Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is fundamentally an asset price comparison effect following the reduction of deposit interest rates, which has led to increased acceptance of equity assets as funds are released from low-risk investments [1][8]. Group 1: Underlying Logic of Deposit Migration - The driving force behind deposit migration stems from the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, prompting residents to seek new asset opportunities as old asset returns diminish [2][8]. - There exists a clear seesaw effect between resident deposits (especially fixed deposits) and deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with the timing and final flow influenced by the macroeconomic environment and risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Impact on Stock and Bond Markets - The current round of deposit migration began in June 2023, initially flowing into money market funds and bond funds, with a noticeable increase in equity fund inflows only after the "924" policy [2][8]. - Theoretically, the decline in risk-free interest rates should lead to a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets, but due to transmission lags or liquidity traps, these markets may experience staggered movements, as seen in previous years [8]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Current Deposit Migration - Unlike previous instances, the current liquidity bull market does not aim to devalue the currency, as the central bank has not engaged in extensive monetary easing but rather focused on guiding capital back into the market [2][8]. - The recent increase in risk appetite is a result of significant macroeconomic changes, with the central bank's continuous guidance on exchange rate expectations reinforcing domestic risk appetite and restoring the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights a marginal improvement in financing conditions and a stable, accommodative monetary environment as of June 2025 [2][3] - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly higher than May's 0.62 trillion yuan, while new social financing reached 4.20 trillion yuan compared to 2.29 trillion yuan in May [3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.9% in June, slightly up from 8.7% in May, and M2 growth was 8.3%, up from 7.9% in the previous month [3] Group 2 - Government bonds continued to support the growth rate of social financing in June, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.41 trillion yuan, although slightly down from 1.49 trillion yuan in May [3][5] - The demand for credit from the real economy remains weak, indicating that the effects of a loose monetary policy may take time to materialize [3] - The report notes that while corporate short-term loans showed seasonal improvement, medium to long-term loans remained low, suggesting weak investment intentions among enterprises [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the growth rates of M1 and M2 have both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, which may reflect a marginal improvement in economic activity [3][34] - The adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, with expectations that the adjustment period will be limited in time and space [3] - The report anticipates that the probability of continued tight funding conditions in July is low, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3]