions, monetary policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [1][10]. Market Background - Global silver inventories are critically low, with London vaults only sufficient for 1.2 months of global usage, indicating a severe supply crunch [3]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has been aggressively accumulating silver, increasing its holdings by 11.28 tons on January 16, raising total holdings to 16,073.06 tons, signaling strong demand [3]. Factors Driving Price Surge - **Trade Risk Aversion**: Heightened trade tensions, particularly due to U.S. tariffs on European countries and geopolitical statements from the U.S., have led to increased demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest potential rate cuts in 2026, weakening the U.S. dollar and making silver more expensive in dollar terms [5]. - **Industrial Demand Growth**: Silver's role has expanded beyond jewelry to critical applications in the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar energy, where demand is projected to exceed 5,000 tons in 2026, representing over 55% of total global demand [6]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The surge in silver prices has prompted some industries to explore alternatives to silver, such as copper and aluminum, potentially reducing industrial demand [8]. - While short-term gains are significant, there are warnings of a potential 20%-30% price correction due to speculative trading and overbought conditions in the market [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with expected annual price increases of 10%-15% driven by ongoing demand from the solar and electric vehicle sectors, alongside supportive monetary policies [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to decline, falling below 3200, indicating a potential ongoing sell-off driven by reduced trade-related risk aversion [1] Group 1 - The current market environment suggests that the decline in gold prices may persist as traders react to changing risk sentiments [1] - The ongoing battle between bullish and bearish positions in the gold market is prompting traders to reassess their strategies [1] - The TTPS team is actively analyzing the situation to provide insights on how traders should position themselves in this volatile market [1]