机构：国证国际 研究员：汪阳 事件：比亚迪电子发布2025 年上半年业绩，25H1 实现营业收入806.1 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 长2.6%；母公司拥有人应占溢利17.3 亿元，同比增长14.0%。 整体来看，在全球经济环境复杂多变的背景下，公司凭借多元业务布局和核心技术优势，实现了营收与 盈利的双增长，盈利增速显著快于营收，凸显出强劲的盈利韧性。 报告摘要 消费电子需求承压。25H1 公司消费电子业务实现收入609.5 亿元(yoy-3.7%)，其中零部件收入137.5 亿 元（yoy-9.8%），组装收入472.0 亿元（yoy-1.8%）,主要受全球消费电子市场整体需求承压，智能手机 等产品出货量增长乏力（根据Canalys 的数据，全球智能手机上半年出货量仅增0.1%）影响。公司聚焦 高附加值产品领域，在钛金属手机、折叠屏手机等高端机型中保持主要供应商地位。海外大客户业务表 现亮眼，组装业务市场份额持续提升，带动出货量和收入同比增长；同时，公司通过自动化技术优化精 密零部件业务，运营效率与盈利能力均有所改善。随着端侧AI 技术普及和折叠屏手机市场拓展（根据 IDC 的数据，中国折叠屏手机上半年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - Hezhong Electric is primarily an electric power electronics platform company, originally focused on the wind power sector and gradually expanding into photovoltaic, energy storage, and hydrogen energy sectors [2][16] - The management team has a strong technical background, with many members coming from Huawei and Emerson Network Power, which enhances the company's technological capabilities [8] Industry Insights - The AI data center (AIDC) market is expected to see significant growth, with global installations projected to reach 12 GW by 2025, leading to a corresponding market space of $18.2 billion for UPS and $5.8 billion for HVDC [4][10] - The HVDC market is anticipated to grow rapidly, potentially reaching nearly $30 billion by 2028, driven by its efficiency and stability advantages [4][10] - The demand for power supply solutions in AI data centers is increasing, with a focus on stability, efficiency, and power requirements [12] Financial Performance - Hezhong Electric has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue since 2018, although the company faces pressure in 2024 due to challenges in the renewable energy sector [7] - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with the large transmission business achieving profitability around 45% [7][16] - Revenue and profit growth are expected to rebound as the company explores new large transmission fields [7] Market Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the accelerating capital expenditures from major cloud providers in North America and domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent, which are expected to increase their capital spending in 2025 [3][10] - Hezhong Electric aims to leverage its large power technology to expand into AI data center power supply, soft start, pumped storage, and controlled nuclear fusion sectors [6][9] Competitive Landscape - The UPS market currently dominates the power supply sector, holding over 90% market share, but HVDC is expected to gain traction due to its lower costs and smaller footprint [13][15] - The penetration rate of HVDC is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, particularly in overseas markets [15] Future Projections - The company anticipates revenue growth in the wind power sector, with onshore wind expected to grow over 30% and offshore wind potentially doubling by 2025 [3][16] - The overall revenue and profit growth outlook for Hezhong Electric is positive, with projected net profits of $640 million in 2025, $760 million in 2026, and $930 million in 2027 [17] Conclusion - Hezhong Electric is strategically positioned to benefit from the growth in AI data centers and renewable energy sectors, with a strong management team and a focus on technological innovation [2][8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market in the next 3 to 6 months, indicating an early stage of asset revaluation and gradual stabilization of fundamentals [3][8]. Core Insights - Economic data for January-February 2025 shows a stable start, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in retail sales, driven by online channels [3][4]. - The report highlights a recovery in the home furnishing sector starting from early March, with key recommended companies including Gujia, Xilinmen, and Sophia [3][15]. - The technology growth sectors, particularly in computing power, cloud computing, and AI applications, are identified as key investment themes [3][8]. - The bond market is expected to present trading opportunities due to anticipated monetary policy easing after the second quarter [3][10]. - The commodity market is experiencing a mild recovery, with a strong outlook for non-ferrous metals and a bearish view on black metals [3][11]. Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with infrastructure investment up by 10% and manufacturing investment up by 9% [5]. - The real estate market shows a decline in investment, with a 9.8% year-on-year drop, but new housing prices are stabilizing [5][26]. - The retail sector shows a mixed performance, with essential goods maintaining growth while discretionary items like sports and office supplies perform well [3][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The beauty sector shows significant recovery, with online sales growth of 18% in January-February, highlighting strong performance from domestic brands [3][16][17]. - The dining and hotel industry is experiencing growth, with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in restaurant sales, although some brands face challenges [3][22][23]. - The agricultural sector, particularly in pork and poultry, is expected to benefit from policy-driven consumption recovery, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs showing improved market share [3][24][25]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and companies with stable regional economic prospects for investment [3][21]. - In the construction materials sector, companies like China National Building Material and Anhui Conch Cement are recommended due to potential price increases [3][27][28]. - For the home improvement sector, companies such as Three Trees and North New Materials are highlighted for their expected demand recovery [3][29].